CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORS CRITICIZE CONDUCT OF

UNCLAS CAIRO 000924 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR WATERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM EG SUBJECT: CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORS CRITICIZE CONDUCT OF REFERENDUM REF: A. CAIRO 866 ¶B. CAIRO 870 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: AT LEAST FIVE GROUPS OF EGYPTIAN CIVIL SOCIETY ORGANIZATIONS MONITORED THE MARCH 26 REFERENDUM ON EGYPT'S CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS. THEIR REPORTS, WHICH WERE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MARCH 26, AND SUMMARIZED IN WRAP-UP PRESS RELEASES ISSUED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, PROVIDE FURTHER EVIDENCE OF THE WIDESPREAD IRREGULARITIES THAT CHARACTERIZED EGYPT'S MOST RECENT ELECTORAL PROCESS, AS WELL AS THE GAP BETWEEN THE OFFICIAL AND INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENTS OF VOTER TURNOUT. AN NDI MONITORING EXPERT IN CAIRO TOLD US THAT THE FACT THAT EGYPTIAN MONITORS WERE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND ISSUES CRITICAL REPORTS ON THE REFERENDUM WAS ONE BRIGHT SPOT IN AN OTHERWISE PROBLEMATIC PROCESS. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) THE MONITORS INCLUDED THE FOLLOWING GROUPS: --THE INDEPENDENT COMMITTEE FOR DEMOCRACY SUPPORT, A COALITION OF 12 NGOS, LED BY THE IBN KHALDUN CENTER (A MEPI GRANTEE),WHICH DEPLOYED 300 OBSERVERS TO MONITORS THE POLLS IN 24 OF EGYPT'S 27 GOVERNORATES. --THE EGYPTIAN COALITION FOR DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT (ECDS),A USAID-FUNDED COALITION OF NINE NGOS, LED THE NAQIB CENTER, WHICH DEPLOYED 330 MONITORS IN 26 GOVERNORATES. --THE EGYPTIAN ORGANIZATION FOR HUMAN RIGHTS (EOHR) DEPLOYED AN UNPUBLICIZED NUMBER OF MONITORS IN CAIRO, ALEXANDRIA, AND THE DELTA. --THE EGYPTIAN ASSOCIATION FOR SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY (EASD),A PAST MEPI GRANTEE AND CURRENT BENEFICIARY OF USAID FUNDING, DEPLOYED AN UNPUBLICIZED NUMBER OF MONITORS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. --THE EGYPTIAN CENTER FOR WOMENS RIGHTS (ECWR) DEPLOYED A SMALL NUMBER OF OBSERVERS IN THE GREATER CAIRO METROPOLITAN AREA. ¶3. (SBU) ALL OF THE MONITORS IDENTIFIED THE FOLLOWING PROBLEMS WITH THE REFERENDUM: --LOW TURNOUT: INDEPENDENT MONITORS' ESTIMATES, BASED ON EXITS POLLS AND OTHER INDEPENDENT ASSESSMENT OF VOTER DATA, VARIED FROM A HIGH OF SEVEN PERCENT TURNOUT TO A LOW OF TWO PERCENT. THESE ESTIMATES STAND IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE OFFICIAL RESULTS OF 27.1 PERCENT TURNOUT. --MISTAKES IN VOTER REGISTRATION LISTS: THERE WERE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF INACCURACIES ON THE VOTER LISTS INCLUDING MISSING NAMES AND REPEATED NAMES, AS WELL AS VOTERS WHO REPORTED BEING ABLE TO VOTE SEVERAL TIMES AT DIFFERENT STATIONS. --LACK OF INDEPENDENT SUPERVISION OF POLLING STATIONS: IN MANY INSTANCES, RULING PARTY OFFICIALS APPEARED TO BE IN CHARGE OF VOTING STATIONS, WITH THE TACIT OR EXPLICIT APPROVAL OF THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS. --ILLEGAL GET-OUT-THE VOTE OPERATIONS: MONITORS REPORTED MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF NDP OFFICIALS USING VEHICLES REGISTERED WITH THE GOE OR WITH REGISTERED NGOS TO PROVIDE MASS TRANSPORT OF VOTERS TO THE POLLS. (UNDER EGYPTIAN LAW, IT IS ILLEGAL FOR POLITICAL PARTIES TO USE RESOURCES BELONGING TO THE GOVERNMENT OR NGOS TO FACILITATE VOTING.) --DENIAL OF ACCESS BY MONITORS TO POLLING STATIONS AND/OR VOTE COUNTING: DESPITE THE GOE'S ASSURANCES THAT CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORS WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO POLLING STATIONS, THERE WERE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF LOCAL AUTHORITIES DENYING ACCESS TO THE POLLS BY MONITORS. --REPORTS OF VOTE BUYING: THERE WERE SCATTERED REPORTS OF NDP OFFICIALS OFFERING MODEST INDUCEMENTS (LE 20 (ABOUT $3.50),TICKETS TO SOCCER GAMES, OR SMALL PORTIONS OF MEAT) TO VOTERS TO VOTE YES. (COMMENT: THE REPORTS OF VOTE BUYING WERE RELATIVELY RARE COMPARED TO THE 2005 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS, WHEN CONTENDING CANDIDATES OFTEN FOUND THEMSELVES IN BIDDING WARS TO SECURE VOTES. THE OPPOSITION BOYCOTT OF THE REFERENDUM LIKELY LED TO LOWER INCIDENTS OF VOTE BUYING, BUT ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THE LOW TURNOUT. END COMMENT.) --LATE OPENINGS AND EARLY CLOSINGS OF VOTING STATIONS: THE VOTERS' LIMITED ENTHUSIASM FOR PARTICIPATING IN THE REFERENDUM SEEMS ALSO TO HAVE EXTENDED TO MANY OF THE POLL WORKERS. THERE WERE MULTIPLE REPORTS OF POLLING STATIONS REFERENDUM THAT DID NOT ADHERE TO THE OFFICIAL OPENING AND CLOSING TIMES. --INTIMIDATION OF PROSPECTIVE VOTERS: THERE WERE SCATTERED REPORTS OF NDP OFFICIALS TELLING VOTERS THAT A FAILURE TO VOTE COULD RESULT IN PENALTIES INCLUDING FINES. ¶4. (SBU) AN EXPATRIATE MONITORING AND OBSERVATION EXPERT (PROTECT) WORKING FOR THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE--WHO PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN SUPPORTING CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORING OF THE 2005 ELECTIONS, BUT WAS PROHIBITED FROM ASSISTING THE 2007 REFERENDUM MONITORS, DUE TO THE GOE'S RESTRICTIONS ON NDI--OFFERED THE FOLLOWING ASSESSMENT. THE EXPERT OPINED THAT, DESPITE THE LIMITED PREPARATION TIME, THE ABSENCE OF OUTSIDE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE, AND LIMITED DONOR FUNDING, THE REFERENDUM MONITORING WAS EVIDENCE OF A "GROWING ABILITY BY CIVIL SOCIETY" TO PLAY A ROLE IN EGYPT'S POLITICAL PROCESSES. HE CHARACTERIZED THEIR WATCHDOG ROLE AS "THE ONLY SUCCESS STORY FOR EGYPT'S REFERENDUM." DESPITE THE VARIOUS FACTORS THAT WORKED AGAINST THE MONITORS, THE NDI EXPERT CREDITED THE MONITORS WITH "CLEARLY PORTRAYING THE LEVEL OF MANIPULATION AND TRANSGRESSIONS IN THE REFERENDUM, WHICH IS STRONG INDICATOR OF HOW BAD EGYPTIAN ELECTORAL PROCESSES REALLY ARE." RICCIARDONE