CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: VOTER TURNOUT MINIMAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000866 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EG SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM: VOTER TURNOUT MINIMAL REF: A. CAIRO 858 ¶B. CAIRO 816 CLASSIFIED BY: MINISTER-COUNSELOR FOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS WILLIAM R. STEWART, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) IT APPEARS THAT ONLY NEGLIGIBLE NUMBERS OF VOTERS TURNED OUT FOR THE MARCH 26 NATIONAL REFERENDUM ON EGYPT'S AMENDMENTS TO THIRTY-FOUR CONSTITUTIONAL ARTICLES. THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF VIOLENCE, AND PROTESTS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO SMALL DEMONSTRATIONS AT A FEW LOCATIONS IN CAIRO AND ALEXANDRIA. AS OF 5:30 PM LOCAL TIME (POLLS CLOSE AT 7:00 PM),WE ESTIMATE NO MORE THAN 3-5 PERCENT VOTER TURN OUT. THE ELEVEN EMBASSY TEAMS DEPLOYED THROUGHOUT CAIRO AND OTHER MAJOR EGYPTIAN CITIES (ALEXANDRIA, TANTA, ZAGAZIG, MANSOURA, LUXOR, PORT SAID) OBSERVED UPWARDS OF 50 POLLING STATIONS WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF VOTERS PRESENT. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, THE OPERATIONS CENTER OF THE QUASI-GOVERNMENTAL NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR HUMAN RIGHTS HAS STATED THAT TURNOUT SO FAR IS ROUGHLY 3 PERCENT. THE INDEPENDENT COMMITTEE FOR DEMOCRACY SUPPORT, A COALITION OF TWELVE NGO'S LED BY THE IBN KHALDUN CENTER (A MEPI GRANTEE), WHICH DEPLOYED 300 OBSERVERS TO MONITOR THE REFERENDUM, STATED THAT AS OF 5:00 PM, VOTER TURNOUT DID NOT EXCEED 3 PERCENT NATIONWIDE, AND WAS LESS THAN 1 PERCENT IN THE SOUTH SINAI AND MARSA MATROUH GOVERNORATES. AL ARABIYA TV REPORTED THAT, ACCORDING TO THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (NDP),AS OF 2:00 PM, 5.5 MILLION CITIZENS (ROUGHLY 15.5 PERCENT OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS) HAD VOTED. ¶2. (SBU) ALL POLLING STATIONS WE OBSERVED HAD POSTERS HANGING OUTSIDE DETAILING THE TEXTS OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS, AS WELL AS HAND-MADE PRO-AMENDMENTS BANNERS WITH SUCH SLOGANS AS "NO TO TERRORISM, YES TO SECURITY, YES TO INVESTMENT," AND "YES TO WOMEN'S EMPOWERMENT, YES TO A BETTER FUTURE FOR EGYPT!" AT ALL POLLING STATIONS, VOTERS SEEMED TO BE CASTING THEIR BALLOTS WITH NO APPARENT HASSLES OR INTERFERENCE, ALTHOUGH THERE WAS NOTICEABLE PRESENCE OF STATE SECURITY AND NDP PERSONNEL INSIDE VIRTUALLY ALL POLLS WE VISITED. THERE DID NOT APPEAR TO BE A UNIFORM POLICY WITH REGARD TO BALLOT BOXES - AT SOME STATIONS WE VISITED, THE BALLOT BOXES WERE TRANSPARENT, WHILE AT OTHERS ONLY THE TRADITIONAL WOODEN BOXES WERE VISIBLE. ¶3. (SBU) SEVERAL EMBOFFS TALKED TO POLL WORKERS OR BYSTANDERS WHO COMMENTED THAT EGYPTIANS DID NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT TODAY'S REFERENDUM WAS ABOUT, AND DID NOT FEEL THAT THEIR VOTE WOULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE. SOME EMBASSY TEAMS OBSERVED VOTERS BEING BUSED TO POLLING STATIONS BY GOVERNMENT BUSES, OR AT THE EXPENSE OF THE FACTORIES AT WHICH THEY ARE EMPLOYED; OTHER EMBOFFS NOTED THAT AS THE DAY WORE ON, POLL WORKERS BECAME MUCH LESS RIGOROUS ABOUT DEMANDING VOTER REGISTRATION AND ID'S FROM POTENTIAL VOTERS. TWO FACTORY OWNERS IN PORT SAID ASSERTED THAT THEY HAD BEEN ASKED BY THE GOVERNMENT TO URGE THEIR WORKERS TO VOTE; ONE COMMENTED HE HAD ALSO BEEN ASKED TO PROVIDE BUSING FOR HIS EMPLOYEES TO THE POLLS, BUT EVEN SO, HE SAID, HIS EMPLOYEES REFUSED TO GO. ONE OF THE BUSIEST POLLING STATIONS WE SAW TODAY WAS AT AL AZHAR UNIVERSITY, WHERE THE SUPERVISING OFFICIAL TOLD EMBOFF THAT THE STUDENTS WERE ALL VOTING "NO." INDEPENDENT MONITORING GROUPS REPORT SPORADIC BALLOT BOX STUFFING, "COLLECTIVE" VOTING, AND BRIBING TO GET VOTERS TO CAST BALLOTS IN FAVOR OF THE AMENDMENTS. ¶4. (C) AS OF 5:00 PM, THE MOOD AT NDP HEADQUARTERS WAS TENSE. WHEN QUERIED AS TO PRESS REPORTS THAT VOTER TURN OUT WAS ROUGHLY 3 PERCENT, NDP OFFICIALS GRIMLY ASSERTED THAT SUCH ASSESSMENTS WERE NOT CORECT, BUT DID NOT OFFER THEIR OWN ESTIMATES OF VTER PARTICIPATION. THE OFFICIAL RESULTS OF THE EFERENDUM ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELEASED TOMORROW; TH FIGURES SHOULD DETAIL BOTH VOTER TURN OUT, AND TE PERCENTAGES VOTING IN FAVOR OF AND AGAINST THEAMENDMENTS. ¶5. (C) COMMENT: TODAY'S TOMB-LIKE PLLING STATIONS ARE A TESTAMENT TO A COMBINATION F FACTORS - GENERAL VOTER APATHY AMONG THE EGYPTAN POPULACE, WHICH TENDS TO BE FAR MORE CONCERNEDWITH GETTING FOOD ON THE TABLE THAN WITH LEGALISTI CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES; THE RESONANCE OF THE CAL BY THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD AND OPPOSITION PARTIS FOR A BOYCOTT (AND THE POLITICAL ASTUTENESS OFTHESE ORGANIZATIONS IN MAKING SUCH AN APPEAL, KNOING THAT THEY COULD COUNT ON THE PASSIVE NATURE F EGYPTIAN VOTERS TO HAND THEM A "VICTORY"); AND, HE NDPS GAFFES IN PREPARING FOR THE REFERENDUM,PARTICULARLY IN GIVING THE EGYPTIAN PUBLIC SUCH BRIEF PERIOD IN WHICH TO DIGEST THE COMPLICATED MENDMENTS BEFORE VOTING ON THEM. END COMMENT. RICCIARDONE