EGYPTIAN REACTIONS TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S JANUARY 10

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000090 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MOPS EG IZ SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN REACTIONS TO PRESIDENT BUSH'S JANUARY 10 IRAQ POLICY SPEECH, SADDAM EXECUTION REF: STATE 3592 Classified by Minister Counselor for Economic and Political Affairs William R. Stewart for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Reaction to President Bush's January 10 Iraq speech has so far been muted from both official and private sources, yet the general tenor of opinion among contacts and media sources is one of pessimism that an additional twenty thousand U.S. troops will end the violence in Iraq. During a January 11 introductory meeting, the DCM delivered reftel demarche to newly appointed MFA Assistant Minister for American Affairs Ambassador Hatim Seif-Al-Nasser, stressing the need for Arab support to strengthen the Iraqi government. Despite misgivings on USG Iraq policy to date, Seif-Al-Nasser expressed optimism that the expected surge of U.S. troops to Iraq could lead to an eventual de-escalation of violence there. Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the normal GOE spokesman on such issues, is away in Turkey for bilateral meetings, and has not spoken out about the USG plans, apart from warning publicly while in Ankara against "foreign intervention" in Iraq. Working level GOE contacts believe the steps outlined by the President are inadequate to alter the political crisis among Iraqi factions, and that the U.S. is simply laying the groundwork for its departure. A comprehensive political reconciliation program is required, they argue, to end the blood-letting there. ¶2. (U) Other Egyptian contacts have been equally blunt. Academic Dr. Nabil Fawzy, a Egyptian-Canadian citizen formerly a professor at the University of Ottawa and now in Alexandria, expressed deep anger, fear, and frustration over the president,s speech, and said the policies of the Bush administration in the Middle East were bringing "anarchy to the whole world." He said he feared for his children,s safety and future. President Bush simply did not understand the Middle East, in general, and Iraq in particular. "Why doesn't the Administration listen to experts like us?" Meanwhile, former Egyptian Ambassador to Washington and current Chair of the Egyptian Council of Foreign Affairs Council, Ambassador Abed Raouf al-Reedy, told Xinhua: "The American war on Iraq is a mistake which led to very grave consequences in Iraq. I don't think increasing troops would help the situation there. It's a continued mistaken policy. President Bush took his own way, regardless of the domestic opposition from the Democrats and anti-war passions among Americans, because he is unwilling to admit his failure on the Iraq issue. The more he pushes on, the more mistakes he makes," added Reedy. Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa, in Madrid for a conference on the Arab-Israeli conflict, has also not spoken publicly yet on the new U.S. policy initiative in Iraq. ¶3. (C) Local reactions to events in Iraq have been strongly, and negatively, affected by the handling of Saddam Hussein's trial and eventual hanging. Local views have been colored by that incident, and have led many Egyptians to conclude that the U.S. is either purposefully causing strife in Iraq, or is incompetent in its handling of the situation there. Independent Member of Parliament Gamal Zahran (protect) told poloff on January 11 that "people view what happened to Saddam as an assassination, not an execution." Amy Choubaki, an analyst at the Al Ahram Center for Strategic Security Studies (protect) told poloff that "the execution in particular has raised Shia-Sunni sensitivities in Egypt, and increased people,s allergy to Iran. People believe a strong Iranian hand directs Iraq's Shi,a, and that a Shi,a hand was behind Saddam's execution." Such events have resulted in a direct decrease of sympathy on the Egyptian street for Iran, particularly with regard to Iran,s development of nuclear weapons. Six months ago, many Egyptians were supportive of Iran, but this is no longer the case, she concluded. Asked about the President's speech, both Zahran and Choubaki stated that they found it "uninspiring," and warned that U.S. credibility was suffering "immeasurably" as a result of U.S. policy in Iraq and elsewhere in the region. RICCIARDONE