LOW TURNOUT IN SHURA COUNCIL ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 001777 SIPDIS SIPDIS NSC STAFF FOR WATERS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/11/2017 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM EG SUBJECT: LOW TURNOUT IN SHURA COUNCIL ELECTIONS REF: CAIRO 1717 CLASSIFIED BY ECPO COUNSELOR CATHERINE HILL-HERNDON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (SBU) THE MEDIA AND DOMESTIC EGYPTIAN CIVIL SOCIETY MONITORS, ALONG WITH EMBASSY OFFICERS AND THIRD COUNTRY DIPLOMATS, REPORTED LOW VOTER TURN-OUT, A SIGNIFICANT SECURITY PRESENCE IN SELECT AREAS, AND AN ISOLATED INCIDENT OF VIOLENCE DURING THE JUNE 11 ELECTIONS FOR 77 SEATS OF THE 264-MEMBER SHURA COUNCIL. THE NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY (NDP) DESCRIBED TURN-OUT AS "HIGH," BUT DID NOT PREDICT PARTICIPATION PERCENTAGES. ELECTION MONITORS CRITICIZED GOE SECURITY SERVICES FOR USING HEAVY-HANDED SECURITY TACTICS, INCLUDING BLOCKING OPPOSITION VOTERS ACCESS TO POLLING STATIONS. RESULTS WILL LIKELY BE ANNOUNCED WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. END SUMMARY. EMBASSY OFFICERS' OBSERVATIONS -------------- ¶2. (SBU) TURN-OUT: EMBASSY OFFICERS VISITED NINE GOVERNORATES OF EGYPT TO ASSESS JUNE 11 ELECTIONS FOR 77 SEATS OF THE 264-MEMBER SHURA COUNCIL. (DUE TO THE NDP NOMINATING THE SOLE CANDIDATES IN AN ADDITIONAL 11 RACES, THE NDP WON THESE SEATS BY DEFAULT BEFORE VOTING COMMENCED.) EMBOFFS REPORTED THAT TURN-OUT WAS LIGHT OVERALL; MANY POLLING STATIONS WERE EMPTY, OR NEARLY SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EVEN IN THE LARGEST CITIES OF CAIRO AND ALEXANDRIA. ONE EMBASSY LOCAL STAFQMEMBER, WHO VOTED AT 1500 LOCAL IN A DOWNTOWN CAIRO STATION, REPORTED THAT HIS VOTE WAS ONLY THE THIRD CAST IN THE TRANSPARENT BALLOT BOX. ¶3. (SBU) VIOLENCE/SECURITY: ELECTION DAY VIOLENCE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED INCIDENT IN EGYPT'S DELTA REGION. SECURITY CONTACTS REPORTED THAT ONE PERSON WAS KILLED AND FOUR INJURED WHEN MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) SUPPORTERS CLASHED WITH SECURITY FORCES. THERE WERE CONFLICTING REPORTS AS TO THE CAUSE OF THE CLASH. ONE PRESS ACCOUNT ATTRIBUTED IT TO PROBLEMS WITH GETTING MB CANDIDATES ON THE BALLOT. THE GOVERNOR OF SHARQIYA CITED "TRIBAL TENSIONS AND FAMILY FEUDS." EMBOFFS PERCEIVED THAT SECURITY OVERALL WAS HIGHER IN AREAS WHERE THE MB WERE COMPETING FOR SEATS; IN AREAS WHERE THE MB DID NOT FIELD CANDIDATES, THE SECURITY PRESENCE WAS MINIMAL. ¶4. (C) IRREGULARITIES: EMBASSY OFFICERS OBSERVED NUMEROUS IRREGULARITIES IN THE VOTING PROCESS. IN ONE DELTA GOVERNORATE, POLOFF OBSERVED ONLY MINISTRY OF INTERIOR AND NDP PERSONNEL INSIDE AT LEAST TWELVE DIFFERENT POLLING STATIONS, DESPITE GOE ASSURANCES THAT REPRESENTATIVES OF ALL CANDIDATES WOULD HAVE ACCESS TO STATIONS. TWO REPRESENTATIVES OF DIFFERENT INDEPENDENT CANDIDATES COMPLAINED TO A POLOFF ABOUT NOT BEING ALLOWED INSIDE POLLING STATIONS BY SECURITY OFFICIALS. EMBOFFS ALSO OBSERVED BALLOT BOX STUFFING IN A FEW STATIONS. ELECTION MONITORS' OBSERVATIONS -------------- ¶5. (SBU) DRAWING ON OBSERVATIONS BY MORE THAN 6000 INDIVIDUAL MONITORS, THREE NGO COALITIONS HAVE ISSUED PRELIMINARY STATEMENTS CRITICIZING THE SECURITY SERVICES FOR AN ARRAY OF HEAVY HANDED TACTICS, INCLUDING BLOCKADING OPPOSITION VOTERS' AND INDEPENDENT MONITORS' ACCESS TO SOME POLLING STATIONS. IN ADDITION, THE INDEPENDENT COMMITTEE FOR DEMOCRACY SUPPORT (ICDS),HEADED BY CAIRO'S IBN KHALDUN CENTER, ESTIMATED AT MID-DAY THAT TURNOUT RANGED BETWEEN THREE PERCENT IN THE SINAI AND SIX PERCENT IN MIDDLE EGYPT. THE ICDS ALSO CHARGED THAT MANY POLLING STATIONS APPEARED TO BE UNDER THE CONTROL OF OFFICIALS SYMPATHETIC TO THE RULING NDP, AS EVIDENCED BY NDP CANDIDATE BANNERS INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE POLLING STATIONS AS WELL AS PROHIBITIONS ON ACCESS TO MANY POLLING STATIONS BY NON-NDP PERSONNEL. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) WE EXPECT THAT RESULTS WILL BE ANNOUNCED WITHIN 24-48 HOURS. IT IS LIKELY THAT A NUMBER OF RACES WILL GO TO A RUN-OFF ON JUNE 18 SINCE ELECTION RULES REQUIRE WINNERS TO SECURE AN ABSOLUTE MAJORITY OF VOTES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REPORT ON RESULTS AND THE CONDUCT OF THE ELECTIONS AS DETAILS BECOME AVAILABLE. JONES