SUMATE SETTING OUT A NEW COURSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001368 SIPDIS SIPDIS HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD DEPT PASS TO AID/OTI RPORTER E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM VE SUBJECT: SUMATE SETTING OUT A NEW COURSE REF: A. 06 CARACAS 2478 ¶B. CARACAS 161 CARACAS 00001368 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES FOR 1.4 (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: During a July 6 meeting, Sumate President Alejandro Plaz told Poloff about the electoral NGO's "Plan ABC," whereby Sumate volunteers will work with leaders in poor Chavista neighborhoods nationwide to help them identify and resolve community problems while instilling awareness of basic democratic principles. Looking ahead to the next couple of years, Plaz said he expected that an economic crisis and lack of a credible opposition would cause greater voter apathy, making vigilance of democratic principles essential. While Plaz claims that the Chavista neighborhoods are welcoming Sumate volunteers, if it feels threatened, the BRV could undermine Sumate's efforts at any time by re-launching one of the numerous dormant legal cases pending against the NGO and its leaders (reftels). -------------- Sumate Moves Beyond Electoral Support -------------- ¶2. (C) Poloff met with Sumate President Alejandro Plaz, at his request, July 6 to learn about the organization's latest plans. The electoral NGO has kept a low profile since the December 2006 presidential election. Plaz said the NGO has been consulting with various politicians, businessmen, and clergy to see where/how to best focus its volunteer network and efforts. As a result, Sumate has decided to re-focus its network on a program to educate residents in poor neighborhoods on the fundamentals of democracy. Working with various academics, Plaz said Sumate has developed a pilot course and trained 200 of its top trainers on the new material. These trainers are now working to identify community leaders, who once trained, would become Sumate's "democracy promoters." The NGO is specifically targeting communities in Chavista neighborhoods nationwide. Plaz said they were initially concerned about advertising the project under Sumate's name, but so far have not been rejected. -------------- The ABCs of Democracy -------------- ¶3. (C) The program consists of three phases, which Plaz called "Plan ABC." In Plan A, democracy promoters will meet with residents to identify the community's needs and draft proposals. They will present the proposals to either the local community council or a local business interested in deepening ties with residents. Once they receive funding, Sumate promoters will work with a list of contractors the NGO has developed to complete the project. In Plan B, the promoters will identify and help residents interested in starting their own business. For example, Plaz said Sumate has talked to leading national hardware store, EPA, and Banco Mercantil to see if they would be interested in collaborating with residents to open a series of mini hardware stores for people trying to either build or renovate their homes. In Plan C, the promoters would hold training workshops on themes related to democracy and citizen oversight ("controloria social"). -------------- "The Time is Now" -------------- ¶4. (C) Plaz thought this was the right time to launch "Plan ABC," to preserve what little democratic space was left. Plaz said that economists he has talked to predict a serious economic crisis within the next two years, as government expenditure outpaces revenue and Venezuelan oil production continues to fall. Once an economic crisis hits, Plaz expected Chavez to become more repressive. At the same time, he said the opposition's apparent inability to create a credible alternative to Chavez, along with continued distrust of the electoral system, would likely lead to increased voter apathy that would allow Chavez to stay in power despite growing discontent. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Sumate's public insistence that the BRV-run electoral system could not be trusted had begun to jeopardize its CARACAS 00001368 002.2 OF 002 credibility and relevance as an electoral NGO. Even the opposition began to think the organization had become too radical, and because of this (as well as jealousy over the media attention Sumate received),had begun distancing itself from the NGO. Sumate's effort to reinvent itself faces some hurdles. Despite Plaz' claims that Chavistas are welcoming Sumate volunteers, the BRV's judicial persecution of Sumate leaders and use of the courts to portray the NGO as a U.S. proxy may ultimately make Chavez' followers reluctant to associate themselves with any Sumate-related program. Even if successful, the BRV will likely seek to undermine the program by resuming the numerous dormant legal cases pending against the NGO and leaders Plaz, Maria Corina Machado, and Ricardo Esteban (reftels). FRENCH