PRESIDENT NKURUNZIZA TAKES ACTION TO INITIATE

UNCLAS BUJUMBURA 000637 SIPDIS SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AF/C E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL BY SUBJECT: PRESIDENT NKURUNZIZA TAKES ACTION TO INITIATE ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL PROGRESS REF: BUJUMBURA 626 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: During the week of August 27, Ambassador Moller met with Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza and key political leaders in follow-up to the unprecendented Ngozi meetings the previous week between Nkurunziza and the opposition FRODEBU and UPRONA parties. President Nkurunziza called an impromptu tete-a-tete meeting with the Ambassador to update her on his progress with the looming IMF budgetary crisis and the security situation with the PALIPEHUTU-FNL. Notably, and in stark contrast to earlier meetings with the FRODEBU leader, party president Leonce Ngundakumana expressed satisfaction and optimism for cooperation with Nkurunziza's administration. Ngendakumana proclaimed that dialogue is now part of the culture of Burundi and the only alternative for ensuring progress. With much less enthusiasm, Aloys Rubuka, leader of UPRONA declared cautious optimism for a continued partnership with the current regime. The UPRONA party itself appears to be experiencing an internal meltdown, having split into two antagonistic factions principally over the ejection of Burundi First Vice-President, Dr. Martin Nduwimana, from the party. Leonard Nyangoma, the CNDD party president who recently returned from exile in Europe, presented a pessimistic view of the political landscape and the security sector. Nyangoma asserted that he and his party were ready to work with President Nkurunziza but declared his reinstatement to the National Assembly as a condition for his continued cooperation. Africa Public Radio announced that politicians close to Nkurunziza planned a false coup for the end of August to facilitate the President's rumored intent to wrest power from the National Assembly through the declaration of a state of emergency. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) In an impromptu meeting on August 30, President Nkurunziza updated Ambassador Moller on his progress in addressing a number of key issues plaguing Burundi's political and economic development. Nkurunziza appealed for the Ambassador to advocate on Burundi's behalf to the International Monetary Fund (IMF),calling for the IMF to continue providing budgetary support to Nkurunziza's government. The President noted that the IMF and the World Bank (WB) put stipulations on the continuation of their budgetary support and Nkurunziza claimed that he is working towards fulfilling those obligations. Nkurunziza told the Ambassador that Second Vice-President, Gabriel Ntisezerana, is closely monitoring the situation to ensure that the governmnet of Burundi (GOB) receives its planned budgetary assistance. Addressing the Interpetrol scandal which threatened to disrupt budgetary support, Nkurunziza said that a process is underway to seize Interpetrol's assets in a judicious and appropriate manner. Nkurunziza added that the government is working with Interpol to apprehend and extradite former Minister of Finance, Denise Sinankwa, and the Minsiter of Finance during Burundi's transition period, Athanase Gahungu, both of whom are suspected of wrongdoing in the scandal with the petroleum corporation. In reference to the 34% pay raise Nkurunziza promised to Burundi's civil servants, the President said it is accounted for in the current budget estimates. Nkurunziza claimed that, after some initial wrangling, the measure now has the approval of his entire cabinet; however, although it was unclear if the approval is a recent development or if Nkurunziza is referring to the time of its original proposal to the government. ¶3. (SBU) Turning his attention to the security sector, President Nkurunziza claimed that 1,500 police officers would be demobilized, possibly using a portion of Interpetrol's assets currently being frozen and secured by the government. (reftel) With regard to the continuing impasse with the PALIPEHUTU-FNL, President Nkurunziza asked the Ambassador to be aware and to understand that the PALIPEHUTU-FNL is still capable of creating difficulties for the Burundi government which may hinder compliance with a number of challenging IMF directives. In reference to the recent political stalemate, Ambassador Moller congratulated President Nkurunziza on initiating a good-faith dialogue with his political opposition parties and urged the President to continue along this important path. The Ambassador told Nkurunziza that she is continuing her meetings with political party leaders and members of the government continue to promotedialogue and encourage all parties to participate in the business of governing the country. ¶4. (SBU) On Sunday, August 26, Ambassador Moller accompanied the diplomatic corps to Gitega, Burundi's former capital city, to observe the second anniversary of the inauguration of the President. The Government was well-represented; cabinet ministers and other high officials attended. President Nkurunziza used his speech to emphasize some of the points recommended by IMF in its action plan to the GOB, including mention of the sale of the Presidential airplane and the Interpetrol scandal. ¶5. (SBU) The leaders of the Front for Democracy in Burundi (FRODEBU) party, Leonce Ngendakumana and his deputy Frederic Bamvuginyumvira, met with Ambassador Moller on August 27 and expressed optimism for a continuing and productive dialogue with President Nkurunziza. Expressing satisfaction with the prospect of further dialogue between FRODEBU and Nkurunziza, Ngendakumana stated that it is important to continue moving forward for the sake of Burundi's economic development. During FRODEBU's August 23 discussions with Nkurunziza in Ngozi, the Burundi president surprised Ngendakumana by agreeing that the current framework for the government cannot work. According to the FRODEBU party president, Nkurunziza recognized that it was a mistake to use political party power to form a government and that Nkurunziza is obliged to reach a compromise for ending the political stalemate. While commenting that he believes President Nkurunziza is beginning to understand the seriousness of Burundi's political and economic state, Ngendakumana also said that it is important for the Ambassador to continue supporting Nkurunziza because the President's ruling CNDD-FDD party is split and Nkurunziza no longer enjoys a political majority. In conclusion to their remarks, the FRODEBU leaders stated that their party is committed to moving forward in cooperation with Nkurunziza's administration. Ngendakumana stressed that FRODEBU simply wants an equitable participatory role in the government, explaining that if FRODEBU merely wanted political seats, they would have had them by now. ¶6. (SBU) Ngendakumana and Bamvuginyumvira met Nkurunziza in Ngozi on August 23 on the same day that Burundi's national police attempted to arrest FRODEBU party spokesman, Pancrace Cimpaye, for making disparaging remarks against Nkurunziza and his ruling CNDD-FDD party. Despite the subsequent tension and fear of violence, Ngendakumana explained that the two leaders decided to keep their appointment with Nkurunziza as a gesture of goodwill and to demonstrate that party politics should not be more important than the future of Burundi. Ngendakumana asserted that there is no longer an alternative to dialogue; dialogue is now in the Burundi culture, he continued, as it should be for all of Africa. ¶7. (SBU) On the heels of his meeting with Burundi President Pierre Nkurunziza in Ngozi, Union for National Progress (UPRONA) party chairman, Aloys Rubuka, visited the embassy on August 27 to update Ambassador Moller concerning the current relationship between his opposition party and Nkurunziza's government. Rubuka expressed satisfaction with Nkurunziza's gesture of goodwill by initiating clear and open dialogue between their two factions; however he held little confidence that dialogue alone would mend their political impasse. The party chairman lamented that Nkurunziza does not view the nation's problems with much importance, as evidenced by the President's August 26 anniversary speech which Rubuka claimed did not show a willingness by the government to move forward, nor did it focus on the nation's political and economic problems. Expecting more forward progress, Rubuka stated that Burundi's Partner Roundtable is the only significant accomplishment of Nkurunziza's tenure thus far. Rubuka also cited a recent meeting during which President Nkurunziza allegedly told European Ambassadors that all is well in Burundi and no major crises existed. ¶8. (SBU) Aloys Rubuka complained that President Nkurunziza has apparently chosen to eliminate opposition voices through force rather than opening a dialogue to address the political impasse. The UPRONA leader said that the President's ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense for Democracy (CNDD-FDD) party is split into two factions: a wing that is willing to open a dialogue with the opposition parties, and a stronger group that wants to use intimidation, threats and force to silence dissenting opinions. Rubuka referred to disparaging speeches by Nkurunziza, the publication of opposition names and photographs in a CNDD-FDD newspaper, and the grenade attacks against a number of Parliamentarians as recent examples of ruling party tactics. Rubuka stressed that this method of dealing with Nkurunziza's opposition voices is not a solution and will lead to fear and chaos which will expand to other sectors of society. ¶9. (SBU) When asked to share any specific recommendations that the UPRONA party could give to President Nkurunziza, Rubuka stated that the UPRONA party was in the midst of creating something 'concrete', but first wanted to be assured of the President's goodwill. Rubuka also emphasized that President Nkurunziza should not be embarrassed to fight and punish violators of human rights, corruption and embezzlement. Rubuka added that Nkurunziza must begin to appoint competent and appropriate people to positions of influence and authority. In closing, Rubuka claimed that the UPRONA party will remain available to any dialogue that Nkurunziza offers for the future. ¶10. (SBU) The UPRONA party, the second largest in opposition to President Nkurunziza and his ruling CNDD-FDD party, is imploding, threatening their ability to advance their causes in the current political arena. Late last week, UPRONA party chairman Aloys Rubuka, along with UPRONA hard-liner Terence Sinunguruza and other party supporters effectively expelled Burundi First Vice-President and UPRONA member Dr. Martin Nduwimana from the party. Rubuka and his followers reasoned that Nduwimana consistently ignored UPRONA party requests to consult the party before making any decisions on pending executive legislation. Nduwimana's supporters within the party are vehemently opposing the dismissal, declaring that there is no basis or legality to the action. The UPRONA party members further complained that Nduwimana is now 'playing the same game' as the Nkurunziza and his CNDD-FDD party rather than advancing the UPRONA party platform. On August 27, Rubuka and Sinunguruza called for an Executive Committee meeting to be held at UPRONA headquarters to discuss, among other issues, Nduwimana's expulsion. Nduwimana reportedly called for the national police to appear at UPRONA party headquarters to prevent any violence from occuring between the embattled and heated party factions. Rubuka countered that Nduwimana called the police to prevent expulsion supporters from attending the party's Executive Committee meeting and to prevent UPRONA members from listening to a planned press conference by chairman Rubuka, both events meant to advance Nduwimana's dismissal. ¶11. (SBU) CNDD party President Leonard Nyangoma met with Ambassador Moller on August 30 and presented his dire assessment of the political landscape. Although Nyangoma conceded forward progress at the level of the National Assembly, he held serious doubts the sincerity of President Nkurunziza's overture to dialogue with the political opposition, opining that Nkurunziza is simply putting on a show for the international community. Nyangoma questioned the support that the Burundi president has within his inner circle and with the National Assembly, claiming that 75% of the Parliament is against Nkurunziza but will not say so publicly for fear of reprisals. The CNDD president asserted that Nkurunziza is being duped by his closest advisors who do not want dialogue among the political rivals and are accumulating embezzled wealth. In particular, Nyangoma named CNDD-FDD party president Jeremie Ngendakumana; the head of the National Intelligence Service (SNR),Aldophe Nshimirimana; the Chief of Police, Alain Guillaume Bunyoni; and the Minister of the Interior, Evariste Ndayishimiye as members of Nkurunziza's circle of advisors. Nyangoma claims that the government has a history of corruption and abuses, and refuses to effectively address these issues through a judicial process and a Truth and Reconciliation Committee, for fear that powerful people may be implicated for past offenses. ¶12. (SBU) The CNDD party president described the security sector as steadily worsening. Nyangoma considers the relationship between the PALIPEHUTU-FNL and the government a key component to stabilizing the peace in Burundi but complained that Nkurunziza has apparently chosen an attitude of 'war' over dialogue as a resolution to the problem with the rebel faction. Nyangoma expressed concern over the steep rise in criminality that has occured within the country and personally feared for his own safety after reportedly having his name associated with a rumored false coup plot planned for the end of the month. Chief among Nyangoma's desires is his reinstatement to the National Assembly. Nyangoma lost his position in the Parliament in 2006 due to his extended absence while in exile. The matter of his reinstatement has not yet been decided by the Bureau of the National Assembly but Nyangoma asserts that his reinstatement is a pre-condition for any future dialogue with Nkurunziza's administration. ¶13. (SBU) On August 28, Ambassador Moller, accompanied by the Legal Attache (Legat) from Nairobi, Matteo Valles, and Embassy Assistant Regional Security Officer (A/RSO),Erik Olerud, called on Burundi's Chief of Police, Alain Guillaume Bunyoni. In the course of her meetings to ask a wide variety of local leaders for their assessment of Burundi's political situation and how best to move forward, the Ambassador took advantage of Legat Valles' presence to visit Bunyoni, widely touted as on of the country's three or four most powerful behind-the-scenes political players. Citing the excellent performance of Burundi's first and only student in the U.S. FBI Academy, Ambassador Moller told Bunyoni she had obtained the slot for Burundi by asking for it from the Deputy Director of the FBI during her trip to Washington in October ¶2006. She offered to make a request for an additional position during her upcoming 2008 consultations and discussed the desirability of police training. The A/RSO also elaborated on International Law Enforcement Academy (ILEA) training opportunities in Botswana. ¶14. (SBU) The Ambassador asked Bunyoni how he saw the political situation in Burundi, saying she had asked important and influential persons throughout Burundian society the same question. Bunyoni replied that he thought a lack of dialogue between, especially, political leaders of all parties is to blame. Bunyoni encouraged the political players to have more meetings and interaction as a way to move forward. Bunyoni then raised the subject of the incident at the Ambassador's residence when members of the national police surrounded the compound to prevent opposition FRODEBU party spokesperson, Pancrace Cimpaye, from seeking refuge. Bunyoni stated that an "administrative action" had already been taken against the supervisor who ordered the stakeout. The police chief hoped the Ambassador did not believe that the order had come from "high up the chain of command." Ambassador Moller assured the General she did not, saying she felt most welcome in Burundi. ¶15. (SBU) On August 27, African Public Radio (APR) announced that politicians close to President Nkurunziza planned to stage a 'false coup' as a precursor to establishing a state of emergency and eliminating political opposition. The state of emergency would allow President Nkurunziza to dissolve the National Assembly and dictate legislation from the executive office, thereby eliminating the political impasse that is inhibiting Burundi's economic development. APR reported the news item as a 'public courtesy' in the hopes that public awareness would dissuade the coup plotters from exposing Burundi's people to more violence. According to published reports, members of CNDD-FDD would team with members of the Tutsi-majority Burundi Armed Forces (FAB),a faction of the National Defense Forces (FDN),to announce the bloodless overthrow of Nkurunziza. Soon afterwards, members of the FDN loyal to Nkurunziza would reinstate Nkurunziza as the legitimate leader. Citing political instability, the plan called for Nkurunziza to subsequently declare a state of emergency. At the same time, key members of the political opposition and members of civil society would be silenced and 'eliminated' to mitigate any public backlash to Nkurunziza's seizure of political autonomy. The false coup designers allegedly planned the coup for the end of August. On August 29, the General Prosecutor in Bujumbura delivered a warrant to the Director of APF, Emmanuel Nsabimana, ordering his appearance before the court, reportedly in connection with the broadcast of the alleged false coup. ¶16. (SBU) Comment: President Nkurunziza's realization of the gravity of the financial problems facing Burundi is clearly the highlight of the week. The prevailing thought among political and economic observers centered around Nkurunziza's apparent lack of interest in addressing the various financial scandals or the political stalemate which is hindering economic progress. The cessation of IMF and WB budgetary assistance would have disastrous effects on Burundi's population and, arguably, lead to general strikes and certainly public disturbances. Nkurunziza's sophisticated and intelligent description of his actions to address the country's woes bolsters the hope that the Burundi President may finally be eschewing party bickering in favor of the economic survival of his people. Equally impressive is Nkurunziza's gesture of goodwill and dialogue towards his political enemies. It is yet to be seen if this is all a show for international observers or if his intentions to work with UPRONA and FRODEBU are sincere. Nonetheless, this is a step in the right direction. The progress of the major opposition parties seems fraught with highs and lows and, between UPRONA and FRODEBU, who appear to be moving in opposite directions. FRODEBU's sudden cooperative stance and willingness to form some sort of coalition to overcome the political impasse, especially as it coincides with apparent acts of initimidation and harassment by the ruling government, shows a maturity in their approach that is clearly a recent development. On the other hand, UPRONA, the normally more passive of the two major opposition voices, is in a clear meltdown as they struggle for internal power rather than focusing on advancing their agenda with Nkurunziza's administration. With his widely regarded reputation as a major power-broker behind the executive office, establishing a new line of communication with the intelligent and well-educated Police Chief Bunyoni may prove to be very valuable as well. On balance, despite the rise in criminality, the struggle to lure the PALIPEHUTU-FNL back to the ceasefire implementation, and the rumors of political coups, the accomplishments of President Nkurunziza coupled with the a new attitude by the once thorny FRODEBU party puts Burundi on a more positive and upward footing. End Comment. MOLLER