MEDIA REACTION; CHAVEZ IN ARGENTINA, MIDDLE EAST, 03/05/07;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000429 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; CHAVEZ IN ARGENTINA, MIDDLE EAST, 03/05/07; BUENOS AIRES ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Papers lead with Bush's up-coming trip to the region aimed at reinforcing a 'positive agenda' - amid Argentina's preparation of Chavez' mass public rally against President Bush's visit to Uruguay -, and the repercussions of U.S. announcement of a summit in Iraq, which includes Iran and Syria. ¶2. OPINION PIECES - "Bush Kicks Off Unusual Latam Tour" Hugo Alconada Mon, daily-of-record "La Nacion" Washington-based correspondent, writes (03/05) "President Bush begins next Wednesday his Latam trip - which doesn't include Argentina --, and which will be full of gestures and messages. In practice, it will try to prove U.S. interest in the region, despite its obsession with Iraq, Iran and the rest of the Middle East, and also, all the challenges posed by Chavez and his allies. ".... The five countries that Bush will visit were picked with a single purpose: underscoring 'a positive agenda' based on 'hope', said A/S Shannon during his hearing in Congress last Thursday. ".... Bush will try to reinforce this agenda today with a speech at the Wilson Center, focusing on social development in the region within democratic institutions and everything the U.S. has to offer, such as the bio-fuels partnership with Brazil. ".... Argentina won't be part of the tour. 'We knew there might be claims, but we had no other choice,' said a USG source. The Bush administration views President Kirchner as a distant figure, who didn't invite Bush to Buenos Aires, but doesn't want to break all its ties, even though Chavez will hold his Bolivarian rally in Argentina. ".... Washington's first goal in this regional tour is to reinforce ties with their governments. With Brazil, the U.S. will nail down a partnership on biofuels; with Uruguay it will strengthen trade ties; in Colombia it will endorse the fight against drug-traffickers, paramilitary and guerrillas; in Guatemala, it will compensate the government after helping them defeat Venezuela in the fight for a UNSC seat, and in Mexico, it will try to develop the South and reinforce security in the North of the country. "But in Washington's opinion, the most important role for the White House will be to send 'gestures of interest' to people in those countries. 'The trip is a matter of diplomatic presence in the region. The Bush administration has been accused in Washington of failing in Latin America, of ignoring it and, with this trip, it wants to say it cares,' said the Executive Director of the Council of Hemispheric Affairs, Larry Birns...." - "Bush and Chavez Assess Forces in Their Latam Tours" Business-financial BAE says (03/05) "Bush will kick off his tour in Brazil, after conceding he 'abandoned' the U.S. back yard in the past years, which led to a strong anti-U.S. sentiment due to Washington's foreign policy; and all this, in the framework of many countries moving away from the neo-Liberal economic model advanced by the White House. "At the same time, Chavez, who maintains a strong dialectical confrontation with Bush, will visit those countries that were left out of the U.S. President's agenda: Argentina and Bolivia, with which he maintains strong cooperation on an issue that's attracting Bush to the region: energy. "With these trips, each one will try generating new areas of cooperation or reinforcing the existing one. These past weeks, and in the wake of Bush's imminent regional tour, the White House kept silent on critical comments coming from the region, and particularly those from Chavez. "But this silence only tries to avoid disturbing waters before landing in Latam. According to a Brazilian daily, Bush is 'obsessed' with Chavez, whom he believes is more dangerous than Fidel Castro, because 'he conquers with money what the Cuban conquered with ideology.' "In this context, the underlying goal of Bush's trip will be to recover presence in the region. But in practice, he will sign energy and trade deals...." - "Chavez' Rally Will Cost 600,000 Pesos" Mariano Obarrio, daily-of-record "La Nacion" political columnist writes (03/04) "Social movements, picketers and Venezuelan military chiefs finalized the details of the anti-Bush rally that will be headed by Chavez on Friday, at 6 pm., at a soccer stadium, and agreed that the 600,000 pesos needed for its organization will be controlled by the Kirchner administration, which was unable to impose its idea of doing it in a smaller venue. ".... According to high GOA sources, Kirchner wanted to reduce the controversial rally to 6,000 people, in order to exercise more control on the attendees. "The anti-Bush rally sparked strong annoyance within the USG and the Jewish community, at odds with Venezuela, with whom Kirchner tried to maintain a difficult balance. "Finally, the Bolivarian leader will address an audience of 40,000 people. Around 300 Venezuelan military will be in charge of the rally's security and pro-Kirchner picketers will assign 1,000 of their men to mingle with the crowd in prevention of clashes. ".... Chavez's speech will strongly criticize Bush on the same day he's in Uruguay, meeting with Tabare. The U.S. was concerned by Kirchner's gesture, but the USG clarified that bilateral relations are good on the issue of cooperation in the fight against drug-trafficking and terrorism. "According to a high GOA source, 'Kirchner and Chavez' idea was, since the beginning, to send a strong gesture of rejection of Bush's regional tour', and the bottom-line of the message will be 'Welcome Chavez, for Latam unity. Bush, out!" "And a social leader said 'Chavez' 300 military will try to counteract the 1,200 men that Bush will bring to Uruguay'...." - "U.S. Drastic U-turn: Iran Confirms There Have Been Contacts" Ana Baron, leading "Clarin" Washington-based correspondent, opines (03/04) ".... Even though the White House has been denying all sorts of contacts with Iran, FM spokesman Hosseini assured that the U.S. tried 'through several channels' to establish direct dialogue with Tehran precisely on Iraq's security. Hosseini added that Iran is analyzing Washington's proposals. "Allegedly, one of those channels is former President Rafsanjani, who is exercising growing influence in Tehran, according to former Arab League representative at the UN Clovis Maksoud. ".... With the inclusion of Iran and Syria at the March 10 summit in Baghdad, announced by Secretary Rice, the White House confirms its determination to sit at a negotiating table with these two countries, when only a couple of weeks ago it had rejected such possibility. "What's the reason for this U-turn? What will be its range? "According to Maksoud, it's an attempt to include the focus of the Baker report on Iraq, without really implementing it. It's also an acknowledgement that he no longer has the liberty he had before the Democrats recovered the majority in Congress. "The U-turn began with the appointment of a member of that group - Robert Gates - as Secretary of Defense... And the first evidence of this change was the nuclear agreement with North Korea...." - "Hawks" Marcelo Cantelmi, leading "Clarin" international editor, opines (03/04) "...George W. Bush and Mahmud Almadinejah have a lot in common and so will have their political fate. Both have lost the support of their government structures... In the case of Iran, it's hard to tell how Ahmadinejad will survive without the iron-clad back-up of the supreme leadership. Like Bush, he will experience a drastic U-turn towards a diplomatic way out, viewed more like a last resort than a victory. Only their enemies will benefit from that change. But if this is good news, reality isn't as good. Their situation is so complex that it seems too little and too late a move to succeed..." - "Iran Agrees to Negotiate, but Imposes Conditions on U.S." Leading "Clarin" says (03/05) "Iran's regime reiterated yesterday that the U.S. did in fact propose direct dialogue during the regional conference on Iraq that will take place next weekend in Baghdad, but made clear that, for now, those contacts will take place within a multilateral meeting. According to Iranian FM spokesman Hosseini, his government doesn't plan to hold face-to-face talks with Washington. "The official said Tehran is analyzing U.S. proposals of direct talks, but so far, the issue is not on Iran's agenda...." ¶3. EDITORIALS - "Iran vs. International Community" An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (03/03) "Despite serious warnings by the UNSC, Iran continued with its nuclear program. This leads us to think that a confrontation with the international community might be inevitable. ".... The five permanent members of the UNSC, plus Germany, are actively discussing the possible sanctions they may impose on a country that refuses to abide by UN charter obligations. Given that Russia and China are reluctant to impose these sanctions, due to their close trade ties with Iran, the task won't be easy. "In this context, it's not hard to witness some 'war games', as well as all kinds of warnings converging on Iran, which are also disturbing for all, given that a new conflict in the Gulf might lead to a global crisis of absolutely unforeseeable consequences. ".... This is why the positive response to the recent request by Iraq of a regional conference aimed at designing a policy to put an end to the sectarian civil war that is ravaging the country, sheds a light of hope. This is an opportunity for diplomatic dialogue between Iran and the international community that ought to be expanded, rather than overlooked. ".... With realism, the U.S. seems to have decided, similarly to what took place with the North Korean crisis, to give another chance to diplomatic dialogue with third party States. This is an instrument without which, it's always difficult to eradicate violence." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE