ARGENTINA: GOA PR OFFENSIVE ON INFATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 002021 SIPDIS SIPDIS LABOR FOR BLS ELIZABETH TAYLOR E FOR THOMAS PIERCE, NSC FOR D PRICE PASS FED BOARD OF GOVERNORS FOR PATRICE ROBITAILLE EX-IM BANK FOR MICHELE WILKINS OPIC FOR GEORGE SCHULTZ AND RUTH ANN NICASTRI USDOC FOR ALEXANDER PEACHER AND JOHN ANDERSEN TREASURY FOR LTRAN USCINCSO FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 TAGS: ECON EINV AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: GOA PR OFFENSIVE ON INFATION REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 1545 ¶B. BUENOS AIRES 247 Classified By: Ambassador E.A. Wayne. Reasons 1.5 (b,d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Inflation has become a polarizing campaign issue in the Argentine presidential campaign, with controversy surrounding its real rate of increase, underlying causes, and the methodologies used by the GOA. Many Argentine economists have developed their own "true" inflation indicators and, in the run-up to October 28 elections, opposition candidates are raising the political temperature with daily protests of GoA interference. The attacks seem to have flustered the government, despite the seemingly unassailable lead held by official candidate Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (CFK). Its responses have been all over the map. In the last few days, President Kirchner defended official inflation statistics as "perfect;" CFK and other GOA officials admitted the existence of inflation but characterized it as a tolerable by-product of Argentina's rapid growth; and the GOA unilaterally released a statement (with no factual basis of which we are aware) that the GoA will sign a technical cooperation agreement on inflation calculation methodologies with the USG. Most analysts here agree it would be too costly, politically and legally, for the GoA to stop intervening in inflation calculations all at once given the magnitude of the gap between published and underlying Argentine inflation. It is likely there will be a new measurement methodology introduced after elections, followed by a gradual re-alignment of official Argentine inflation calculations with international norms. End Summary. -------------- GoA Reports September CPI Low at 0.8% -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On October 4, 20 days prior to elections, Argentina's official statistical agency, INDEC, reported September inflation at 0.8% month-on-month and 8.6% year)on-year, down from the 8.7% annual rate recorded in August. Independent analysts, however, believe actual September inflation was in the 1.2 ) 1.7% range, with annual inflation in the 15-20% range and accelerating. They use a variety of information sources to calculate "real" inflation numbers, including VAT collections, implicit prices in supermarket sales, Mendoza province's CPI (which had tracked national CPI closely until January 2007, when the GoA allegedly began manipulating price inputs),and commentary from INDEC employees (many of whom continue to carry out periodic work actions in protest of what they say is GoA interference). Recent media headlines have focused on data manipulation in the food sector, where many analysts charge that the GoA has egregiously mispriced a number of products. Opposition candidates, especially former Economy Minister Lavagna, have made inflation a central theme of their comments, charging the Kirchner administration with grossly underestimating inflation and detailing the ill effects as they see them. ¶3. (SBU) At an October 5 ceremony celebrating Argentina's full membership in the CAF regional development bank, President Kirchner called INDEC statistics "perfect, perfectly supervised and audited" and labeled private sector economists who have developed independent indices as those responsible for Argentina's previous bouts of hyperinflation. He called these independent indices "opposition indices" that were "invented" for wholly politically ends. "They call them private consultants," Kirchner said, "but the majority were those responsible for Argentina's (prior) crises and the institutional hollowing out of the 1990s. Argentines should take great care with these private consultants. They are all paid by sectors that have little to do with Argentina." ¶4. (SBU) Among the economists publishing independent inflation indices Kirchner was referring to is Roberto Dvoskin, a professor at San Martin University who had served as Undersecretary of Commerce in the Alfonsin administration; Rogelio Frigerio, an Economy Ministry official in the second Menem Administration; and Orlando Ferreres, Deputy Economy Minister in the first Menem administration. -------------- Copying the U.S. CPI Model? -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In late September and early October, press reported that the inflation issue was causing tension in the Kirchner presidential team. Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner's (CFK's) Vice Presidential candidate, Governor of Mendoza (and Radical Party cross-over) Julio Cobos, was accused by Kirchner administration insiders of disloyalty when he and his provincial officials complained of federal government efforts to manipulate Mendoza province inflation by cutting in half the 3% increase they reported to INDEC. Mendoza is Argentina's fourth largest province. The growth of Mendoza's inflation index at roughly double official federal levels has been repeatedly highlighted by opposition politicians. ¶6. (SBU) On October 6, Cobos was chosen to announce that Argentina would adopt the U.S. CPI index methodology in November, following elections. He called the U.S. system a better, more accurate measure of consumer inflation than INDEC's methodology because the U.S. system more readily incorporates the prices of substitute goods that consumers would buy in response to price increases in similar products. ¶7. (SBU) Separately, senior INDEC officials, including current Director Ana Maria Edwin, and the head of INDEC's CPI unit, Beatriz Paglieri, have made plans to visit the Bureau of Labor Statistics in Washington on October 25, three days before national elections, for technical discussions. In local press reporting and in conversations with local private economists, both are considered controversial political appointees to INDEC who have strong ties to price control and inflation czar Internal Commerce Secretary Moreno. On October 9, INDEC released a statement -- with no prior consultation with the Bureau of Labor Statistics or this Mission -- that INDEC would sign a technical cooperation agreement with USG counterpart agencies. We have prepared press guidance to say that we are only aware of plans for technical discussions. -------------- Inflationary Expectations Climb -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Growing public concern about prices is registering in a number of polls. According to a Mora y Araujo poll, for example, inflation ranked fourth in August on a list of 13 major problems, up from eleventh in December 2006. A similar survey from the prestigious Argentine Business Development Institute (IDEA) reports that 90% of business managers surveyed consider inflation to be the single most important issue to be confronted by the incoming administration. More ominously for a country that has experienced periodic bouts of hyperinflation in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s, a di Tella University consumer poll shows expected inflation for the 12 months to September 2008 at 23.2%, almost double the 13.5% recorded in January 2007. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The Kirchner administration appears to have backed itself into a corner, with GoA credibility on inflation in tatters and growing inflationary expectations threatening to affect election outcomes. The rushed, unilateral GoA announcement that it will copy U.S. CPI methodologies and sign technical agreements with U.S. counterpart agencies is a transparent ploy to regain the high ground. Yet the gap between published and underlying Argentine inflation is already so large that most analysts here agree it would be too costly, politically and legally, for the GoA to stop intervening in inflation calculations all at once. It is likely there will be a new measurement methodology introduced after elections, followed by a gradual re-alignment of official Argentine inflation calculations with international norms. The U.S. should not allow itself to get caught up in the intense pre-election debate. There is, however, potential value in technical exchanges which can help the GoA restore legitimacy to its inflation figures if there is a serious interest in doing so. WAYNE