EGYPT AND ARAB LEAGUE ON LEBANON BORDER MISSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003115 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA/ELA FOR IRWIN AND SOMERSET; NSC FOR WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL EG LE SUBJECT: EGYPT AND ARAB LEAGUE ON LEBANON BORDER MISSION AND ELECTION REF: A. SECSTATE 146813 ¶B. CAIRO 3003 Classified By: ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL MINISTER COUNSELOR WILLIAM R. STE WART. REASONS: 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Poloff delivered points (reftel A) October 23 to Hisham Yousef, Chief of Staff to Arab League Secretary General Amre Moussa, and conveyed strong USG support for Lebanese PM Siniora's proposed Arab-EU monitoring mission. Yousef agreed that Lebanese sovereignty is critical, and said that Siniora had raised the Lebanon-Syria border issue with Moussa on numerous occasions. However, the Arab League focus in Lebanon right now is on helping to ensure a successful presidential election, and Yousef thinks that Lebanese political leaders (aside from Siniora) are unlikely to focus on the border right at the moment. He argued that it is better to wait until after the election, notwithstanding our point that Siniora wants to lay the groundwork immediately. He said that the latest EU plan (i.e. the "Spanish proposal" in reftel A) did not come up in a phone call between the Secretary General and Spanish FM Moratinos following the SIPDIS latter's recent Beirut visit. ¶2. (C) Yousef opined that discussions on a "short list" of Lebanese presidential candidates is going forward, albeit slowly. The Arab League is planning to send a high-level delegation (led by former Sudanese Foreign Minister Mustafa Osman Ismail) to Lebanon in early November, to provide political support for the dialogue, but not to interfere. If necessary, Secretary General Moussa would lead an Arab League delegation to Lebanon in mid-November (to include foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and either Tunis or Morocco) if it is apparent progress is not satisfactory and that a push might be helpful. ¶3. (C) Egyptian MFA Cabinet Advisor Nazih el Neggary expressed skepticism to poloff October 22 regarding the potential effectiveness of any Lebanon-Syria border monitoring mission. Neggary said that Egypt fully supports the goal of strengthening Lebanese security, including at its border with Syria -- the question is how to do it. In response to points (reftel A),he said that Syria could not be trusted to use equipment, or implement any program, if the goal was to reduce arms smuggling into Lebanon. He acknowledged that Siniora had raised the issue in his most recent meeting with Egyptian Prime Minister Nazif. ¶4. (C) Neggary offered his own view that it would be unwise for Egypt to deploy personnel for a joint Arab-EU monitoring mission (as proposed by Siniora),because Egypt is simply "too close," but that suitable contributors might be other North African countries, or perhaps non-Arab Muslim countries. He reiterated his view (reftel B) that the best way to support Lebanon is by supporting the Lebanese security forces, and cited the successful airlift of ammunition from Egypt to Lebanon in July as an example. RICCIARDONE