EGYPTIAN PUBLIC SENTIMENT TOWARD PALESTINIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003498

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

NEA FOR FO; NSC FOR PASCUAL

C O R R E C T E D C O P Y -RECLASSIFICATION OF PARA 6

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IS EG
SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN PUBLIC SENTIMENT TOWARD PALESTINIANS
WANING?

Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION STUART JONES
REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C). Summary. Although the Palestinian cause remains a
primary political issue in Egypt, there are indications that
attention to it is decreasing among younger Egyptians. The
constant violence following the outbreak of the intifada in
2001 and recent intra-Palestinian fighting are factors.
Increased focus on domestic political and economic issues may
also be having an impact. However, the older generation -
including the foreign policy establishment - still maintains
that the Palestinian issue is "number one" for Egyptians.
Egyptians and the GOE uniformly want to see "justice" for the
Palestinians, and feel compassion for the suffering,
especially in Gaza. However, there may be an emerging
generation gap on how the Palestinian issue relates to daily
Egyptian life. End summary.


2. (C) While Egyptians of all ages say they are
"pro-Palestinian," intensity of sentiment appears to be
waning among young Egyptians. Egyptian students invariably
raise the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the suffering of
the Palestinians in Gaza, with the Ambassador and other
embassy officers during our meetings. However, protests of
Israeli visitors to Egypt have virtually ceased in recent
years. Emad Gad, Director of Israeli Affairs at the Al Ahram
Center, told us that demonstrations on university campuses
have declined. A November demonstration at Cairo University
had approximately 500 students. In contrast, demonstrations
of nearly 10,000 students, such as at Alexandria University
in April 2002, were commonplace. The fall visit of the
Israeli minister of trade to sign a new QIZ agreement was not
met with any significant opposition. There are other
indicators: a review of Facebook indicated that of the
approximately 5000 groups on the Egyptian network, there were
no groups affiliated or related to the Palestinian cause,
while worldwide there are over 5000 such groups. (Note: Of
the most popular groups on the Egypt network, most were
either Islamic or Coptic in nature. End note).


3. (C) It may be that the decrease in public demonstrations
in support of the Palestinians is due in part to stricter
enforcement of GOE rules on student gatherings. But strikes
and demonstrations in connection with domestic labor or
economic issues remain commonplace. More broadly, local
issues are increasingly in focus in comparison to the
Palestinian cause. Despite economic growth rates in the 6-7%
range, a June 2007 World Bank poverty assessment estimated a
poverty rate of 17.5% in 2006, with 3.4% living on less than
$1/day. An average inflation rate of 10% over the past year
disproportionately affects the poor, who spend more of their
income on food. The official unemployment rate of around 9%
is widely believed to be underestimated. Egyptian blogger
Nasser Amin expressed a view, which he claims is increasingly
held by younger Egyptians, that the government,s traditional
encouragement of supporting the Palestinian cause serves as a
distraction from domestic shortcomings. "It will take a long
time for us to love Israel, but our leadership holds the keys
to this," he said.


5. (C) Palestinian in-fighting has contributed to growing
disinterest among young Egyptians. The Hamas takeover of Gaza
was significant in this regard. A young female blogger told
us that Egyptians are increasingly looking at the Palestinian
issue in practical, rather than emotional, terms. She said
that younger Egyptians are increasingly focusing on domestic
issues, especially "political stagnation." She commented
that this year,s Ramadan television series aired by Egyptian
networks and LBC did not focus on Israeli occupation of
Palestinian lands (as they have in the past). In contrast,
just three years ago, there was serious attention given to
the Egyptian film "Al Ghadab" (The Anger),which depicted a
Palestinian "freedom fighter" who escaped from a refugee camp
to fight the "Zionist enemy".


6. (C) Nevertheless, the old guard continues to maintain that
the Palestinian cause is number one, both in terms of
domestic politics and Egyptian foreign policy. FM Aboul
Gheit, Arab League Secretary General Moussa, and others in
the foreign policy establishment continue to passionately
frame the future of the Arab world through the singular lens
of the Palestinian issue. Mohammad Bassiouny, former
Ambassador to Israel and Head of the Shoura Council for
National Security Affairs, strongly denied to us any drop in
Egyptian passion toward the Palestinian cause. He noted that
he had delivered a speech to the Council on November 8 in
which he explicitly said that the Palestinian cause remains
the most important Egyptian foreign policy objective. A
younger MFA cabinet advisor acknowledged to us that the

Palestinian issue has lost some steam among the younger
generation as a political matter, but said that resolution of
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the key to broader
progress in the region, and said that it remains a top
concern in the region as a humanitarian and religious matter.


7. (C) Comment: The longstanding theory that resolution of
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a condition precedent to
regional peace is still overwhelmingly supported here. It
does not appear Egyptians have changed in this regard. The
"cooling down" of emotions on the Palestinian issue along
generational lines, coupled with an increased focus on
domestic issues, should lend all the more Egyptian popular
support for an eventual compromise two-state solution.
Ricciardone