CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS: NATIONAL REFERENDUM

UNCLAS CAIRO 000816 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS NSC FOR DORAN AND WATERS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL EG SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS: NATIONAL REFERENDUM DATE MOVED UP, OPPOSITION PLANS BOYCOTT REF: A. CAIRO 736 ¶B. CAIRO 671 SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION. ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: IN A SURPRISE MOVE, FOLLOWING PARLIAMENT'S MARCH 19 PASSAGE OF PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENTS PACKAGE, THE GOE MOVED UP THE DATE FOR THE OBLIGATORY SUBSEQUENT NATIONAL REFERENDUM TO MARCH 26, TEN DAYS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IN THE MIDST OF APPARENT DECREASING GOVERNMENT TOLERANCE FOR ANTI-AMENDMENTS DEMONSTRATIONS, THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) ON MARCH 21 ANNOUNCED THAT IT WOULD URGE EGYPTIAN VOTERS TO BOYCOTT THE REFERENDUM; TWO OPPOSITION PARTIES HAVE DONE THE SAME, AND OTHERS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW. THE RULING PARTY, MEANWHILE, IS UNDERTAKING A CONCERTED "GET-OUT-THE-VOTE" OPERATION, IN AN EFFORT TO ENSURE A RESPECTABLE TURNOUT, AS CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORS SCRAMBLE TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS TO MONITOR THE BALLOTING. END SUMMARY. -------------- PARLIAMENT APPROVES AMENDMENTS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) IN AN UNUSUAL LATE-NIGHT SESSION, ON MARCH 19 THE PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY APPROVED PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S PROPOSED 34 AMENDMENTS TO THE EGYPTIAN CONSTITUTION. THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS OF PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE WERE LARGELY BOYCOTTED BY ISLAMIST AND INDEPENDENT MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT, AND ON MARCH 18 THE BLOC OF 88 MB MP'S, TOGETHER WITH 14 OTHER OPPOSITION LEGISLATORS, DEMONSTRATED OUTSIDE OF PARLIAMENT IN FRONT OF AN OVERWHELMING GOVERNMENT SECURITY PRESENCE, WEARING BLACK SASHES STATING "NO TO OVERTURNING THE CONSTITUTION," AND CARRYING SIGNS ANNOUNCING THE "DEATH OF THE CONSTITUTION" AND THE "EXTINCTION OF FREE ELECTIONS AND PERSONAL LIBERTIES." IN THE MARCH 19 PARLIAMENTARY VOTE, HELD A DAY EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED, 315 MP'S (ALL FROM THE RULING NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY) APPROVED THE AMENDMENTS, WHILE 109 MP'S REJECTED THEM. THE VOTES AGAINST THE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES WERE FROM THE 88 MB PARLIAMENTARIANS, 10 INDEPENDENT MP'S, 5 AL WAFD MP'S, 2 NDP PARLIAMENTARIANS (TAHER HOZAYEN AND MOHAMED HUSSEIN),2 KARAMA PARTY MP'S, 1 TAGGAMU MP, AND 1 AL GHAD MP. ¶3. (SBU) IN THE LEAD-UP TO THE VOTE, DEBATE AMONG LEGISLATORS REPORTEDLY FOCUSED ON THE CONTROVERSIAL CHANGES TO CONSTITUTIONAL ARTICLE 88 (TERMINATING THE DIRECT JUDICIAL SUPERVISION OF ELECTIONS),ARTICLE 179 (PROVIDING THE GOVERNMENT THE FLEXIBILITY TO MAINTAIN POWERS IT WOULD OTHERWISE LOSE WITH THE DE-ACTIVATION OF THE EMERGENCY LAW), AND ARTICLE 84 (GIVING THE PM, INSTEAD OF THE SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT, THE AUTHORITY TO TEMPORARILY ASSUME THE POWERS OF THE PRESIDENCY IN THE EVENT OF THE PRESIDENTS INCAPACITATION). THE OPPOSITION STRENUOUSLY COMPLAINED THAT THE RULING PARTY DISREGARDED ITS INPUT ON THESE CHANGES, AS WELL AS OTHERS, AT EVERY STEP OF THE AMENDMENTS PROCESS. -------------- -------------- REFERENDUM MOVED TO MARCH 26, OPPOSITION PLANS BOYCOTT -------------- -------------- ¶4. (SBU) IN A MOVE SURPRISING EVEN TO SOME RULING PARTY INSIDERS, ON MARCH 20 THE PRESIDENT ISSUED A DECREE ANNOUNCING THE OBLIGATORY NATIONAL REFERENDUM ON THE AMENDMENTS WOULD BE HELD ON MARCH 26, TEN DAYS EARLIER THAN HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ANTICIPATED. OPPOSITIONISTS AND CIVIL SOCIETY ACTIVISTS WERE QUICK TO DECRY THE DATE CHANGE. MB PARLIAMENTARY BLOC LEADER MOHAMED SAAD AL KATATNI TOLD JOURNALISTS, "THE ONLY EXPLANATION FOR THE SPEED AT WHICH THESE AMENDMENTS ARE BEING APPROVED THE NEW DATE FOR THE REFERENDUM IS TO KEEP THE OPPOSITION FROM INFORMING THE PEOPLE HOW DANGEROUS THEY ARE." PROMINENT LIBERAL ACTIVIST BAHEY EL DIN HASSAN COMMENTED THAT, "THE GOVERNMENTS HURRY IN UNDERTAKING THE REFERENDUM REVEALS THAT IT DISPARAGES THE OPPOSITION AND PUBLIC OPINION ... AND DEMONSTRATES THE GOVERNMENT'S INSISTENCE TO PASS THESE AMENDMENTS AS FAST AS POSSIBLE TO GUARANTEE ITS RESULTS." ¶5. (SBU) ON MARCH 21, THE MB ANNOUNCED THAT THE GROUP WOULD BOYCOTT THE REFERENDUM, RATHER THAN URGE EGYPTIANS TO VOTE AGAINST THE AMENDMENTS. THE MB'S DEPUTY SUPREME GUIDE, MOHAMED HABIB, RELEASED A STATEMENT URGING EGYPTIANS TO BOYCOTT, AND "NOT TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS FARCE THAT WILL LEAD TO MORE DICTATORSHIP, REPRESSION, AND TYRANNY IN EGYPT." THE GHAD AND NASSERITE PARTIES HAD EARLIER ANNOUNCED THEIR PLANS TO BOYCOTT THE REFERENDUM, WHILE THE WAFD AND TAGGAMU PARTIES HAVE NOT YET RELEASED A FORMAL POSITION, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO ALSO CALL FOR A BOYCOTT. THE NDP, MEANWHILE, IS REPORTED TO BE UNDERTAKING A CONCERTED "GET-OUT-THE-VOTE" OPERATION, IN AN EFFORT TO ENSURE A RESPECTABLE TURNOUT ON MARCH 26. NDP SECRETARY-GENERAL SAFWAT EL SHERIF WAS QUOTED IN THE EGYPTIAN SIPDIS PRESS AS CALLING THOSE WHO WOULD BOYCOTT THE REFERENDUM "WEAK COWARDS," AND OUTLINING NDP PLANS TO HOLD "MASS CONFERENCES" IN EGYPT'S PROVINCES IN THE LEAD-UP TO THE REFERENDUM, TO INCREASE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF THE EVENT. EL SHERIF ALSO ASSERTED THAT AN OPERATIONS CENTER UNDER HIS SUPERVISION WOULD OPERATE "AROUND THE CLOCK" UNTIL THE REFERENDUM, TO MONITOR THE "RESULTS OF THE CONFERENCES." THE MB, MEANWHILE, IS ALREADY ALLEGEDING THAT THE NDP WILL RIG THE BALLOTING BY MISUSE OF PROXY VOTERS. -------------- MONITORING OF THE REFERENDUM -------------- ¶6. (SBU) CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORS ARE SCRAMBLING TO COMPLETE THEIR PREPARATIONS TO MONITOR THE REFERENDUM. THE NAQIB CENTER, FUNDED UNDER A USAID GRANT FOR VARIOUS 2007 ELECTION MONITORING INITIATIVES, PLANS TO HAVE AT LEAST 300 OBSERVERS IN THE FIELD. THE QUASI-GOVERNMENTAL NATIONAL COUNCIL FOR HUMAN RIGHTS HAS ENDORSED THE NAQIB EFFORT. THE EGYPTIAN ASSOCIATION FOR SUPPORTING DEMOCRACY, A USAID GRANTEE AND PAST-MEPI RECIPIENT, AIMS TO DEPLOY AT LEAST 350 OBSERVERS. THE IBN KHALDUN CENTER, A MEPI GRANTEE, IS HEADING ANOTHER COALITION OF SMALLER NGOS AND WILL ALSO DEPLOY OBSERVERS, THOUGH THEY ARE NOT AT THIS POINT ABLE TO PROVIDE AN ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF PERSONNEL TO BE DEPLOYED. THE EGYPTIAN ORGANIZATION FOR HUMAN RIGHTS IS EXPECTED ALSO TO DEPLOY AN UNKNOWN NUMBER OF MONITORS. THE INFLUENTIAL JUDGES' CLUB, AMIDST STRONG DENOUNCEMENTS OF THE AMENDMENTS TO ARTICLES 88 AND 179, HAS ANNOUNCED THAT IT WILL FORM A FACT-FINDING COMMISSION TO OBSERVE THE REFERENDUM. (NOTE: THE GOE HAS ARGUED THAT THE 2000 CONSTITUTIONAL COURT DECISION MANDATING FULL JUDICIAL SUPERVISION OF ELECTIONS DOES NOT APPLY TO REFERENDA. END NOTE.) ¶7. (SBU) THE TIGHT TIME CONSTRAINTS AND THE GOE'S BAN ON ACTIVITIES BY THE U.S. POLITICAL PARTY INSTITUTES, IRI AND NDI, ARE LIKELY TO WORK AGAINST SUCCESSFUL DOMESTIC MONITORING OF THE REFERENDUM. IN 2005, FOR EXAMPLE, NDI PLAYED A KEY SUPPORT ROLE IN ADVISING EGYPTIAN NGOS ABOUT MONITORING "BEST PRACTICES" AND PROVIDED ASSISTANCE WITH TRAINING, MEDIA OUTREACH AND OTHER ESSENTIAL SKILLS; A ROLE THEY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO UNDERTAKE THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS, WE BELIEVE THAT EGYPTIAN CIVIL SOCIETY, EVEN WORKING UNDER THESE ADVERSE CONDITIONS, IS POISED TO PROVIDE A REASONABLY THOROUGH ASSESSMENT OF THE CREDIBILITY OF THE MARCH 26 REFERENDUM. -------------- GOE TAKING TOUGH STANCE ON DEMONSTRATIONS -------------- ¶8. (SBU) MEANWHILE, GOVERNMENTAL TOLERANCE FOR DEMONSTRATIONS APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AS TENSIONS RISE. ON MARCH 15, HUNDREDS OF RIOT POLICE WERE DEPLOYED IN AND AROUND CENTRAL CAIRO'S LIBERATION SQUARE TO CONTAIN A SMALL DEMONSTRATION AGAINST THE AMENDMENTS BY SEVERAL DOZEN KEFAYA PROTESTERS. GOE SECURITY OFFICIALS DETAINED AT LEAST 21 ACTIVISTS, EVENTUALLY RELEASING THEM ON MARCH 17. ON MARCH 19, 20, AND 21, THE POLICE DEPLOYED IN FORCE AROUND PARLIAMENT IN AN APPARENT EFFORT TO THWART PROTESTS IN SOLIDARITY WITH OPPOSITION MPS. THE GOVERNMENT-BACKED AL-AHRAM NEWSPAPER REPORTED ON MARCH 21 THAT AN UNNAMED SECURITY OFFICIAL HAS "WARNED AGAINST THE ATTEMPTS OF ILLEGITIMATE FORCES TO INFLUENCE THE PROCESS OF THE REFERENDUM, VIOLATE SECURITY, AND IMPEDE MOBILITY IN THE STREETS ON THE DAY OF THE REFERENDUM ... THE FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION IS A RIGHT GUARANTEED BY LAW, BUT DEMONSTRATIONS THAT AIM TO CAUSE MAYHEM TO PUBLIC LIFE WILL NOT BE ALLOWED." RICCIARDONE