ULFA CONTINUES ITS WAVE OF VIOLENCE IN ASSAM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CALCUTTA 000024 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ASEC PTER PHUM CASC MARR IN BG SUBJECT: ULFA CONTINUES ITS WAVE OF VIOLENCE IN ASSAM REF: CALCUTTA 00010, CALCUTTA 00016 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The ethnic-Assamese terrorist group United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) continued its wave of violence in Assam over the past week January 15-22, bringing total casualties to near 90. Assam Chief Minister Gogoi has been appointed head of the Unified Command, which includes army, police and paramilitary forces. The most recent attacks follow a January 16 visit to Assam by PM Manmohan Singh. Assam and GOI officials expect the violence to continue as the date for the Indian National Games approaches. End Summary. ¶2. (U) Attacks by ULFA continued over the week, with a number of the incidents taking place in or near Assam's capital, Guwahati. -- On January 17, two persons died and 26 others were injured in a blast in the busy Ganeshguri market in Guwahati. -- On January 19, ULFA insurgents hurled a hand grenade at a busy market place near Adabari Tiniali in Guwahati, injuring three persons. -- On January 20, ULFA triggered an explosion in Tinsukia, killing two and injuring 10. The bomb was planted in a motorcycle in a business hub. A man claiming to be an ULFA member later reportedly told local newspapers by telephone that ULFA would attack government officials if the Central Government did not cease its military crackdown on the organization. -- Also on January 20, ULFA shot and killed a local Congress Party leader in Tinsukia. ULFA had earlier issued a statement that it would target Congress Party officials in response to the Congress-led GOI's crackdown on ULFA. -- On January 21, two people were killed and seven wounded in two separate explosions in the state. A blast near a crowded vegetable market in Barpeta district killed two civilians. The same day, three people were injured in another blast near the parking lot of the railway station in Bongaigaon, triggered by a bomb placed in a parked motorcycle. ¶3. (SBU) On January 9, the GOI army launched an operation (code-named Rhino-II) throughout Assam, but focused primarily in upper Assam, including the Sivasagar, Dibrugarh and Tinsukia districts where ULFA killed 68 people in early January. Army troop strength now exceeds 30,000 in Assam. On January 15, Assam Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi became head of the Unified Command - comprised of the army, police and paramilitary forces -- for counter-insurgency operations in Assam (a departure from the traditional practice where the state's Chief Secretary would function as its head). Gogoi believed that the six-week ceasefire during August-September 2006 with the ULFA was a mistake, and had allowed ULFA to regroup and re-arm its cadres. According to media reports, the army and Assam police are capturing or killing ULFA terrorists in small batches of 1-2 persons at a time. ¶4. (U) The most recent spurt of attacks follows the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Assam on January 16, when he emphasized that although the Center still hopes that the ULFA would opt for peaceful negotiations, violence by the group will not be tolerated. The Prime Minister assured Hindi-speaking migrants - who had been targeted by ULFA - that they would be protected. Two days later, ULFA issued a warning to Hindi-speaking people to stay away from Assam during ULFA's war with the security forces. ULFA, along with other militant organizations like the Manipur People's Liberation Front, the Tripura People's Democratic Front and the Kamtapur Liberation Organization, has also called for a boycott of Republic Day celebrations of January 26. ¶5. (SBU) An Inspector General of Assam Police told Post that the violence is expected to continue until the National Games scheduled to be held in the state in February. By continuing the violence, ULFA is expressing its displeasure that its demands - such as the release of its detained leaders - are not being met, and that talks with Delhi not begun, he said. The IG also observed that ULFA's actions in sowing disorder and violence in Assam may be having an effect in the Hindi-speaking state of CALCUTTA 00000024 002 OF 002 Uttar Pradesh, where the Congress Party is making a serious bid for control in the state's upcoming elections. In his view, if Congress cannot get a handle on Assam, it may undermine its case that it can handle a dismal law and order situation in U.P. JARDINE