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IdentifierCreatedClassificationOrigin
07CANBERRA609 2007-04-20 07:23:00 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Canberra
Cable title:  

AUSTRALIA ON EAST TIMOR ELECTIONS

Tags:   PGOV KDEM TT AS 
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VZCZCXRO1569
PP RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHBY #0609 1100723
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FM AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7412
INFO RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0441
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI PRIORITY 0150
RUEHJA/AMEMBASSY JAKARTA PRIORITY 5072
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0981
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RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY PRIORITY 1759
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 2688
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 5055
RUEHBN/AMCONSUL MELBOURNE PRIORITY 4080
RUEHBAD/AMCONSUL PERTH PRIORITY 2468
RUEHDN/AMCONSUL SYDNEY PRIORITY 2109
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0505
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
					  C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 000609 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRRY
TOKYO FOR HANS KLEMM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TT AS
SUBJECT: AUSTRALIA ON EAST TIMOR ELECTIONS

REF: DILI 156

Classified By: DCM Daniel A. Clune, for reason 1.4 (b) and (d).



1. (C) SUMMARY: Although the Fretilin Party candidate won the
most votes in the first round of East Timor's April 9
presidential election, it appears the party has lost
considerable support and will be hard-pressed to increase its
vote totals for the second round, according to the East Timor
desk officer at the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
(DFAT). On April 18, the National Election Commission
announced the provisional national results, which gave
Fretilin candidate Francisco "Lu'olo" Guterres 27.89 percent
of the votes, compared to 21.81 for Jose Ramos-Horta
(reftel). Despite the numbers, this first-round result makes
a Ramos-Horta victory in the presidential election more
likely, the desk officer said, and points to a Xanana Gusmao
win in the parliamentary elections at the end of June. The
other parties are all anti-Fretilin and will not support its
candidate in the May 9 second round of voting. While the
opposition parties are claiming fraud and threatening to
boycott the second round, DFAT believes they will support
Ramos-Horta in order to insure a Fretilin defeat. END SUMMARY



2. (C) Lynda Worthaisong (protect), Director of DFAT's East
Timor Section, predicted April 20 that the campaign for the
second round would be hard-fought but there was no
expectation of violence. The results so far were bad news
for Fretilin, she said. Although its candidate won the first
round, it would not pick up much more support, given that the
other parties were anti-Fretilin. The opposition parties
were currently complaining about the election results and
threatening a boycott of the second round, but they were
likely to support Ramos-Horta, since it was in their interest
to see Fretilin defeated.



3. (C) This first round also indicated that Fretilin would
not do any better in the June parliamentary elections,
Worthaisong explained. Corrupt and bullying, Fretilin was
seen as representing the old East Timor. It had mishandled
the violence last year and had little in common with the
younger generation. Its candidate Lu'olo was an unknown,
unimpressive politician who was essentially a proxy for Party
leader Mari Alkatiri.



4. (C) This had been a good election for Opposition Democrat
Party candidate Fernando "Lasama" de Araujo, Worthaisong
noted. He had finished third with 19.18 percent of the
votes. Mildly-left, pro-justice idealists, the Democrats
represented the younger generation in East Timor and were a
credible alternative as a governing party. Renegade military
officer Alfredo Reinado, who has considerable support in the
countryside, was a Democrat supporter. Worthaisong thought
the Democrats would do well in the parliamentary elections
and hoped to see them as part of a governing coalition with
Gusmao.



4. (C) Overall Worthaisong remarked, Australia was impressed
with how the voting had gone, given that this was East
Timor's first attempt at managing its own election. The
final results for the first round would be announced April


23.

MCCALLUM