BURUNDI'S RULING PARTY SETS CONGRESS DATE; WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000036

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/C

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM MARR BY
SUBJECT: BURUNDI'S RULING PARTY SETS CONGRESS DATE; WILL
RADJABU GO?

REF: BUJUMBURA 27

Classified By: Ambassador Patricia Moller for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D.)


1. (C) Summary: The CNDD-FDD party Congress is
tentatively scheduled for February 6. Although party head
Hussein Radjabu originally sought to place one of his
allies at the helm of a committee to prepare for the
conference, the CNDD-FDD's spokesperson subsequently
announced that Radjabu's pick would serve as Vice
President. A prominent party leader, a former Radjabu
supporter, has privately told Embassy that Radjabu's
removal was assured and suggested that the government might
subsequently seek to investigate his role in certain
decisions. Presidential Political advisor Gabriel
Mpozagara told the Ambassador on January 31 that no one
should doubt that President Nkurunziza, rather than the
president of the CNDD-FDD, wields the power. End Summary.



2. (U) The ruling National Council for Defense of
Democracy - Front for Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) plans
to hold an extraordinary party congress on Tuesday,
February 6, in Bujumbura, according to the party's
spokesperson. The announcement follows a an appeal from
Minister of Interior Evariste Ndayishimiye to hold the
conference prior to February 10, rather than on February 24
as originally proposed. The party announced on January 30
that it had appointed 25 members, including key party
leaders, to serve on a commission to prepare for the
session. The embattled head of the party, Hussein Radjabu,
reportedly sought to appoint one of his proteges, Martin
Mbazumutima, the President's Chief of Staff, as president
of the commission; however, on January 31, the party
announced that Mbazumutima would instead serve as
vice-president, while the party's spokesperson, Evariste
Nsabiyumva, would head the group. Other prominent members
of the committee include Minister of Communications
Ramadhan Karenga, Jean Marie Ngendahayo, husband of the
current Minister of Foreign Affairs and himself a former
minister, and Mohamed Rukara, a senator who is also the
Secretary General of the regional Islamic Conference.

SIPDIS


3. (C) Senator Rukara, a former Radjabu ally who has since
publicly denounced the party head, told DCM on January 31
that the party would remove Radjabu from his position at
the conference. Rukara downplayed his role on the party's
planning commission, saying that he is included by virtue
of his position as chairperson of the party's Council of
Wise Men ("Conseil des Sages.") He added, however, that he
is personally seeking to convince Radjabu not to put his
name forward as a candidate for a leadership position in
the party.


4. (C) Rukara dismissed speculation that, rather than
immediately oust Radjabu, the CNDD-FDD might seek to create
a new Vice President position in an effort to limit
Radjabu's authority. He asserted that such a scheme would
be doomed to failure. Rukara reiterated that party members
would elect to remove Radjabu, adding that his departure
would centralize power in the Presidency and strengthen the
President's position. Asked whether the Government of
Burundi might then seek to bring Radjabu to trial, Rukara
opined that it would be appropriate to investigate his role
in certain matters, such as the sale of the Presidential
plane (Ref A) and political killings in Muyinga, and to
take appropriate judicial action. Asked further about the
potential effect such a trial could have on the country's
political climate, Rukara indicated that he did not believe
that a trial would be destabilizing.


5. (C) Rukara continued that, because of his outspoken
opposition to Radjabu, many in the Muslim community have
advised him that his life is in danger. Meeting for a
round of golf, Rukara arrived with four heavily armed
bodyguards who accompanied him around the links, although
at a discreet distance. He explained that the head of the
Intelligence Services, General Adolphe Nshimirimana, had
assigned the security contingent to protect him, advising
that Nshirimana's office believed that individuals in the
Islamic community would seek to kill him. Rukara, who is
one of the most respected and most well known members of
Burundi's Muslim community, characterized himself as a
religious moderate who maintained good relations with
representatives of the Christian community. He suggested
that Radjabu and extremist elements of the Muslim community
sought to politicize the faith. Fortunately, said Rukara,

he still enjoys great popularity in the community, which
affords him a certain measure of protection.


6. (C) At a luncheon with the Ambassador on January 31,
Presidential advisor Gabriel Mpozagara discussed the
CNDD-FDD's ongoing leadershp rhubarb. Mpozagara told the
Ambassador that no one in Burundi should doubt that it is
President Nkurunziza, not the president of the CNDD-FDD
party, who wields the real power. Nkurunziza enjoys the
complete support of the army as the elected leader of the
nation, as well as the full support of Burundi's
electorate, Mpozagara said. When asked if he thought
Radjabu would go quietly if ousted at the February 6 party
congress, Mpozagara replied that everyone hoped he would go
quietly, but if he didn't, unquestionably, Nkurunziza would
prevail.


7. (C) Comment: Although opinion remains divided as to
whether the CNDD-FDD will succeed in removing Radjabu, many
senior officials are determined that he must go. The
balance of power appears to be moving slowly but steadily
in the direction of the Presidency. It is likely that many
of the discussions behind the scenes now center, not about
whether he should leave, but about how to effect his
departure in a way which will save some face and minimize
the possibility of violent retribution.

MOLLER