FNL FLEES BURUNDIAN PEACE PROCESS IN DRAMATIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000538 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR AF/C AND AF/RSA E.O. 12958: DECL: 2017/07/25 TAGS: MARR PGOV PINR PREL BY SUBJECT: FNL FLEES BURUNDIAN PEACE PROCESS IN DRAMATIC FASHION REF: A. BUJUMBURA 534 ¶B. BUJUMBURA 466 Classified By: Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for reasons 1. 4b and d. ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: The National Force for Liberation (FNL), the last hold-out rebel group, has fled the negotiating table and Bujumbura in a severe rupture of the year long attempts to implement a June 2006 cease-fire agreement. The 25 member negotiating team has been reduced to three members of the FNL, all members of the political wing of the party, according to South African Ambassador to Burundi Lembede. The departure of the FNL negotiators was not a surprise to individuals involved in the negotiations, but the method in which some of the negotiators fled was quite spectacular, including scaling walls and climbing out of second story windows. The future of the negotiations remains in jeopardy. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) In a July 25 briefing to the diplomatic corps, South African Ambassador to Burundi Mdu Lembede gave details of the most recent breakdown of the Joint Verification Monitoring Mechanism (JVMM),the organization responsible for the implementation of the cease fire agreement between the Government of Burundi (GOB) and the last hold-out rebel group, the National Force for Liberation (FNL). A South African team holds the facilitator role in the discussions. During the briefing, Lembede emphasized the previous success of the JVMM, provided clear details on the recent failure of the JVMM, and appealed for suggestions from the diplomatic community. The bulk of the briefing focused on the disappearance of 22 of the 25 FNL negotiators from the negotiating team, as media speculation on the event has been varied and often uninformed. The facilitation team will meet after August 2 to determine a new course of action. ¶3. (U) Lembede highlighted the recent accomplishments of the negotiations, including the July 16 agreement between the GOB and the FNL, in which both sides agreed upon a framework for releasing FNL political prisoners. The outcome of the July 16 meeting was a direct result of a June 6, head to head meeting in Tanzania between Burundian President Nkurunziza and FNL leader Agathon Rwasa (ref B). -------------- New FNL Maneuvers -------------- ¶4. (U) Subsequent to the July 16 agreement, the FNL returned to the negotiating table on July 20 and in an about face, abruptly demanded the unconditional release of all of its political prisoners. The South African facilitator to the negotiations noted at this point that it was clear that "attempts were being made to not implement the cease-fire agreement." The FNL team then disputed the terms of reference for assembly areas for demobilized soldiers, disagreed with certain aspects of a Forces Technical Agreement, and complained of threats to personal security. (Note: FNL negotiators have received threatening phone calls at home, according to Embassy sources.) ¶5. (U) Rumors began circulating in the middle of the week of July 16 that the FNL planned to abandon the negotiations. FNL negotiators live in fifteen houses scattered around Bujumbura; reports of fully loaded taxis bearing suitcases, boxes and personal belongings departing late at night from these residences quickly followed the initial rumors. ¶6. (U) Perhaps not uncoincidentally, the six month rotation of South African troops in charge of protecting FNL negotiators also took place the week of July 16. As part of the rotation, the troops performed a routine inventory control on July 20. The inventory showed four rifles missing. The four rifles were later found in a subsequent inventory review. In an effort to locate the missing rifles, the commander of the South African ordered all soldiers to stand down, thus restricting the movement of FNL negotiators. -------------- Dramatic Stage Exits -------------- ¶7. (U) The following day, Saturday, July 21, FNL negotiators began objecting to their confinement. As the troops in charge of protecting them were unable to move, so too were the negotiators restricted to their homes. In a bid to allow the negotiators freedom of movement for the weekend, the lead FNL negotiator, Jean-Berchmans Ndayishimiye, insisted upon making a formal complaint to the South African Ambassador Lembede at Lembede's residence. While traveling to the Ambassador's residence, Ndayishimiye told his South African escorts he wanted to meet a contact before lodging his complaint with the Ambassador. As the car climbed through the exclusive Kiriri neighborhood on the hill behind the city of Bujumbura, Ndayishimiye asked the driver to stop the car. A group of around 10 armed FNL soldiers came into view and surrounded the vehicle. About half of the FNL soldiers were in uniform. Ndayishimiye exited the vehicle and informed the South African troops he was going to consult with someone and would return in two hours. He did not come back. ¶8. (U) After the commander of the South African troops heard his men had been surrounded by FNL soldiers, he reaffirmed the order for the South Africans to stay put. On Sunday July 22, the South African team contacted African Union Ambassador Mamadou Bah for guidance. Bah responded that the FNL negotiators should be free to come and go as they please. At this point, the protective forces no longer inhibited the movement of their charges. ¶9. (U) The FNL negotiating team met to undertake negotiations as scheduled on Monday, July 23. One negotiator claimed sickness and proceeded to the hospital, accompanied by two of her colleagues. In dramatic fashion, the three negotiators proceeded to climb out of the hospital room window, cross the hospital grounds, and scurry over the wall. Later that day, another negotiator locked himself in his room, descended from his second story window with the assistance of a ladder, crossed the yard, and also climbed over the wall. By the start of negotiations on Wednesday, July 25, only three of the original 25 member negotiating team showed up for the negotiations. The remaining three represent the political wing of the FNL; all military members of the negotiating have disappeared. -------------- Back To The Table? -------------- ¶10. (U) At the conclusion of his briefing, the South African Ambassador did not offer an official response from the South African facilitators. He commented that the facilitator team has sent a team member to Dar Es Salaam to speak with FNL leadership there on July 30. The facilitator will then move on to meet with Burundian President on July 31, the chief of the facilitation team on August 1, and the Tanzanian President on August 2. The facilitation team will then determine a next course of action. ¶11. (SBU) During the desertion of the FNL from Bujumbura, the facilitation was in continual contact with FNL leadership in Dar Es Salaam. according to the Tanzanian Ambassador to Burundi, Brigadier General Francis Mndolwa. Mndolwa continued that the FNL leadership assured the facilitators that negotiations would continue and FNL lead negotiator Ndayishimiye had only left for consultation. Mndolwa then reported that the Foreign Minister of Tanzania eventually spoke with Agathon Rwasa, leader of the FNL rebel movement, and expressed his frustration at the breakdown of negotiations. Rwasa responded that he had not been in touch with his troops, people make their own decisions on the ground, and his negotiators were concerned they might be accused of stealing the missing rifles. ¶12. (U) The Burundian Army (FDN) informed the facilitation on July 25 that the FDN had known of the impending FNL departure for nearly a week. The FDN added that the FNL is also near its recruitment goal and is "intent on stirring up conflict", according to the South African Ambassador. Burundian President Nkurunziza met with his Security Chiefs yesterday, but spokespersons have remained quiet on the content or outcome of the meeting. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) The rumors surrounding this most recent breakdown of negotiations reach far and wide in this small country. The fact that the facilitation has not gotten out in front of this story has contributed to wild speculation in the local media. While the FNL does not pose a serious threat to the FDN, it is highly possible the FNL may attempt to create a stir by undertaking small scale, headline-grabbing operations. It is especially interesting, and puzzling, to note the great lengths FNL negotiators undertook to "escape." Negotiators were free to come and go as of July 22, yet still climbed out of windows and scaled walls when they could have walked out the front door. ¶14. (C) The timing of this breakdown is slightly suspect, as the president is facing political difficulties due to his recent cabinet reshuffle. It is certain that opposition parties will exploit the breakdown of talks to place pressure on the government in order to advance their partisan objectives. If the FNL refuses to return to the negotiating table, one can question the original good faith of both the GOB and the FNL when the cease-fire agreement was signed in September 2006. Both sides privately expressed reservations about the accord immediately prior to the signing. END COMMENT MOLLER