ARAB LEAGUE SYG MOUSSA ON ANNAPOLIS FOLLOW-UP,

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003391 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/01/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER IZ LE SY IS EG SUBJECT: ARAB LEAGUE SYG MOUSSA ON ANNAPOLIS FOLLOW-UP, IRAQ, ISRAEL-PALESTINE, LEBANON REF: CAIRO 3198 Classified By: Ambassador Francis J. Ricciardone. Reasons: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Freshly returned from Annapolis, Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa spoke with us December 1. The SIPDIS conversation focused on next steps in the Israeli-Arab engagement, Iraq, Lebanon, and Iran. He conceded that fear is the real reason the Arab League has not returned a high level envoy to Baghdad and claimed he is looking for "someone of substance" to post to Baghdad "when security permits." Moussa pressed hard for the USG to hold Israel to a freeze on settlement expansion. He said the Arab League follow-up committee may meet on the margins of the December 17 donors conference in Paris. Moussa believed an agreement on a Lebanese presidential successor was in sight but that Syrian influence is a reality that must be accepted. End summary. ¶2. (C) Post-Annapolis: Moussa met late December 1 with Ambassador Ricciardone, visiting regional COMS Jones, Speckhard, JCS Global Terrorism Coordinator BG Johnson, and DCM Beirut Grant. Moussa said he was satisfied with Annapolis, but reiterated his skepticism about Israeli intentions. Israeli Foreign Minister Livni had been antagonistic to Arab participants at Annapolis, Mossa said. He contrasted Livni with Olmert, whom he saw as more reasonable and practical. Moussa said that the fundamental issue is not terrorism, it is occupation, and everything that follows - including terrorism that we deplore - is a result. He argued that settlement expansion, under any terminology, is an affront to those who are genuinely interested in moving forward, including the U.S. Administration. Moussa said that the Golan should be on the agenda for the next meeting (possibly in Moscow),and that we should continue to bring Syria into the discussion by delineating both "rights and obligations" for increased participation. ¶3. (C) Despite skepticism on Israel, Moussa recognized that President Bush and the Secretary were working hard and committed to making progress. He said that so long as a process and a timeline are in place, and the Israelis can be held to a settlement freeze, Arabs are ready to move accordingly with normalization. "We are ready for normalization and recognition," he said. Ambassador Jones asked what the Arab League's next steps were. Moussa said there may be a meeting of all or some members of the Arab League follow up committee on the margins of the planned December 17 donors meeting in Paris. The next two or three months will be vital, he said. "We (the Arabs) will see if things are advancing seriously, or if we are being taken for a ride again." He said the U.S. immediate withdrawal of its own draft UNSCR was a "bad sign." ¶4. (C) Lebanon: It seemed clear to Moussa that the sides had agreed on Michael Sleiman as President. "The details are full of devils, but it seems the biggest hurdle has been crossed." It was unclear to him if President Lahoud and Prime Minister Siniora would both have to resign. Moussa understood that a committee would be formed to prepare for a formal session of parliament on December 7. He opined that Syria was playing a "sophisticated game" with the U.S., Europe, Arab states, and Iran. Moussa said he talks frankly with the Syrian regime about the need to find a solution in Lebanon, but that we have to "accept the reality" of Syrian influence in Lebanon. He had no plans to visit Lebanon now; "now is the time for Lebanese to be talking to themselves not outsiders." ¶5. (C) Iraq: Moussa reiterated his position that "we are all in the same boat" on Iraq (reftel). All agreed that the security situation may be improving, but political progress, and ultimately reconciliation, must be the goal. Moussa said he supports a unified, democratic Iraq that is not balkanized along religious or ethnic lines. He argued that the USG request for Arab states to exchange ambassadors with Baghdad rang hollow in the absence of a "strategic dialogue" on Iraq. He asserted that the USG is in direct consultation with Iran on the future of Iraq, but not with Arab allies. Speaking from their own personal experience in Iraq, each of the three U.S. Ambassadors pressured Moussa that a) we have consulted repeatedly with our regional allies on Iraq, including Arabs, at the ministerial levels; and b) exchanging ambassadors would allow us to consult directly and continuously with Arab states in Baghdad, as well as provide political support for the Iraqi government in the face of Iranian pressure and presence. Moussa still claimed that the U.S. views Arab prospective ambassadors in Iraq as merely "token measures" and said that "suspicions remain" about Prime Minister Malaki. Ambassador Speckhard said that it is important that Iraqis believe that the future of their country is being decided internally, not by outside forces, and that having Arab envoys in Baghdad would help reassure Iraq of Arab support. In the end, Moussa conceded that he had not been able to identify a senior Arab League envoy because "everyone is too scared." He was actively looking for "someone of substance" to represent the Arab League in Baghdad, and would send one "when security permits." ¶6. (U) Participation United States -------------- Ambassador Ricciardone Ambassador to Israel Richard Jones Ambassador to Greece Daniel V. Speckhard Charge d'Affaires to Syria Michael Corbin Brigadier General Michelle Johnson, Deputy Director, JCS War on Terrorism Deputy Chief of Mission to Beirut William Grant Political Officer Greg LoGerfo (notetaker) Arab League -------------- Secretary General Moussa SIPDIS Chief of Staff Hesham Yousef Deputy Chief of Staff Talal Amin Spokesman Alaa Roushdy RICCIARDONE