ARGENTINA: WIDE MARGIN PREDICTED FOR FIRST LADY'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 002086

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: WIDE MARGIN PREDICTED FOR FIRST LADY'S
PRESIDENTIAL WIN

REF: BUENOS AIRES 02015

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: With less than one week before the October
28 presidential elections in Argentina, First Lady Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) has a commanding lead, according
to ten local polls published on October 21. Senator Kirchner
seems poised to win by a large margin over the range of
opposition candidates, with analysts predicting a first round
win. Center-left candidate Elisa Carrio is in second place,
followed by former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna. In what
is likely to be the last round of published polls before the
election, all ten polls indicated that the undecided vote has
dropped from above 20% to between 10% to 15%. The opposition
appears to be the main beneficiary of this drop, but not
enough to change the predictions of the outcomes on election
day. END SUMMARY.

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Polls Indicate First Round Win for Kirchner
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2. (SBU) With less than one week before the October 28
presidential elections in Argentina, First Lady Cristina
Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK) remains the front-runner,
according to ten independent polls published on October 21.
In the ten polls published October 21, an average of 42.7% of
those surveyed said they would vote for CFK. Based on these
polls, CFK is currently expected to win on Sunday with over
40% and a margin of about 20 percentage points over the
second place candidate. (By Argentine law, a candidate may
win in the first round with 45% of the votes, or 40% with a
margin of at least 10 percentage points over the next
candidate. If neither of these conditions is met, a run-off
would be held on November 25.) Of the 13 other presidential
candidates, CFK's closest competitor is center-left candidate
Elisa Carrio, who averages about 16.5% in the ten independent
polls. In third place is former Economy Minister Roberto
Lavagna with an average of 12.1%, and in fourth place is San
Luis Governor and dissident Peronist candidate Alberto
Rodriguez Saa with an average of 6.3%. Trailing behind them
are center-right candidates Ricardo Lopez Murphy and Neuquen
Governor Jorge Sobisch, with the rest of the pack showing
negligible support.


3. (SBU) CFK seems to be strongest outside of major cities,
including in the poorer suburbs of Buenos Aires. She is most
popular among young voters (between 18 and 25 years old),
party loyalists, and voters with only an elementary school
education. Polling firm Poliarquia estimates that only 26.1%
of university educated voters support CFK. Carrio's base is
said to be among women and university-educated voters. CFK's
numbers in major urban centers suggest that she does not have
the support of the urban middle class. According to
Poliarquia, Senator Kirchner and Carrio register a technical
tie in the capital city of Buenos Aires, with 19.7% for the
Senator and 18.9% for Carrio. The Open Interamerican
University's (Universidad Abierta Interamericana) polls show
similar results in Cordoba (21.2 for Kirchner, 14.6 for
Carrio, and 23.5 for Lavagna) and Rosario (28.2 for Kirchner
and 32 for Carrio).

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Undecided Leaning Toward Opposition
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4. (SBU) In what is likely to be the last round of
published polls before the election, all ten polls indicated
that the undecided vote has dropped from above 20% to between
10 to 15%. According to Poliarquia, only 1.1% of this drop
has translated into a gain for CFK, while an 8.3% gain was
shared among the main opposition candidates. Carrio's
numbers rose 2.8 percentage points, Lavagna's 2.9, and
Rodriguez Saa's 2.2. Also according to Poliarquia, 80% of
Senator Kirchner's voters are firm in their support, while
Carrio's are 56.7% committed, Rodriguez Saa's are 66.9%
committed, and Lavagna's are 53.1% committed. The polls
indicate that, one week before the election, there is still a
significant number of undecided voters (anywhere from 8% to
17.3%).

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Comment
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5. (C) Opposition candidates have gained slightly from the
drop in undecided votes indicated in the latest poll results,
but not enough to change the expected outcome on October 28.
The polls are virtually unanimous in projecting a first-round
victory for CFK and the rank order of the "major" candidates
behind her: Carrio, Lavagna, Rodriguez Saa, and Lopez
Murphy, followed by the nine others. Local pollsters here
are not expecting any surprises on election day, and their
unanimity on the likely outcome engenders confidence in their
predictions.
WAYNE