GOE AND ARAB LEAGUE READOUTS OF LEBANON SIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003218 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV LE EG SUBJECT: GOE AND ARAB LEAGUE READOUTS OF LEBANON SIDE MEETING Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION STUART JONES. REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Nazih el Neggary, MFA Cabinet advisor on Syria-Lebanon, gave a readout to poloff of the Lebanon side meeting in Istanbul, as well as an assessment of the Lebanese political state of play, on November 5. Neggary said the GOE was pleased with the meeting and the strong statement against interference in Lebanon, but he worried that leverage against Syria was lacking, and that there is no indication the Lebanese factions will agree on a short list of candidates. ¶2. (C) Neggary said that FM Aboul Gheit had asked the participants in the side meeting what the options are if Syria continues to cause problems. Leverage appears to be limited among the meeting participants (U.S., France, EU, Arab League, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt). Economic sanctions were reportedly considered, but particpants wondered if the impact would matter. ¶3. (C) At the same time, Neggary said that Egypt's effort to reach out to Syria in a constructive, practical way on Lebanon is not yielding results, and the MFA feels "a little embarrassed" now. He said that the Syrians continue use the "we are Arab brothers" line with the Egyptians and dismiss the GOE position against interference in Lebanon as "pro-American." (Neggary noted that a tentatively scheduled Moallam-Aboul Gheit meeting in Istanbul had fallen thru due to scheduling problems). He believed the Syrian strategy is to improve performance on the border with Iraq, come to an understanding with the USG on Annapolis, but hold firm on Lebanon. On the positive side, Neggary said that, based on conversations and meetings in Istanbul, the Syrians appear to have received the message on assassinations. ¶4. (C) Talal Amin, Arab League Deputy Chief of Staff to Secretary General Amre Moussa, told poloff November 5 he SIPDIS thought the side meeting went well, but worried that the impasse in Lebanon would continue. Hisham Yousef, Chief of Staff to Moussa, will travel to Lebanon soon to assess the utility of a possible Amre Moussa visit to Beirut in mid-November. ¶5. (C) Comment: While Egyptian MFA interlocutors have consistently articulated GOE concerns about outside influence in Lebanon, including that of Syria, they rank this concern below other regional considerations (e.g. the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iraq, and Sudan). They are also supremely sensitive about appearing "in the pocket" of the U.S. in an intra-Arab dispute. RICCIARDONE