MEDIA REACTION; THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION; US EMBARGO ON

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000660 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION; US EMBARGO ON CUBA; LATIN AMERICAN DEBATE ON BIO-FUELS; US-ARGENTINE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP; 04/09/07; BUENOS AIRES ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend international stories focus on an alleged decline in neo-conservatives' clout on the Bush administration; a reported reduction in popular support for the US embargo imposed on Cuba; a debate in Latin America about the bio-fuels option; and the status of the US-Argentine bilateral relationship. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS - "The Decline of Bush's 'Neocons'" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (04/08) "Once upon a time, neo-conservatives thought that George W. Bush was the president of whom they had always dreamt. It happened shortly after the September 11 attacks, when the Republican who came from Texas announced to the world his 'pre-emptive war' doctrine. "However, their illusion gradually vanished. Today, the toughest and most ideology-driven 'hawks' in control of the US foreign policy believe that Bush lost his command. The debacle in Iraq, lack of progress with Iran and North Korea and the continued threat posed by terrorist groups like al Qaeda and Hezbollah prompted Bush to give an opportunity to his Secretary of State Condoleezza's Rice more realistic discourse. "Nevertheless, 'neo-cons' perceive all this as their own withdrawal and that of the US, as well as the Bush administration's lack of competitiveness in its most valued project - the downfall of Saddam Hussein and the establishment of a Western democracy in the heart of the Middle East." - "A Corpse" Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," penned (04/08) "For a long time, the embargo imposed on Cuba has become one of the most noteworthy unburied political 'corpses' in the US strategy towards Fidel Castro. "The regime used this pressure to proclaim a state of war that was specifically justified by the blockade, which also fostered some predictable form of nationalism in a proud people who did not react as the drafters of said 45-year-long policy had imagined. It is hard to tell what would have occurred on the island if, instead, an open trade policy had flooded Cuba with US tourists and merchandise. Possibly, the regime would not have changed, but perhaps some of its policies would have. China and Vietnam are just a couple of examples of what this scenario would have been like." - "An exhilarating debate" Ricardo Kirschbaum, general editor of leading "Clarin," opines (04/08) "Washington never liked Mercosur (trade bloc) because it always preferred to negotiate individual deals with every single country... "Washington's stance has been consistent and was made public every time there was an attempt to get united in defense of the common interests of the (countries of the) region. "However, it is also true that Chavez adds major political weight to Mercosur and raises its profile through challenging mega-projects that will be funded by Venezuelan oil surplus like, for instance, the Southern gas pipe line... and the Bank of the South, which is questioned by Brazil. "The new thing is the debate about bio-fuels... Both Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez agree in attempting to spoil Brazil's closeness to Washington in this regard. "Clearly enough, Venezuela sells abundant oil to the US and no one would dare question this trade. Why then should Brazil be questioned for the bio-fuels issue? Brazil is a country with major energy problems but it has the means to reduce its (oil) dependence. "It is a crucial issue in which the countries of the region should make a decision according to their national interests... An exhilarating debate is taking place and Argentina cannot miss it." - "The other country that hides its bonanza" Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed piece by its political editor Eduardo van der Kooy, who comments (04/08) "... After three and a half years in office, (President Nestor) Kirchner is well-known in Washington, and cards (about the US-Argentine bilateral relationship) seem to be laid on the table. "Ties between President Kirchner and George W. Bush will maintain their current state of indifference, which led the White House to prioritize Lula da Silva... Lula is now the strong and trustworthy man in the region in the framework of the imaginary Buenos Aires-Brasilia axis. "Why? Lula is not reported to have made major concessions to Washington, quite the contrary. Brazil steadily continues stating its points of view on international trade and it has indirectly been helped by some gestures of the Argentine Government. One of them was the useless provocation represented by Hugo Chavez's anti-Bush rally in Ferro during Bush's Latin American tour... Others were Kirchner's repeated gestures of rapprochement to the caudillo... "This behavior of Kirchner's raises mistrust. Also, US politicians and legislators do not understand either why the President, who has the right to be re-elected and has sound social support, might prefer to cede his turn to his wife. "... If Argentina's political future were to be ruled by the will of the Kirchner couple, the political and institutional system would be indefinitely fragile. "Washington cannot understand Kirchner. Meanwhile, Cristina raises expectations and curiosity. The focus is placed on three aspects - the first Lady's objective of improving the quality of institutions, particularly, the judicial system; the road her hypothetical government could follow vis-`-vis the country's ties to Chavez; and her shrewdness in building a two-headed administration, with her husband in the shadows. "Her meeting with Venezuelan Israeli Associations, which have a tense relationship with Chavez, whose administration is critical of Israel and an ally of Iran, had a positive impact on Washington. "Obviously enough, these signs are satisfactory for Washington, although they do not seem enough to dispel doubts regarding Argentine-Venezuelan ties... Nothing leads us to believe that she could have a different view from that of her husband about the benefits of Argentina's ties to Caracas." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE