ARGENTINA: ELECTIONS 2007 WEEKLY ROUNDUP OCTOBER

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001994

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: ELECTIONS 2007 WEEKLY ROUNDUP OCTOBER
1-5

REF: A. BUENOS AIRES 01952

B. BUENOS AIRES 01931

C. BUENOS AIRES 01351

D. BUENOS AIRES 00126

Classified By: AMBASSADOR E. ANTHONY WAYNE FOR REASONS 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The latest polls confirm that Senator and
Victory Front (FPV) presidential candidate Cristina Kirchner
maintains a healthy lead over her closest challengers.
Senator Kirchner's campaign continues to focus on foreign
policy and travel, while downplaying domestic issues. The
opposition presidential candidates have continued to
broadcast their messages, but they are finding it hard to
conduct a real campaign against the frontrunner, who remains
above the fray. END SUMMARY.

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For Whom the Polls Toll
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2. (U) A round of polls published in local press September
30 to October 1 confirm that Senator and Victory Front (FPV)
presidential candidate Cristina Kirchner maintains a
substantial lead over her closest challengers. The
pro-Kirchner daily Pagina 12 published results from five
polling firms contracted by the government. The average of
the five polls show Cristina Kirchner receiving 46 percent of
the presidential vote, followed by Elsa Carrio with 13
percent, Roberto Lavagna with 11 percent, and Ricardo Lopez
Murphy, Jorge Sobisch and Alejandro Rodriguez Saa each with
less than five percent. The same polls contrasted provincial
voting preference with those of Buenos Aires city. Kirchner
garnered 64 percent, Carrio 11 percent, and Lavagna 5.5
percent in Santa Fe. In Buenos Aires Kirchner registered 35
percent, Carrio 18 percent, and Lavagna 14.5 percent support
from potential voters.


3. (U) La Nacion newspaper published on October 1 the latest
Poliarquia poll, which cited much lower numbers for each
candidate and a relatively high rate of undecided (22.7).
The poll indicates that an additional 28 percent may yet
change their vote. Of undecided voters, 36 percent have not
thought about the elections, 16 percent were leaning toward
Cristina Kirchner, 10.5 percent were between Cristina and
another candidate, and 12 percent would definitely not vote
for Cristina. Former Economy Minister and presidential
candidate Roberto Lavagna attacked the polls as being "paid
for and manipulated by the government," adding that the
government is manipulating the data to show Carrio ahead of
him because, he said, the Kirchners fear a runoff against
him.


4. (SBU) Elisa Carrio, who is expected to finish second in
October and polling at approximately 12 percent on average,
remains focused on forcing a runoff with front-runner Senator
Kirchner. Carrio's campaign has recently focused on
demonstrating that she is ready and competent to serve as
president. Carrio announced her political platform on
September 27, which focus on power sharing, term limits,
ethics, social justice, and strengthening of government
institutions. She openly challenged President Kirchner to
confront Argentina,s inflation problem.


5. (SBU) Roberto Lavagna, polling around eight percent in
general, is also postulating that he will force a runoff with
Senator Kirchner. His campaign motto of "How else can I help
you?" is focused on reminding voters that as economy minister
during the period after the devaluation crisis he was the key
architect of Argentina,s economic recovery. His campaign
pillars include: stabilizing the economy and fighting
inflation, fighting poverty, and strengthening government
institutions.


6. (SBU) San Luis Governor and Peronist alternative
candidate Rodriguez Saa, with about five percent support,
claims that he would win the presidency easily if he could
show Argentines first-hand how his leadership has benefited
San Luis province. Neuquen Governor and center-right
candidate Jorge Sobisch and center-right candidate Ricardo

Lopez Murphy, each projected to receive less than 5% of the
total vote on October 28, round out the presidential
candidates included in all the latest polls.

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Cristina's Non-Campaign
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7. (C) Coming off their September 23-29 trip to New York,
the Kirchners reportedly plan to cover nearly 7,500 miles the
week of October 1 through trips to various Argentine
provinces and meetings with Brazilian President Lula Ignacio
Da Silva. Senator Kirchner's foreign-policy based campaign
has kept the presidential campaign field focused on foreign
issues and has created a difficult atmosphere in which the
opposition candidates must try to rally voter attention.
Esteban Bullrich, vice presidential running-mate of
center-right leader Ricardo Lopez Murphy, told us that it is
impossible to generate robust debates or attract media
attention when the front-runner (Kirchner) is essentially not
campaigning domestically.

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Skanska Update
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8. (C) Federal Judge Guillermo Montenegro, in charge of the
criminal investigation of alleged bribes in the Skanska case
(REF C),announced his resignation September 28 to become the
next Minister of Security in the city of Buenos Aires as part
of Mayor-Elect Mauricio Macri's team. Montenegro will also
bring three key criminal prosecutors with him to his new
position. The case's main prosecutor, Carlos Stornelli, is
negotiating his eventual move to Buenos Aires province, where
gubernatorial candidate and Vice President Daniel Scioli
plans to make him Minister of Security. According to sources
close to Scioli, Stornelli would prefer to request a leave of
absence from his post as prosecutor, but Scioli is pushing
for Stornelli to resign his current position as a sign of his
commitment to an eventual Scioli administration in the
province. Montenegro and Stornelli's departures are expected
to severely delay or halt altogether the criminal
investigation into the Skanska case, not to mention the
trials of former Kirchner administration officials implicated
in the case, Fulvio Madaro and Nestor Ulloa. However, the
investigation for tax evasion continues under a separate
judge.

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Paper-Mill Dispute Resurges
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9. (SBU) Environmental protestors (REF D) renewed road
closures and stepped up protests in response to President
Nestor Kirchner being quoted in the press recognzing in New
York on September 27 that the controversial Finnish paper
pulp plant in Uruguay can no longer be moved. The
"asambleistas," as they are known locally, have been
protesting and cutting routes into Uruguay regularly over the
potentially damaging environmental effects of construction of
a paper pulp plant on the shores of the Uruguay river that
borders both countries. Several rounds of negotiations, some
facilitated by Spanish King Juan Carlos I, have failed to
resolve the dispute. Meetings on September 29 in New York
between Argentine and Uruguayan officials again were unable
to produce an agreement on how to appease the protesters
while allowing the plant to operate. The protesters labeled
President Kirchner a "traitor" for his reported public
statements while in New York and vowed to continue cutting
roads and bridges, and to increase their protests in the
province of Entre Rios and in Buenos Aires before the
presidential elections.


10. (SBU) President Kirchner denied on October 1 that
Argentina accepts the paper plant's operations on the Uruguay
River and expressed surprise that the comment ("the mill is
there and nothing can be done about it") was attributed to
him, calling the statement "absurd." Kirchner further
explained that the Argentine government will press its case
against the plant's location in Uruguay next year at the
Hague. Local analysts speculate that Kirchner has been
postponing a resolution with Uruguay over the paper plant
until after the October elections to minimize the political
costs to his wife's campaign.

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Chaco and Cordoba
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11. (U) In Chaco province, FPV candidate Senator Jorge
Capitanich was certified on October 3 as the winner of the
September 16 gubernatorial elections after the official
recount revealed his lead over Radical candidate Angel Rozas
to be over 4,000 votes. Rozas conceded defeat to Capitanich
on October 1 and admitted that, with more than 90 percent of
the ballots counted, the gap between the two candidates was
insurmountable.


12. (U) The controversial vote recount in the contested
Cordoba province governor race faced renewed opposition from
nominal second-place finisher FPV candidate Luis Juez, who
continues to push for a manual recount. The Superior Court
of Cordoba on October 3 rejected Juez's petition to annul 600
ballot boxes and to call for new elections. Juez
subsequently ordered his representatives to abandon their
positions supervising the recount, saying "we are not going
to validate this plunder with our presence nor our civic
behavior; we cannot permit the staining, the destruction, the
censuring, (or) the adultering (of this election)." The
recount is now more than 80% complete, and electoral
authorities say they will continue the recount without Juez's
observers. Juez said that he plans to take his case to the
Supreme Court, which he hopes will invalidate the 6,152
ballot boxes and mandate a new election. Current Vice
Governor Juan Schiaretti on September 3 proclaimed himself
the winner of the September 2 gubernatorial elections, in
which he led Juez by 17,000 votes. Alejandro Mosquera of
Schiaretti's camp said to La Nacion on October 3, "Juez knows
he lost, that is why he is doing this, his observers have
been working in the recount for a month. He was not able to
prove that any fraud was committed."
WAYNE