IRAQ; US TRADE AGENDA; DEATH PENALTY; DEMOCRATS TAKING

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000022 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: IRAQ; US TRADE AGENDA; DEATH PENALTY; DEMOCRATS TAKING CONTROL OF CAPITOL HILL; LULA'S SECOND TERM IN OFFICE; LULA-CHAVEZ; ETA; 01/08/07 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend stories include US President Bush's announced plan to send additional troops to Iraq; US House of Representatives leader Nancy Pelosi's statements that Democrats could deny US President George W. Bush the money should he call for additional troops; the implications of Democrats taking control of Capitol Hill; the death penalty around the world; expectations about Lula's second term in office and his ties with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez; and the latest ETA attack on the Barajas Airport. ¶2. OPINION PIECES - "Vicious cycle" Telma Luzzani, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (01/07) "Let's just put aside for a moment oil interests and the big fortunes made by companies such as US Halliburton in Iraq. Let's recall what the White House official purpose was... in order to justify the military invasion before US legislators and citizens. "There were talks of WMD (which did not exist after all) and of bringing democracy to Iraq. After months in which the only two things that increased were inter-religious violence and lawlessness, a solution typical of dictatorships has now been reached. It is a repressive plan that will be led by the Iraqi military and in which political forces have clearly been ruled out." - "In spite of pressures, Bush will send additional troops to the (Persian) Gulf" Leonardo Mindez, on special assignment in Washington for leading "Clarin," comments (01/07) "US President George W. Bush will announce that he is planning to send 20 thousand additional US troops to Iraq and that there will be employment plans for Iraqi insurgents. His plan has long been promoted as a 'new step forward in Iraq,' but it seems just like another item of the same prescription with which he continues to 'plunge' into a war that he believed he was going to win more than three years ago. "The opposition has already raised an outcry. Harry Reid, the new US Senate Majority Leader, said that 'based on the counsel of military leaders, we believe this tactic to be a serious mistake.' Together with the Leader of the Lower House, Nancy Pelosi, Reid has already sent a letter to Bush making it clear that they are not only against sending more troops but also that 'the time has come to put an end to the war.' They suggest a four-to-six-month period to start a gradual withdrawal. "In his Saturday radio message, US President Bush talked about the different domestic policies in which he is willing to seek consensus with Democrats..., but he made no mention of a possible agreement on Iraq." - "A return without glory?" Ricardo Kirschbaum, general editor of leading "Clarin," writes (01/07) "Having hanged Saddam Hussein (who also took to his grave some special deals he had reached with the US and the West at key moments like the war with Iran) has not stopped the US debate on the future of its troops in Iraq. The Bush administration faces increasing difficulties as its power decreases in the aftermath of the Republican defeat in legislative elections... "If the main lines of discussion are reviewed, what is under debate is no longer victory, which Bush had taken for granted in early 2005, but the best way to get out of the hellish trap in which US troops are bogged down." - "Middle East, nervous" Centrist newspaper "Perfil" (12/07) carries an opinion piece by Fernando A. Iglesias, author of Globalizing Democracy, who states "Among its many unsuccessful misfortunes, the disaster in Iraq will be the Bush administration's mark in history. Almost 100 billion dollars were spent in 2006 only to bring about a number of casualties that is higher than that of the September 11 attacks. Lastly, the disasters of an increasingly unpopular war ended up plunging Republicans into disrepute, leading to their greatest election disaster in decades. "Far from having US troops hailed in an Iraq restored by democracy, the invasion has demonstrated the 'zombie' consequences of every model of nationalist intervention in a global world. Carried out with the outright purpose of improving US national security, the invasion will end up failing to dismantle terrorist networks or to find WMD amid increasing likelihood that Iranians develop a nuclear device and mounting anti-US feeling that fuels, in turn, global terrorism." - "Iraq - the tightening belt choking the big superpower" Marcelo Cantelmi, international editor of leading "Clarin," states (01/06) "... It is important to say that the Iraq issue is not an unjustified and clumsily led war, sparking a major disaster..., but essentially a belt that is gradually choking the only world superpower, a hegemonic country whose evolution and disturbances affect the all humanity, even those countries located in the 'suburbs.' "... The new direction in Capitol Hill will determine up to what point 'the knife will be pushed,' in a scenario in which a future impeachment trial not only against Bush but his most conspicuous ally, VP Dick Cheney, is far from being dismissed. "... The new US Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid, said that the first mission of Democrats in Capitol Hill will be reinvigorating Congress to investigate Iraq - he said 'We will look into how intelligence was manipulated to lead us to war,' as if everything had gone too far. "... It is the new Congress, now in the hands of the opposition, the one that can collect evidence. Will they do it? Given the prevailing vanity fair and political confrontation in Washington, it is hard to guess there will be clemency." - "A petition from other rebels" Gustavo Sierra, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (01/07) "US President George W. Bush is ready to send another 20 or 30,000 US troops to Iraq now that there is increasing protest among US military against this war. Some 1,000 US military will submit a petition to Congress to put an end to the constant re-sending of US troops and furthermore to proceed to the withdrawal of US troops. "... US President Bush's decision to appoint 'hawk' John Negroponte as Assistant Secretary of State can only be interpreted as a sign of displacement or removal of the so far administration's 'iron lady' Whereas, the military petition appears to be a clear-cut example of resistance." - "Bush4s trade agenda at risk as Democrats take over" Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald's" "World Trade" supplement (01/08) reports "The Democratic takeover of Congress on Thursday is likely to mean President George W. Bush will lose 'fast track' trade negotiating authority and could scuttle efforts to secure free trade deals with Peru, Colombia and other countries, analysts said. "Unless there is an unexpected breakthrough in the troubled Doha Round of world trade talks, trade promotion authority will probably expire in June, analysts said." - "Hangman blues" Santiago O'Donnell, international columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," states (01/07) "This is not a good time for supporters of the death penalty. The grotesque images of Saddam being hanged while taunted by his executioners were seen all around the world through You Tube and made George W. Bush blush and say that he had wished 'a more dignified execution.' However, this is not all. In Italy a 73-year-old Euro-legislator, Marco Panella, ended up in hospital after nine days on hunger strike to protest against death penalty. Italy has just submitted a request to the UN for a universal moratorium on executions. The UN Human Rights High Commissioner claimed that executions be stopped in Iraq while rumblings are on the mount. The number of countries with no death penalty increased from 16 in 1977 to 87 nowadays. Many more countries have declared moratorium or maintain the death penalty only to impose it in very rare cases such as treason in times of war; reason why they have not administered it for many decades. "And the US is precisely the country in which the pro-abolishment movement has gained most of its ground; something which speaks of the force of the phenomenon - it happens in spite of the consequences of the September 11 (attacks),in spite of Bush and in spite of being the only country of the world in which the grotesque lynching of the 'butcher of Baghdad' was more celebrated than criticized, with the possible exception of Iraq." "In fact, the US is the only Western country that kills convicts for having committed regular crimes. - "Lula's second term in office" Luis Esnal, Brazil-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/08) "... The relationship of power between Lula and Chavez during the next four years will be the cornerstone of regional geopolitics, in which Argentina might be called to slant the scale "It's not a matter of judging whether Chavez's requests on the need for a greater integration are realistic or not... "This is not under debate. The point is that Chavez is attempting to promote some kind of integration based on ideological coincidence aimed at confronting Latin America, or more specifically South America, with the US. "... What Chavez did not get right is that Lula is not willing to commit to an integration based on a circumstantial coincidence of leftist or center-to-left governments in the hemisphere. First of all, let's take the example of the Bachelet and Morales administrations - similarities between Michele Bachelet's center-to-left government and the Morales administration are but a few. Secondly, simply because the Brazilian citizen avoids ideology-driven debates just like the devil escapes the cross." ¶3. EDITORIALS - "The execution of Saddam Hussein" An editorial in leading "Clarin" reads (01/08) "the end of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein will hardly go down in history as an act of justice or as an international example of fostering democracy and punishment on those who were guilty for serious human rights violations. "... Saddam's case can hardly be compared with the Nuremberg trial for several reasons, but the main one is the negative evolution of the war in Iraq, whose main responsibility lies on those who started it - i.e., the US. "Therefore, far from being a sovereign expression of Iraqi leaders, the decision to execute Hussein appears as another outcome of the foreign occupation of Iraq. "Finally, the lawfulness of the entire lawsuit against Saddam Hussein, as well as his execution, has been questioned by representatives of international institutions and criticized all over the world." - "A Democratic Capitol Hill" Conservative "La Prensa" editorializes (01/08) "A new 'iron lady' is looming on the horizon. For the first time in history, a woman has taken over as leader of the US House of Representatives ... Nancy Pelosi voices the irritation of the US people for two national shameful issues - the situation in Iraq and the private and corruption scandals that have tarnished prominent personalities of the G.O.P... "... Does this mean that the days of the US occupation in Iraq are counted? As long as George W. Bush is the acting US President, it seems to be unlikely - furthermore, on Wednesday, he is expected to announce that the US will send 30,000 additional soldiers to the most disturbed Arab country. However, if the situation is not put on a safe track in the next two years, pressures on the next head of the White House to order a withdrawal (which will be as hasty and unworthy as that of Vietnam) will be unbearable. "On the economic front, the 110th US legislature is expected to restore the most downright protectionism. Everything seems to indicate that the US Congress will not renew the fast track authority to the Executive Branch, which implies that any trade deal reached by the US in the future will have to go through the exhausting point-by-point review of Capitol Hill. The Kirchners and Lulas may stay calm - the FTAA is far than ever." - "ETA against a peace dialogue" Leading "Clarin" editorializes (01/06) "With the latest criminal attack on Barajas airport on the eve of the New Year, ETA has buried expectations about the peace process fostered by the Rodriguez Zapatero administration. "In this way, it has demonstrated its lack of interest in serious negotiations over matters of national sovereignties and autonomies in Spain and its inability to leave aside its criminal and violent nature. "... In this way, ETA's persistent violence is a hard- to-eradicate-and-overcome anachronism. Rather than recalling unsolved national claims, it directly attacks a democratic society, which (including most of Basque people) rejects terrorism and violence as political instruments." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE