EGYPT CONSIDERING UTILITY OF IGAD SUMMIT ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 000469 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/20/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON EAID EG SU SUBJECT: EGYPT CONSIDERING UTILITY OF IGAD SUMMIT ON SUDAN'S COMPREHENSIVE PEACE AGREEMENT IMPLEMENTATION REF: STATE 18712 (NOTAL) CLASSIFIED BY MINISTER COUNSELOR FOR ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL AFFAIRS, WILLIAM R. STEWART, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) EGYPT IS AWARE OF PLANS BY KENYA, AS CHAIR OF THE INTER-GOVERNMENTAL AUTHORITY FOR DEVELOPMENT (IGAD),TO HOST A SUMMIT IN COMING WEEKS TO FOCUS ATTENTION ON IMPLEMENTATION OF SUDAN'S COMPREHENSIVE PEACE AGREEMENT (CPA). THE GOE IS CONSIDERING A FORMAL RESPONSE TO THE SUMMIT PROPOSAL, BUT HAS DOUBTS REGARDING SUDANESE WILLINGNESS TO COOPERATE. IN LINE WITH EGYPTS APPARENT PREFERENCE FOR LOW-KEY, DIRECT DIPLOMACY WITH THE SUDANESE, THE MFA OFFICIAL MENTIONED A RECENT UNSUCCESSFUL EGYPTIAN-LIBYAN EFFORT TO BROKER AN AGREEMENT ON ABYEI BORDER DELINEATION. THE ARAB LEAGUE IS ALSO WATCHING THE CPA CLOSELY, CONCERNED ABOUT ITS SLUGGISH IMPLEMENTATION, AND PREPARED TO ASSIST WITH INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS TO PROPEL MOMENTUM. STILL, LEAGUE PARTICIPATION HAS APPARENTLY NOT BEEN SOUGHT BY KENYA OR THE IGAD. END SUMMARY. -------------- GOE AWARE OF IGAD SUMMIT PLANS -------------- ¶2. (C) DURING A FEBRUARY 20 MEETING WITH POLOFF, MFA ASSISTANT MINISTER FOR AFRICAN AFFAIRS MARSOUM MARZOUK DISCUSSED REFTEL PROPOSAL BY IGAD CHAIR KENYA TO HOST A SUMMIT FOCUSED ON CPA IMPLEMENTATION. MARZOUK CONFIRMED THAT THE GOE IS AWARE OF KENYA'S EFFORTS AND NOTED EGYPTS SUPPORT FOR IGADS ACHIEVEMENT WITH THE JANUARY 2005 CPA SIGNING, AND FOR ITS CONTINUED EFFORTS TO ENSURE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NORTH-SOUTH PEACE DEAL. -------------- GOE EQUALLY CONCERNED ABOUT CPA -------------- ¶3. (C) MARZOUK DID NOT DISPUTE REFTEL EXAMPLES OF SHORTCOMINGS IN CPA IMPLEMENTATION AND NOTED GOE CONCERN THAT "THINGS COULD QUICKLY GET OUT OF HAND." HE SAID EGYPT CONSISTENTLY PRESSED THE ISSUE WITH SUDANESE LEADERS, AS LATE AS THE RECENT AU SUMMIT IN ADDIS ABABA. AFTER RECENT MILITIA CLASHES IN MALAKAL, EGYPT INSISTED TO BOTH THE GOVERNMENT OF SUDAN (GOS) AND TO THE GOVERNMENT OF SOUTH SUDAN (GOSS) THAT THE TWO "ACTIVATE ALL MECHANISMS" (I.E., DISARMAMENT, DEMOBILIZATION, AND REINTEGRATION PROCESS) TO RESOLVE LINGERING PROBLEMS. HOWEVER, THE GOS ("EVEN LAM AKOL") STRENOUSLY DENIED RESPONSIBILITY. MARZOUK SAID, "WE HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE SOME LOW-RANKING PEOPLE IN GOS INTELLIGENCE AND ARMY WERE INVOLVED." SIMILARLY, HE SAID, CAIRO WARNED KHARTOUM OF CONCERNS OVER REPORTS THAT GOS TROOPS WERE MASSING IN KORDOFAN. THE GOS RESPONSE, HE SAID, WAS DISMISSIVE: "REBELS FROM DARFUR ARE MOVING INTO KORDOFAN TO SPREAD HAVOC, SO WE MUST ADDRESS THE THREAT." LAMENTING WHAT APPEARED TO BE ERODING GOE INFLUENCE OVER KHARTOUM, MARZOUK POINTED TO THE LATEST REJECTION OF BASHIR AS AU PRESIDENT, NOTING THAT GOS LEADERS BLAMED THE REJECTION ON CAIRO, AND WERE BECOMING LESS RESPONSIVE TO GOE ADVICE AND EXHORTATIONS TOWARD MODERATION. -------------- EGYPT-LIBYA ABYEI PROPOSAL; TRIPOLI MEETING -------------- ¶4. (C) CITING ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF AN UNSUCCESSFUL GOE EFFORT TO PRESS KHARTOUM ON CPA IMPLEMENTATION, MARZOUK NOTED A RECENT EGYPTIAN-LIBYAN EFFORT TO HELP KHARTOUM AND THE GOSS REACH A "SPECIAL AGREEMENT" ON ABYEI BORDER DELINEATION, "SIMILAR TO THE NUBA MOUNTAIN AGREEMENT." BOTH SIDES, HOWEVER, WERE STUBBORN, AND REFUSED TO COMPROMISE, HE SAID. THE EFFORT WAS UNDERTAKEN BY EGYPT'S CONSUL IN JUBA, AND WAS NOT COORDINATED WITH OTHER STATES OR ORGANIZATIONS, HE CONFIRMED. THE LIBYANS, HE COMPLAINED, "ARE PART OF THE PROBLEM; EITHER THEY ARE CONFUSED, OR HAVE ULTERIOR MOTIVES - WE DON'T KNOW WHICH." ¶5. (C) MARZOUK NOTED THAT A MEETING WAS SCHEDULED TO TAKE PLACE IN TRIPOLI, LIBYA ON FEBRUARY 20 WHICH PRESIDENT BASHIR, ERITREAN PRESIDENT AFWORKI, KEY DARFUR REBEL LEADERS, AND OTHERS MAY ATTEND. THE MEETING, HE SAID, WAS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE IMMEDIATE BREAK THROUGHS ON DARFUR OR OTHER SUDAN ISSUES, BUT WOULD PREPARE A FOLLOW-ON MEETING, POSSIBLY IN ASMARA, BETWEEN SUDANESE AND REGIONAL PLAYERS. -------------- SUMMIT MAY NOT PRODUCE DESIRED OUTCOMES -------------- ¶6. (C) MARZOUK SAID BASHIR WAS INCREASINGLY SURROUNDED BY HARDLINERS IN KHARTOUM, WHO ARGUED THAT THE GOS MADE TOO MANY CONCESSIONS ON THE CPA AND ON DARFUR AND HAD GOTTEN LITTLE IN RETURN. SOME OF THEM, HE ADDED, ARE STIRRING UP TROUBLE AND LOOKING FOR "CHIPS" TO USE IN FUTURE POLITICAL TALKS. WE ARGUE TO THEM THAT THIS APPROACH IS MISTAKEN, HE SAID, BUT THEY DON'T LISTEN. GOS AND GOSS LEADERS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY INFLEXIBLE, HE STATED, AND MAY BE UNWILLING TO PARTICIPATE IN SUCH A HIGH-PROFILE SUMMIT AS THAT PROPOSED BY KENYA. A SUMMIT OF THIS NATURE, HE SAID, MAY BE "TOO BIG" AND UNWIELDY FOR THE SUDANESE TO AGREE TO MOVE FORWARD ON CPA IMPLEMENTATION. IT IS BETTER, MARZOUK ADDED, IF KEY PARTIES QUIETLY AND DIRECTLY WORKED WITH THE SUDANESE AWAY FROM THE SPOTLIGHT ON THESE ISSUES. -------------- ARAB LEAGUE WILLING, BUT NOT INVITED -------------- ¶7. (C) POLOFF ALSO DISCUSSED THE KENYA SUMMIT DURING A FEBRUARY 20 MEETING WITH ARAB LEAGUE (AL) SECRETARIAT CHIEF OF STAFF HISHAM YOUSSEF. YOUSSEF SAID THE AL IS WORRIED BY THE SLOW PACE OF CPA IMPLEMENTATION, AND INDICATED AL READINESS TO ASSIST AS WARRANTED. HE POINTED OUT, THOUGH, THAT THE LEAGUE HAD NOT BEEN INVITED BY KENYA TO PARTICIPATE IN THE MEETING. YOUSSEF EXPLAINED THAT THE LEAGUE WOULD HOST A MARCH CONFERENCE IN CAIRO FOCUSED ON DARFUR RECONSTRUCTION AND WAS ACTIVELY FOLLOWING POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SUDAN. THE LEAGUE WANTS TO BE INVOLVED IN THE KENYAN/IGAD EFFORTS, HE SAID, BUT MOUSSA HIMSELF WILL LIKELY BE TIED UP WITH PREPARATIONS FOR THE LATE-MARCH ARAB LEAGUE SUMMIT IN RIYADH. NONETHELESS, HE CONCLUDED, IF WE ARE INVITED, WE'LL PARTICIPATE. RICCIARDONE