FOREIGN MINISTER ABOUL GHEIT DISCUSSES IRAQ,

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003329 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2012 TAGS: PREL PTER KPAL MOPS EG IS IZ IR SUBJECT: FOREIGN MINISTER ABOUL GHEIT DISCUSSES IRAQ, ANNAPOLIS WITH ADM FALLON Classified By: DCM Stuart E. Jones for reasons 1.4 (a),(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) U.S. Central Command Commander, Admiral William J. Fallon discussed Iraqi security and the upcoming Annapolis conference with Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit on November 18. Aboul Gheit asked whether it would be possible to widen the participation in PM Maliki's government and expressed concern that the withdrawal of U.S. troops may cause the security situation in Iraq to deteriorate. Aboul Gheit said Egypt wants to persuade other Arab nations, particularly the Saudis, of the importance of supporting Annapolis and warned that Israel should "stop shouting" about smuggling, noting that he has a "green light" from President Mubarak to respond. End summary. Iraq -------------- ¶2. (C) During a meeting on November 18, Admiral Fallon, accompanied by the Ambassador, updated Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit on the positive impact of the troop surge in Iraq and plans to begin a gradual troop withdrawal as Iraqi forces assume responsibility for security. Aboul Gheit expressed concern that the troop withdrawal would cause security to deteriorate as new militias emerge. "What is the difference between having 130,000 troops or 160,000 troops?" he asked, suggesting that a withdrawal may be premature. ADM Fallon explained that the security improvements since August and the number and increased preparedness of the Iraqi Security Forces were positive signs. Aboul Gheit questioned the allegiance of Iraqi forces and asked whether discussions on the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq should wait until after the next election "so no one will argue that it was agreed upon under duress." The smooth transition of security responsibility to Iraqi forces requires significant logistical planning which cannot be delayed, Admiral Fallon said. ¶3. (C) Aboul Gheit said that people in Iraq and in the broader region are uncomfortable with PM Maliki's narrow reach, and asked if it would be possible to "widen or change participation" in the government. "If Maliki's government is not shaken, he will not open up," Aboul Gheit warned. Aboul Gheit also raised concern about Iran's influence in Iraq, noting that if Iran is subject to an air attack, he fears they will respond--in the Gulf, in Lebanon, and elsewhere. The Iranians are laying the infrastructure now to maximize the impact of an attack on U.S. bases, Aboul Gheit said. Annapolis Meeting; Border Security -------------- ¶4. (C) Egypt wants to be able to convince the Egyptian people and the Arabs, particularly the Saudis, of the importance of supporting the Annapolis meeting, Aboul Gheit said. He said he had instructed his spokesman to prepare a statement beginning with an expression of "deep skepticism," but noting that the Egyptians will attend the meeting nonetheless. There had been few signs of Israeli concessions and no progress on re-opening offices that had been closed or on check points, according to Aboul Gheit. Because the Israelis are "jockeying for position" that will determine their futures, they will not be able to make "bold" decisions, Aboul Gheit predicted. He added that he is "totally convinced" that frustration over the failure to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict prompted the 9/11 attack and said he would not believe that Washington will listen to "the Jewish right or the American right", but "only to what must be done for justice" as "people of principle." "When I see Arabs and Israelis with beards, I am afraid of the clash," Aboul Gheit said, acknowledging that there will not be a "perfect solution." ¶5. (C) Aboul Gheit told Admiral Fallon that Egypt wants Israel to "stop shouting" in the media about the smuggling. Noting that Egypt does not want to "spoil the Egyptian-Israeli relationship," Aboul Gheit said that "if they shout, we will shout; I have the green light from the President." ¶6. (U) Admiral Fallon reviewed this message. RICCIARDONE