RUDD STAYS CONSERVATIVE AT LABOR CAMPAIGN LAUNCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L CANBERRA 001642 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/14/2017 TAGS: PGOV AS SUBJECT: RUDD STAYS CONSERVATIVE AT LABOR CAMPAIGN LAUNCH REF: CANBERRA 1632 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor John Crowley, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Ahead by eight points in the polls, Australian Labor Party (ALP) leader Kevin Rudd protected his lead at the ALP campaign launch in Brisbane November 14. Union leaders were kept in the background; past Labor prime ministers were introduced to the crowd; and Rudd hammered the themes that have taken the ALP to the brink of election victory: new leadership, abolishing PM Howard's labor-market reforms, and ratifying Kyoto. The one area in which he announced new policy was in education, an issue on which the Coalition seemed to have gained some traction when it announced education tax rebates at its launch on Monday (reftel). The event was upbeat but measured, and focused almost exclusively on Kevin Rudd, who was introduced by Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and Deputy ALP leader Julia Gillard. After the media had criticized Howard for stoking inflation fears with his AUD 8 billion spending announcement at the Coalition launch, Rudd did not attempt to match Howard dollar for dollar, instead claiming that the lower cost of his campaign promises was proof of his economic conservatism. Although not inspirational, Rudd's speech bolstered his credentials as a safe alternative to Howard. END SUMMARY. ITS ALL ABOUT KEVIN ¶2. (C/NF) Held in Brisbane, the ALP launch focused on the virtues of "Kevin" and his "new leadership" and "new ideas" as compared with the "stale" and "out of touch" Prime Minister John Howard. This was not surprising since it is Rudd who almost singlehandedly has given the ALP its strong position in the polls. Queensland Premier Anna Bligh used her introductory remarks to emphasize Rudd's roots in Queensland, where the Labor party must win at least five seats. Rudd, as was the case at the ALP National Conference in April, appeared wooden and did not seem to engage the party faithful as well as Howard. There appeared to be a lack of emotional connection between Rudd and his audience of ¶800. Compared to the build-up, his speech was subdued. So far ahead in the polls, however, Rudd did not need to be brilliant, just steady -- which he was. Unlike the Coalition launch, the ALP did not promote its front-bench, which sat quietly in the front rows (with former Labor leader Kim Beazley). The unionists, constantly attacked in Coalition advertising, were hidden away in the audience. In summary, it was all about "Kevin." RETURNING TO AUSTRALIAN VALUES AT HOME AND ABROAD ¶3. (SBU) Rudd promised a return to Australian values, particularly "the fair go." The "unfair" Howard labor market reforms, WorkChoices, would be abolished. A Rudd Government would have its "own voice" in foreign affairs and would uphold Australian values by working with the international community on issues such as climate change and poverty. It would immediately sign the Kyoto agreement. A Rudd Government would withdraw Australian combat troops from Iraq. THE ECONOMIC CONSERVATIVE AND EDUCATION VISIONARY ¶4. (SBU) Rudd was at his most aggressive when condemning the "reckless spending" of Howard's launch and when pledging to spend only a quarter of what Howard committed. Noting last week's interest rate rise, Rudd said that Howard's spending promises would put further upward pressure on inflation. Again, Rudd emphasized, he was an "economic conservative." The majority of Rudd's speech focused on the need for an QThe majority of Rudd's speech focused on the need for an "education revolution" to address Australia's long-term economic challenges such as the rise of China and India. He announced that an ALP government would ensure every high school student had access to a computer at school; provide an extra 450,000 training places to address skills shortages; and double the number of scholarships in universities. Rudd also announced a Clean Energy Plan to tackle climate change. COMMENT: RUDD PADS HIS LEAD ¶5. (C/NF) Both launches were slick, tightly stage-managed affairs which went off without embarrassment but the media reaction seemed to reflect the growing momentum for the ALP. On Monday, Howard announced what appear to be an interesting series of measures to address the problems of housing affordability and the cost of education but the headlines in the media the following day were about a profligate John Howard trying to spend his way out of trouble. Kevin Rudd gave a solid but unremarkable performance in which he promised nothing particularly innovative, yet the press the next day featured such headlines as: "Rudd's Smart Nation Drive" and "Rudd Claims Budget High Ground." For a quarter of the cost of the Coalition's launch promises, Rudd was able to boost his economic credentials and reaffirm his image as a leader with "fresh ideas" thanks to his education proposals. The fairness issue has been a big plus for Labor in this election. The public has turned against WorkChoices essentially because they perceive it to be unfair to the average worker. The Labor crowd at the launch was enthusiastic but it seemed they had a hard time knowing when to react to what was essentially a conservative, non-traditional Labor message. That said, the biggest applause of the day was for ending WorkChoices, providing dental benefits for working families, and withdrawing Australian combat troops from Iraq. MCCALLUM