EGYPTIAN PUBLIC SENTIMENT TOWARD PALESTINIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003498 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA FOR FO; NSC FOR PASCUAL C O R R E C T E D C O P Y -RECLASSIFICATION OF PARA 6 E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IS EG SUBJECT: EGYPTIAN PUBLIC SENTIMENT TOWARD PALESTINIANS WANING? Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION STUART JONES REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C). Summary. Although the Palestinian cause remains a primary political issue in Egypt, there are indications that attention to it is decreasing among younger Egyptians. The constant violence following the outbreak of the intifada in 2001 and recent intra-Palestinian fighting are factors. Increased focus on domestic political and economic issues may also be having an impact. However, the older generation - including the foreign policy establishment - still maintains that the Palestinian issue is "number one" for Egyptians. Egyptians and the GOE uniformly want to see "justice" for the Palestinians, and feel compassion for the suffering, especially in Gaza. However, there may be an emerging generation gap on how the Palestinian issue relates to daily Egyptian life. End summary. ¶2. (C) While Egyptians of all ages say they are "pro-Palestinian," intensity of sentiment appears to be waning among young Egyptians. Egyptian students invariably raise the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the suffering of the Palestinians in Gaza, with the Ambassador and other embassy officers during our meetings. However, protests of Israeli visitors to Egypt have virtually ceased in recent years. Emad Gad, Director of Israeli Affairs at the Al Ahram Center, told us that demonstrations on university campuses have declined. A November demonstration at Cairo University had approximately 500 students. In contrast, demonstrations of nearly 10,000 students, such as at Alexandria University in April 2002, were commonplace. The fall visit of the Israeli minister of trade to sign a new QIZ agreement was not met with any significant opposition. There are other indicators: a review of Facebook indicated that of the approximately 5000 groups on the Egyptian network, there were no groups affiliated or related to the Palestinian cause, while worldwide there are over 5000 such groups. (Note: Of the most popular groups on the Egypt network, most were either Islamic or Coptic in nature. End note). ¶3. (C) It may be that the decrease in public demonstrations in support of the Palestinians is due in part to stricter enforcement of GOE rules on student gatherings. But strikes and demonstrations in connection with domestic labor or economic issues remain commonplace. More broadly, local issues are increasingly in focus in comparison to the Palestinian cause. Despite economic growth rates in the 6-7% range, a June 2007 World Bank poverty assessment estimated a poverty rate of 17.5% in 2006, with 3.4% living on less than $1/day. An average inflation rate of 10% over the past year disproportionately affects the poor, who spend more of their income on food. The official unemployment rate of around 9% is widely believed to be underestimated. Egyptian blogger Nasser Amin expressed a view, which he claims is increasingly held by younger Egyptians, that the government,s traditional encouragement of supporting the Palestinian cause serves as a distraction from domestic shortcomings. "It will take a long time for us to love Israel, but our leadership holds the keys to this," he said. ¶5. (C) Palestinian in-fighting has contributed to growing disinterest among young Egyptians. The Hamas takeover of Gaza was significant in this regard. A young female blogger told us that Egyptians are increasingly looking at the Palestinian issue in practical, rather than emotional, terms. She said that younger Egyptians are increasingly focusing on domestic issues, especially "political stagnation." She commented that this year,s Ramadan television series aired by Egyptian networks and LBC did not focus on Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands (as they have in the past). In contrast, just three years ago, there was serious attention given to the Egyptian film "Al Ghadab" (The Anger),which depicted a Palestinian "freedom fighter" who escaped from a refugee camp to fight the "Zionist enemy". ¶6. (C) Nevertheless, the old guard continues to maintain that the Palestinian cause is number one, both in terms of domestic politics and Egyptian foreign policy. FM Aboul Gheit, Arab League Secretary General Moussa, and others in the foreign policy establishment continue to passionately frame the future of the Arab world through the singular lens of the Palestinian issue. Mohammad Bassiouny, former Ambassador to Israel and Head of the Shoura Council for National Security Affairs, strongly denied to us any drop in Egyptian passion toward the Palestinian cause. He noted that he had delivered a speech to the Council on November 8 in which he explicitly said that the Palestinian cause remains the most important Egyptian foreign policy objective. A younger MFA cabinet advisor acknowledged to us that the Palestinian issue has lost some steam among the younger generation as a political matter, but said that resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is the key to broader progress in the region, and said that it remains a top concern in the region as a humanitarian and religious matter. ¶7. (C) Comment: The longstanding theory that resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is a condition precedent to regional peace is still overwhelmingly supported here. It does not appear Egyptians have changed in this regard. The "cooling down" of emotions on the Palestinian issue along generational lines, coupled with an increased focus on domestic issues, should lend all the more Egyptian popular support for an eventual compromise two-state solution. Ricciardone