MEDIA REACTION; ARGENTINE NEW ADMINISTRATION; IRAN;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002318 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; ARGENTINE NEW ADMINISTRATION; IRAN; COLOMBIA; 12/10/07 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend international stories include US expectations over Argentina's new administration; the National Intelligence Estimate pointing out that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003; and Colombian President Uribe's decision to grant a "meeting zone" with the FARC. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS - "Inflation and energy - Wall Street and its doubts about the new (Argentine) Government" Ana Baron, leading "Clarin's" Washington-based correspondent, writes (12/10) "When taking office, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will inherit the great economic recovery her husband obtained following the profound meltdown the country went through. However, there is much uncertainty in Wall Street about what could happen from now on. The center of mistrust is the problem of INDEC. "Cristina is the first one in acknowledge that if Argentina wants to achieve sustainable economic growth, it will have to get more investment, but will she take the necessary steps to woo investors? "Wall Street and international investors with interests in Argentina are closely following Argentina's attempts to start negotiations over its Paris Club debt without an IMF agreement. They consider it crucial for Argentina to start re-inserting itself in international markets. This will require by necessity a negotiation with holdout bondholders. However, the most important concerns for them are short-term issues, such as inflation and INDEC." - "Washington expects Cristina to promote the country's opening to the world" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," comments (12/10) "The US expects and wishes changes when Cristina Fernandez takes over, although it does not expect too many changes compared to the latest four and a half years during which Nestor Kirchner led the country. It is not by chance that they have been husband and wife and political partners for more than 30 years. Official and Democratic sources consulted buy 'La Nacion' agree that we will have to wait and see. "The US-Argentine bilateral relationship has had ups and downs since 2003, and even though Buenos Aires sources say that the ex senator will encourage a more internationalist and open view, Washington prefers to test it in practice. "A member of the Bush administration told 'La Nacion': 'With Argentina one should always make progress step by step. We were 'sold' a more open image of Argentina to the world and particularly towards the US, but we will have to wait. We do not know how much the (bilateral) relationship will change under the Cristina administration. "Within the USG, there are different views on Argentina. US Ambassador to Argentina Earl Anthony Wayne represents the group that highlights the progress made by the Kirchners on poverty alleviation and unemployment reduction and the years of steady growth. "... The US Treasury staff shows a more reticent posture, just like the National Security Council and several lawmakers from both political parties. They consider that Argentina should put its economy on a sound track and solve its foreign troubles (Paris Club debt and holdouts) if it wants to capture new investment and foreign financing." - "Iran - erroneous perceptions of the enemy" Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," writes (12/08) "16 US intelligence agencies seem to be determined to reverse their own reputation of hurried and political manipulation of sensitive peace- and war-related issues. At least, this seems to be the primary intention of the latest National Intelligence Assessment joint report, which informs that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. "Any action in this direction deserves to be welcomed because much depends on these institutions in terms of contributing to the decision-making process of the world military hegemonic power to preserve international peace. There is too much evidence about the clumsiness and hurriedness that served to trigger disasters such as the invasion of Iraq, which could have been avoided through politics and diplomacy... "Interestingly enough, we should note two pieces of information. First, that Iran halted its nuclear program the same year the US-UK led coalition entered Iraq... We should bear in mind a warning from Ray Takeyh (a Yale academic expert in the region),who wrote an extremely interesting book called 'Hidden Iran - Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic', in which he explains that 'getting the enemy wrong' lies at the root of the arm-wrestling between the West and Iran. Takeyh calls for a new, fresh and impartial assessment of the Iranian phenomenon to find new formulae for solutions. "The second piece of information we should not overlook is that Bush decided to rouse the specter of a new 'Third World War' last October, only two months after the intelligence agency directors presented the content of the new NIE report. This confirms that the use of intelligence produced by his administration depends on whether or not the assessment supports his positions. Otherwise, it is of no use. "What does this mean? In principle, that this new report is not issued to change Washington's official aggressive posture on Iran. And also that Bush has found it increasingly difficult to make peace- and war-related decisions after the Iraqi fiasco... We should also bear in mind that those who are part of the US political game are generating conditions to reduce the Republican's remaining power." - "The image that engendered the change" Leandro Uria, international columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (12/10) "Colombian President Alvaro Uribe's announcement that he would set up a 'meeting zone' where the FARC could make a humanitarian exchange seems inconsistent with his inflexible image toward guerrillas... "How can one explain such a change? First and foremost, due to the tremendous international pressure put on Uribe after the video with Colombian-French citizen Ingrid Betancourt was made public... "... In the event Uribe, who no longer has a mediator, did not make a conclusive gesture to approach the guerrillas, he ran the risk of missing the best opportunity for a humanitarian exchange he has had in recent years. And, based on what everyone could see from the image of the kidnapped Betancourt, the risk seems to be high... "... According to some rumors these days, Uribe's reticence about the demilitarized zone was related more to the protection of his political support... rather than to a real military risk. "As a matter of fact, Uribe is now offering to set up a much smaller area than in 1998, which he can easily recover if needed. Everything points towards a favorable time for successful negotiations. The cost of a failure would be hard to take for both parties in the conflict." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE