PODEMOS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY: TOO MUCH CHAVEZ

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CARACAS 001073

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

HQSOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD
DEPARTMENT PASS TO AID/OTI (RPORTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/30/2027
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL VE
SUBJECT: PODEMOS NATIONAL ASSEMBLY DEPUTY: TOO MUCH CHAVEZ

REF: A. CARACAS 000820

B. CARACAS 001015

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Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT DOWNES,
REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Summary. National Assembly (NA) Deputy Ricardo
Gutierrez told PolCouns May 29 that his pro-Chavez party
Podemos is interested in reopening a dialogue with Embassy
officials. Gutierrez predicted that Podemos will weather
President Chavez' condemnation for not joining the Venezuelan
president's proposed United Socialist Party of Venezuela
(PSUV) and that recall efforts against two Podemos governors
will fail. He criticized Chavez for trying to replicate
Soviet and Cuban models of development and said he expected
Chavez to delay making major changes to the 1999 Constitution
until 2008. Gutierrez called ongoing student protests
"worrisome" and said the BRV needed to establish a dialogue
with opposition groups. The once loyal pro-Chavez Podemos
now constitutes a small, but concentrated, fissure within
Chavismo. End Summary.

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Room for Renewed Dialogue
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2. (C) PolCouns and POLOFF called on NA Deputy Ricardo
Gutierrez May 29 in his National Assembly office. Gutierrez
noted that he had consulted with Podemos Secretary General
Ismael Garcia, and Garcia has authorized him to speak on his
and the party's behalf. He also said the Podemos party is
interested in a reopening a "frank" dialogue with Embassy
officials. As former member of the inter-parliamentary
"Boston Group," Gutierrez said he and other deputies are
interested in reviving such contacts between the National
Assembly and U.S. Congress. PolCouns reinforced USG interest
in opening more channels of communication with BRV officials,
noting that we should find ways to engage on issues of common
interest, such as counternarcotics and counterterrorism
cooperation.

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Podemos' Political Future
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3. (C) While lamenting President Chavez' lambasting of
Podemos for refusing to dissolve and join the new United
Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) unconditionally (Ref A),
Gutierrez nevertheless expressed confidence that Podemos
would persevere as a party. He criticized Chavez for trying
to create the PSUV "by decree, not discussion." While
Podemos continues to support Chavez' "socialist revolution,"
the party will continue to insist that policy discussion be
broadened beyond Chavez and his closest advisors. Podemos
Secretary General Ismael Garcia urged the BRV on May 29 to

SIPDIS
open a dialogue with the four million opposition voters,
noting that not all of them are "useless, oligarchs, or
conspirators." Garcia chided the BRV to act with more
"deliberation, balance, and respect."


4. (C) Asked about the prospects of recall referenda against
Aragua Governor Didalco Bolivar and Sucre Governor Ramon
Martinez (both of Podemos),Gutierrez predicted that June
16-18 signature drive would fail to get the required number
of signatures to invoke the recall referendum. Gutierrez
asserted that both governors are still popular in their home
states. He also noted that Aragua and Sucre are small states
in which few people would identify themselves publicly as
"enemies" of the two Podemos governors. Gutierrez also
expressed doubt that there would be very many recall
referenda anywhere in Venezuela. He noted that the
CNE-supervised signature drive process, including the
cumbersome process of scanning fingerprints digitally, could
not process enough signatures in the time allotted.

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Differences with Chavez
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5. (C) Gutierrez stressed that Podemos is not just opposed to
the Venezuelan president's authoritarian style, but also has
genuine policy differences with Chavez. He said he is
opposed to Soviet or Cuban models of development that he
argued Chavez is seeking to emulate because "they simply did
not work." Gutierrez added that he speaks from experience
as a former member of the Communist Party (PCV) who visited
the Soviet Union and Cuba. Moreover, Gutierrez disagreed

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with Chavez' decision to expropriate CANTV, Venezuela's
largest telecommunications firm, and the electricity sector.
"If the private firms were doing a good job," Gutierrez
asked, "why take them over?" He also criticized Chavez'
efforts to centralize the delivery of social programs. "In
the end," Gutierrez sighed, "its always all about Chavez."

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Constitutional Changes
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6. (C) Asked about Chavez' intention to seek major changes to
the 1999 Constitution, Gutierrez said the drafting process is
a "black box" and most National Assembly members, including
him, have not yet been informed of the content of the
proposed reforms. Nevertheless, Gutierrez said Chavez would
not seek any changes until 2008 because he had already
detected potential opposition to some of his ideas, including
the elimination of term limits. Chavez' original goal was to
get a package of constitutional changes approved via a
referendum by the end of 20007. In addition, Chavez is
already pursuing so many other radical political and economic
changes and cannot focus his energy on reworking the
Constitution, according to Gutierrez

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Student Protests
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7. (C) Gutierrez called ongoing student demonstrations
protesting the BRV's May 28 closure of independent
broadcaster RCTV "worrisome." He said the BRV needed to
establish a dialogue with the opposition to calm tensions.
The BRV's only other alternative, Gutierrez continued, is to
"repress" the students and that would be politically
counterproductive. Addressing the National Assembly the same
day, Podemos Secretary General Ismael Garcia "Enough of
confrontations and mobilizations; I call for dialogue at this
difficult time in the country."

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Comment
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8. (C) President Chavez' decision to pillory the small
pro-Chavez parties that did not join the PSUV is opening real
fissures within Chavismo, giving us renewed access to Patria
Para Todos (Ref B) and Podemos leaders. That said, this
access is somewhat devalued by the fact that it is which
"schismatic" Chavistas, who have been expelled from Chavez'
circle of trust. This has liberated the remaining party
leaders of both pro-Chavez parties to be more critical of
Chavez' authoritarian style of governance and policies, both
in private and in public. Nevertheless, both parties face
uphill battles to remain politically relevant while neither
enjoying Chavez' favor nor joining the opposition.

BROWNFIELD