(C) KIRCHNER STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS: A

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON AR
SUBJECT: (C) KIRCHNER STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS: A
PUGNACIOUS CAMPAIGN LAUNCH


Classified By: DCM MICHAEL MATERA, REASONS 1.5 (B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In what amounts to an annual state of the
union address, President Kirchner opened the GOA Congress's
2007 session on March 1 with a two hour, 15-minute speech,
touting his administration's economic achievements, its
"regained" political independence, and taking shots at the
usual suspects - the IMF, economic naysayers, the press, the
opposition and Uruguay. The United States was not mentioned
by name, but implied in a veiled reference to those who
"would question Argentina's growing closeness" to Venezuela.
A planned mass rally of 30,000 Kirchner supporters was
largely washed out by massive rains. Despite the usual fiery
rhetoric, the speech was largely and perhaps predictably a
re-packaging of attack lines Kirchner has used on many
previous occasions, with the added theater of the opening of
Congress. In fact, there was little, if any, new material at
all in the remarks, and many commentators and opposition
figures characterized it as a campaign speech rather than
state of the union. In fact, the speech appeared designed to
launch the long march toward October presidential elections.
The purported visit of Venezuelan President Chavez is, in
this sense, probably the next big campaign event designed to
show that he is bringing economic benefits home and doing it
his way. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) OPENING OF CONGRESS SETS OUT ACHIEVEMENTS AND
AGENDA. Amidst heavy rains, this annual and formal ritual
was attended by the full cabinet, many state governors,
diplomats (including Ambassador Wayne),and many other VIPs.
The speech was widely covered, and on live television, amidst
some speculation that this could be Kirchner,s last such
annual address to Congress: while Kirchner is still widely
expected to run for reelection in October, both he and his
close advisors continue to suggest publicly that his wife
Senator Cristina Kirchner is being considered as a candidate.
Kirchner,s speech did nothing to clear up who will be the
Kirchner candidate in October. The audience broke out in
applause about a dozen times, mostly over the usual
references to Argentina overcoming its past years of economic
and political crises and "escape from hell," the
"restoration" of its sovereignty and "dignity," and that "we
have overcome our worst moments."


3. (U) A LAUNDRY LIST OF ECONOMIC ACHIEVEMENTS. Kirchner
devoted a large part of his very long speech to touting his
administration's achievements, lauding improvements in
unemployment, poverty, growth, budget and current account
surpluses, country risk, reserve accumulation, and the state
retirement system. Argentina "regaining sovereignty" had
permitted such recovery and improvement in its socio-economic
situation.


4. (SBU) DEFENDS HIS ACTIONS AND EGGS ON HIS DETRACTORS;
ATTACKS THE USUAL SUSPECTS - IMF, NAYSAYERS, OUTSIDERS.
Kirchner said many times that his leadership was an
"Argentine model" for growth and inclusiveness. He did not
miss an opportunity to ridicule those who he said have long
predicted an energy crisis, and that his administration is
properly responding to the great increase in energy demand.
He also defended his administration's strategy of



renegotiating public utility contracts and maintaining
below-market public utility tariffs, saying that he would not
"give in" to outside interests. He also questioned the press
and opposition, challenging the opposition to produce
solutions. Kirchner repeated his usual barbs against the
IMF, several times referring to the "IMF dictatorship,"
trumpeting his December 2005 decision to pay off the
remaining USD 10.2 billion in IMF debt, and praising himself
for dispatching that "burden." Kirchner said that the
naysayers were wrong, as reserves have doubled from the time
the debt was paid off. He said that "with all due respect to
the intellectual capacity of the IMF, we have our own
sensibilities and ability to administer our country to bring
about a very different and better situation." Kirchner said
that the IMF had brought poverty and exclusion to Argentina,
and that he had begun to reverse that. In a further
rejection of any possible IMF program as part of a deal to
pay off GOA's Paris Club debt (which he said he still wanted,
nonetheless),Kirchner used rude street language, saying
basically "shove it" to any such IMF agreement, and "under no
situation or circumstance are we open to an IMF agreement," a
point also met with loud applause. (Comment: Local media
perhaps made this reference appear more even more provocative
than it actually was, notwithstanding his rude language. He
did preface this remark about a rejection of an IMF deal with
a clear statement that "we want to pay our debt (to the Paris
Club). End comment.) He also repeatedly lashed out at the
domestic opposition by deriding policies of the nineties.


5. (U) HUMAN RIGHTS. Kirchner spent several minutes
reviewing his human rights policies, using the opportunity to
mention the disappearance of Dirty War witness Jorge Julio
Lopez. He also said that those who postulated that the
kidnapping and alleged torture of Dirty War witness Luis
Gerez was a political maneuver are trying to smear the
President. He pledged to continue fighting for human rights,
saying "I am not afraid. I know what we are facing, but as
President of the Republic, I must be out front in the battle
for justice, truth, and later, the loss of fear." He also
urged judges to accelerate hearing of long-pending human
rights cases, and also offered an olive branch, saying that
he does not seek "revenge, only justice, memory and truth."


6. (SBU) VENEZUELA: NO ONE TELLS US WHO OUR FRIENDS SHOULD
BE. Kirchner defended his alliance with Venezuelan President
Hugo Chavez and the decision to let Venezuela join Mercosur.
He alluded to U.S. pressure to moderate Chavez, saying "for
years we have been subordinate to other central countries.
Today, when I hear that it is dangerous to have relations
with South American countries, I wonder what is the risk of
being close to a brother country like Venezuela that has
helped Argentina so much." He added that Argentina will
"always be a latinamericanist country." (Comment: upon
reading the text of his speech, it appears that press
statements that highlighted this brief remark appear to have
taken it out of context. He actually was speaking in
reference to Venezuela buying Argentine bonds without
(political) conditions, but that people (read: the U.S.) were
still questioning his increasing ties to Venezuela. End
comment) (Additional comment: Kirchner's comments in support
of Chavez and his comments on being subordinate to other
countries and on seeing little risk in being close to Chavez,
play well with the domestic audience. It also indicates that
he either no longer sees any serious consequences to the
alliance or no longer cares what those consequences could be.
End additional comment.)


7. (U) ANOTHER SWIPE AT "BROTHERLY" URUGUAY OVER PULP MILL
DISPUTE. Kirchner used the speech to again criticize
Uruguay's handling of the ongoing paper mill dispute that has
soured their relations. Kirchner addressed Uruguayan
President Tabare Vasquez by name, saying Argentina wants to
negotiate but that Uruguay only wants Argentina to give in.
He added that "it is not Argentina that has violated the
Treaty of Uruguay River," taking another swipe at Uruguay.
He said that Argentina wants a real negotiation on the issue
and peace with their "Uruguayan brothers and sisters."


8. (U) PLANNED 30,000 PIQUETERO-PERONIST RALLY GETS RAINED
ON. According to press reports, Kirchner had arranged for
30,000 piquetero and peronist supporters to regale him on his
way from the Casa Rosada to Congress. However, heavy rains
and floods dampened the event, for which only about 600
dedicated Kirchner supporters materialized. Most did not get
to hear or see his speech but had to stay sheltered indoors
and some even sought shelter form the rains under one of the
two large inflated penguins meant to symbolize Nestor and
Cristina Kirchner. In fact, flooding throughout the city
largely dominated the news, overshadowing Kirchner's speech,
which was seen among political analysts as part of his
presidential campaign.


9. (C) COMMENT. Beyond the two-plus hour litany of
accomplishments, Kirchner's speech was little more than a a
re-packaging of stump material speeches, facts of Argentina's
recovery, and attack lines used on many previous occasions,
with the added theater of the opening of Congress. Kirchner
made the speech appear more provocative because it was where
he departed from his prepared text that he was most combative
and cuttingly critical. Ultimately, Kirchner's speech lost
press headlines to the flood resulting from yesterday's
deluge, the end of summer season and the return to work and
school. But it appears designed as the way to lay out his
record and themes for the campaign season ahead leading to
October presidential elections. The next big event would
appear to be the purported March 9 visit of Hugo Chavez,
where Kirchner will try to highlight that his "independence"
is bringing substantial economic benefits home for Argentina.
END COMMENT
WAYNE