REFERENDUM: RULING PARTY OFFICIAL DETAILS GET OUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 000855 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL EG SUBJECT: REFERENDUM: RULING PARTY OFFICIAL DETAILS GET OUT THE VOTE EFFORT REF: CAIRO 816 Classified By: DCM Stuart Jones, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: In an unprecedented March 24 meeting at party headquarters in central Cairo, steel magnate and National Democratic Party (NDP) secretary for organization Ahmed Ezz hosted poloff and pol-FSN for an hour-long briefing on the NDP's "Get Out the Vote" campaign in advance of the March 26 national referendum on thirty-four new constitutional amendments. Ezz noted that his focus for the referendum is on the integrity of the voting, and voter turnout ("we need a minimum of 25 percent of registered voters to show up"). Ezz detailed the NDP's effort to mobilize the Egyptian electorate, including rallies held by NDP parliamentarians, carefully-orchestrated arrangements to transport voters to the polls on March 26, and an NDP "War Room," staffed by 350 party cadres, overseeing the entire effort. End summary. -------------- VOTER TURNOUT AND INTEGRITY KEY -------------- ¶2. (C) Ezz asserted that he defined "success" on referendum day as, "most importantly, the integrity of the referendum operation ... there must be no irregularities, and no allegations that the vote was rigged." He also focused on voter turnout, noting, "we need to get out a minimum of 25 percent of registered voters to show up at the polls. Our best-case scenario is the participation of 30 percent of Egypt's 35.6 million registered voters. My nightmare is if we only manage to turn out 20 percent of eligible voters." Stressing that, "perception is as important as reality," Ezz flagged his concern that Muslim Brotherhood (MB) operatives will stand outside of polling stations, trying to disrupt the smooth progression of voting; "this boycott call is not real ... their goal is to cause trouble." ¶3. (C) Warming to the subject of voter participation ("this is my favorite question!"),Ezz noted that there are a total of 9,900 polling stations nationwide, most in schools, each with an average of 3 ballot boxes. The average number of voters per ballot box is 1,275. "If the polls are open for 11 hours (8 AM to 7 PM),and it takes each voter an average of three minutes to cast his vote, it is practically impossible to get out more than 30 percent of the vote - we simply do not have the capacity to handle the numbers." Ezz continued that, "The NDP hopes to, in time, double the number of ballot boxes, so that we can plausibly increase voter participation to up to 50 percent." (Note: The official GOE results of the 2005 referendum on constitutional changes were reported as 53.64 percent turn out of eligible voters. End note). -------------- NDP PARTY MACHINERY KICKING INTO GEAR -------------- ¶4. (C) Ezz detailed the NDP's "Get Out the Vote" campaign, which he said had been in operation since February 20, complemented by ongoing training of party cadres over the past year and "overhauls" of the voting lists in anticipation of balloting on the constitutional changes. Following Parliament's March 19 approval of the amendments package, NDP parliamentarians were tasked with staying in their districts, and holding at least three rallies focused on the amendments. In addition, Ezz said that the NDP had distributed 9,000 CD's over the past two weeks to local party offices nationwide, with briefings and lectures by NDP officials on the constitution, and "attacking the MB." ¶5. (C) Cars equipped with loudspeakers are being readied to drive through cities in all of Egypt's governorates on March 26, urging Egyptians to head to the polls. The NDP will also provide transportation for voters to travel to polling stations. According to Ezz, on March 26, an NDP official will stand in front of each polling station, voter list in hand, checking to see which eligible voters have cast their ballots, and which have not (in which case, the volunteer will call missing voters and encourage them to come to the polls). The chief NDP operative at each polling station will be provided with 500 Egyptian LE (somewhat less than 100 USD),to fund his efforts (i.e., paying for cards, microphones). ¶6. (C) Ezz's staff escorted poloff around the bustling "War Room" at NDP headquarters, where 350 young volunteers were hunched over computers and phones, contacting NDP officials at the provincial and municipality level. Ezz noted that this "operational hub" had been running for one week, as NDP CAIRO 00000855 002 OF 002 headquarters staff reached out to their counterparts nationwide, ensuring that preparations are in order for March ¶26. Ezz handed pol-FSN a copy of one of the scripted call sheets, which included the instruction to tell the local party official that, "if you do not get a big turnout voting "yes" in your area, there will be a problem for you." Queried as to what that meant, Ezz brushed the instruction aside, and courteously asked for the paper back. ¶7. (C) On March 26, the 350 staffers in the "War Room" will "make 30 calls each hour, to check with NDP staff on the ground as to how the voting is going." According to Ezz, "we will therefore have a fairly constant picture of how voting is progressing across the country, and whether voters need to be mobilized in a particular area." Ezz noted that judges will be "moving from polling station to polling station," and that "judges will do the final vote count," which should be complete by midnight on March 26, at which point the Higher Elections Committee will compile all the figures nationwide, and then release the combined results. -------------- "YES TO MODERNIZING THE CONSTITUTION" -------------- ¶8. (C) Ezz displayed for poloff a dizzying array of banners, posters, and t-shirts emblazoned with round logos stating, "Yes to Modernizing the Constitution!" and "Yes to Modernizing Egypt!" He also flipped through several detailed internal NDP manuals with impressive graphics describing work assignments in the "War Room," and flow charts of outreach to provincial NDP offices. ¶9. (C) Absent from the discussion were details on how the NDP hoped to educate voters about the texts of the thirty-four amendments being voted on, giving the impression that the NDP's emphasis is on process, not substance. When queried as to where voters could find a text of the constitutional changes, Ezz commented that, "the debate has been going on for months now ... people know what the vote is about." One of his aides noted that on March 26, posters outside of polling stations will "have bullet points summarizing the main overall points of the amendments," that voters can read before casting their ballots. RICCIARDONE