GOE AND ARAB LEAGUE READOUTS OF LEBANON SIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003218

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV LE EG
SUBJECT: GOE AND ARAB LEAGUE READOUTS OF LEBANON SIDE
MEETING


Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION STUART JONES.
REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Nazih el Neggary, MFA Cabinet advisor on
Syria-Lebanon, gave a readout to poloff of the Lebanon side
meeting in Istanbul, as well as an assessment of the Lebanese
political state of play, on November 5. Neggary said the GOE
was pleased with the meeting and the strong statement against
interference in Lebanon, but he worried that leverage against
Syria was lacking, and that there is no indication the
Lebanese factions will agree on a short list of candidates.


2. (C) Neggary said that FM Aboul Gheit had asked the
participants in the side meeting what the options are if
Syria continues to cause problems. Leverage appears to be
limited among the meeting participants (U.S., France, EU,
Arab League, SAUDI Arabia, Jordan and Egypt). Economic
sanctions were reportedly considered, but particpants
wondered if the impact would matter.


3. (C) At the same time, Neggary said that Egypt's effort to
reach out to Syria in a constructive, practical way on
Lebanon is not yielding results, and the MFA feels "a little
embarrassed" now. He said that the Syrians continue use the
"we are Arab brothers" line with the Egyptians and dismiss
the GOE position against interference in Lebanon as
"pro-American." (Neggary noted that a tentatively scheduled
Moallam-Aboul Gheit meeting in Istanbul had fallen thru due
to scheduling problems). He believed the Syrian strategy is
to improve performance on the border with Iraq, come to an
understanding with the USG on Annapolis, but hold firm on
Lebanon. On the positive side, Neggary said that, based on
conversations and meetings in Istanbul, the Syrians appear to
have received the message on assassinations.


4. (C) Talal Amin, Arab League Deputy Chief of Staff to
Secretary General Amre Moussa, told poloff November 5 he

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thought the side meeting went well, but worried that the
impasse in Lebanon would continue. Hisham Yousef, Chief of
Staff to Moussa, will travel to Lebanon soon to assess the
utility of a possible Amre Moussa visit to Beirut in
mid-November.


5. (C) Comment: While Egyptian MFA interlocutors have
consistently articulated GOE concerns about outside influence
in Lebanon, including that of Syria, they rank this concern
below other regional considerations (e.g. the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq, and Sudan). They are
also supremely sensitive about appearing "in the pocket" of
the U.S. in an intra-Arab dispute.
RICCIARDONE