OUTGOING DEFENSE MINISTER QUESTIONS 'SOCIALIST'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CARACAS 001483 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/27/2017 TAGS: PGOV MARR PREL VE SUBJECT: OUTGOING DEFENSE MINISTER QUESTIONS 'SOCIALIST' PLANS, ARMED FORCES GETS NEW LEADERSHIP CARACAS 00001483 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL COUNSELOR DANIEL LAWTON FOR REASON 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary. The Venezuelan president swore-in a new cadre of pro-Chavez military leaders to head the Venezuelan Armed Forces (FAN) on July 18 during a televised ceremony. His picks include hard-line Chavista and former head of the National Reserve and Mobilization Command Gustavo Rangel Briceno as Defense Minister and new commanders of the four branches of the FAN, among others. Chavez' appointments were overshadowed, however, by outgoing Minister Raul Isaias Baduel's speech cautioning against repeating the political and economic mistakes of past socialist regimes. Some military analysts applauded Baduel for voicing popular discontent against Chavez' efforts to politicize the FAN. Other analysts, though, criticized Baduel for leaving office without offering a state-of-the-military address. Chavez' non-confrontational response appears well-calculated to give the impression that the normally thin-skinned Chavez is open to criticism. End Summary. -------------- Loyalists to Head FAN -------------- ¶2. (C) President Chavez swore in new leadership for the Venezuelan Armed Forces (FAN) during a televised ceremony on July 18. Former head of the National Reserve and Mobilization Command Gustavo Rangel Briceno was sworn-in as Minister of Defense. During the event, Rangel spoke of the need to implement a "new military paradigm" in order to defeat the "real enemy" and subvert ongoing threats. Rangel replaced Army General Raul Isaias Baduel, perhaps one of the last remaining high-ranking officials to resist Chavez' efforts to politicize the military (reftel). Rocio San Miguel of the NGO "Citizens for Security" told PolOff July 20 that Rangel is as a hard-line loyalist and one of Chavez' trusted military implementers, but one with little to no influence in policy-making decisions. According to San Miguel, Chavez appointed Rangel to carry out a series of civil-military projects, similar to ones he oversaw as commander of the Reserves. She said the new minister is indebted to Chavez and owes his "meteoric" career path to the Venezuelan president. (Note: For comprehensive biographical information on Rangel please access the following DIA link: http://www.dia.smil.mil/intel/bios/venezuela/ rangel_briceno2 .mil.html End Note.) ¶3. (C) During the ceremony, Chavez also appointed new commanders of the Army, Air Force, Navy, and National Guard, among others. Incoming Army Commander Carlos Jose Mata Figuero previously served as Chief of General Staff of the FAN, Commander of the military academy, and Head of the Casa Militar, the military compound where Chavez' Honor Guard is stationed. He currently serves as the military coordinator for Chavez' "Morality and Enlightenment" program, an ideology and public education campaign. Incoming Air Force Commander Luis Jose Berroteran Acosta previously served as the Air Force's Inspector General. New Navy Commander Vice Admiral Zahim Ali Quintana Castro served as Commander of Naval Operations prior to his appointment. Major General Fredys Alonso Carrion was appointed head of the National Guard. He previously served as the Commander of the Maracaibo Regional Command. Army Major General Freites Reyes replaced Briceno as Commander of the Reserves. (Note: For comprehensive biographical information on the new FAN assignments please refer to DIA assessment IIR69020340 07 End Note.) -------------- Baduel Warns Against Socialism -------------- ¶4. (SBU) Chavez' appointments were overshadowed by outgoing Minister Baduel's speech in which Baduel indirectly criticized Chavez' plans to implement his ill-defined "21st Century Socialism." Specifically, Baduel cautioned against repeating the political and economic mistakes of now-defunct Soviet-era socialist regimes. During his opening remarks, Baduel noted that the term "socialism" does not have a uniform meaning, and argued that its ambiguity causes "uneasiness" among various sectors. Regarding politics, Baduel said Venezuela's socialist model should be CARACAS 00001483 002.2 OF 003 "overwhelmingly democratic; it should prove that a socialist mode of production is compatible with democratic forms of government, with checks and balances and division of powers." Baduel also urged BRV officials to "distance [themselves] from the Marxist orthodoxy that says democracy is an instrument of bourgeoisie domination." ¶5. (SBU) Baduel also spoke at length about the economic shortcomings of socialist regimes, particularly of the Soviet Union, and warned that Venezuela should be "vigilant" so as not to repeat them. Baduel stated that one of the primary failures of such regimes is their inability to engender sufficient wealth. Lamenting Venezuela's historical rent-seeking culture, Baduel called on the government to "generate wealth before redistributing it." Baduel advised against implementing "rash" economic changes, such as abolishing private property. He added, "We cannot permit our economy to be transformed into a form of state-led capitalism, where the state is the only owner of the means of production." Baduel stated such actions would lead to "anarchy, hunger, and rebellion" as was the case in the Soviet Union. -------------- The Media Storm -------------- ¶6. (C) Baduel's highly critical remarks received extensive coverage in the local press; however, there is widespread disagreement among military analysts as to the significance of his speech. Some analysts praised the former minister for making public the growing dissatisfaction among military officials with Chavez' efforts to politicize the FAN. Analysts in this camp expected Baduel's speech to serve as a springboard for more criticism from within the FAN's ranks, but this has yet to occur. Other military analysts contend that Baduel simply expressed his personal views and believe Chavez expected Baduel to criticize the new direction of FAN. Others, however, lambasted Baduel for leaving office without offering an assessment of his tenure as Minister of Defense. Military analyst San Miguel told PolOff that Baduel neglected to comment on pending arms purchases, pending military-related legislation in the National Assembly, and possible changes to conscription procedures and military curriculum. -------------- Chavez Praises Baduel's "Luminous" Discourse -------------- ¶7. (C) Whether Chavez was forewarned about Baduel's speech or not, he did not appear taken aback by his former minister's verbal attacks. Instead, Chavez thanked Baduel for his service to the FAN and praised his "luminous" remarks. Chavez later instructed Minster of Communications William Lara to make Baduel's speech widely available so it could be studied by the Venezuelan public. Government television stations, however, did not rebroadcast Baduel's remarks on news programs. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Baduel's trepidation about Chavez' plans to implement "socialism" likely reflects the sentiments of a significant portion of the FAN. However, the remaining independent print and television media have been largely responsible for keeping his comments in the public eye. Few, if any, military officials have echoed Baduel's concerns in recent days. The deafening silence of military officials in the face of sweeping changes to the FAN indicates that in the BRV there is much more to gain from appearing loyal to Chavez and much to lose in opposing Chavez' radical program. Separately, Chavez' non-confrontation reaction to Baduel's remarks showed Chavez' political astuteness and gave the impression that the usually thin-skinned Venezuelan president is open to criticism, even from within his own ranks. CARACAS 00001483 003.2 OF 003 FRENCH