ARGENTINA: ELECTIONS 2007 WEEKLY ROUNDUP:

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001893

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR
SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: ELECTIONS 2007 WEEKLY ROUNDUP:
SEPTEMBER 17-21

REF: BUENOS AIRES 01862

Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b)
and (d).


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Argentine opposition candidates are
publicly calling on the GOA to invite the OAS to send
international observers for the October 28 elections. The
opposition's demand is not resonating with the Argentine
media or public, and it appears unlikely the GOA will ask for
international observers. Kirchneristas celebrated the
landslide reelection of Governor Mario Das Neves in Chubut
province and the surprise win, albeit not yet certified, of
Victory Front (FPV) candidate Jorge Capitanich for governor
in Chaco. The second-place finisher in the Cordoba
governor's race continues to demand a vote-by-vote recount on
the grounds of fraud in that province's September 2 election.
The revision of the vote tallies is still underway, and
Cordoba's Superior Court ruled on September 18 that a manual
recount was neither necessary nor legal in this case.
Presidential candidate Elisa Carrio announced her certainty
that she will force FPV candidate Cristina Fernandez de
Kirchner into a run-off on October 28, however, but local
polls do not support her belief. After its defeat in Chubut
and possibly Chaco, the Radical party (UCR) is struggling to
maintain national relevance in Argentine politics. The
Radicals are the main bastion of support for presidential
candidate and former Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna. END
SUMMARY.

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Calls for International Observers
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2. (SBU) In response to the alleged fraud in Cordoba's
provincial elections (and in Chaco, according to Carrio),
center-left leader and presidential candidate Elisa Carrio
has called for international observers to monitor the October
28 presidential elections. Carrio has raised the issue on
her September 18-21 trip to Washington DC, where she met with
Department of State and OAS officials. OAS director of
elections monitoring Pablo Gutierrez reportedly told Carrio
that it is possible to send the estimated 1200 observers
necessary to monitor the October 28 elections, but that the
request must come from the GOA. Carrio apparently said that
the National Elections Board was meeting on the issue and
that she was confident they would resolve to request
observers. The National Elections Board was meeting on
September 20 and 21st to discuss the need to request
observers, but indications are that the Board is resisting
calling for monitors. Press reports indicate that judicial
elections authorities feel they can handle the monitoring
without outside help.


3. (SBU) Other opposition figures have also expressed
concern over potential electoral fraud in Cordoba and Chaco.
Former Kirchnerista Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna
criticized the widely varying polls published prior to both
the Cordoba and Chaco elections that predicted wide margins
between candidates. He has also called for international
observers to monitor the presidential elections and has said
he is preparing a formal request to present to the national
elections authorities. Center-right leader Ricardo Lopez
Murphy said of the alleged fraud, "there is a risk that what
happened in Cordoba could happen in the October presidential
elections." Governor of San Luis and presidential candidate
Alberto Rodriguez Saa said he feels his party, Frejuli, must
"take all precautions" to avoid the possibility of fraud in
the presidential elections, despite his confidence that his
party's observers "will not allow cheating" at voting
stations. (Each party is responsible for providing its own
elections observers for each voting station. These observers
must verify that each vote cast for their party is counted
correctly. Most of the opposition parties do not have enough
followers to be able to post an official observer at each
voting location nationwide, and therefore are concerned that
their votes will be under-counted.) The Buenos Aires city
Elections Board will hold a meeting on October 2 to analyze
requesting observers. Presidential candidates Rodriguez Saa,
Carrio, Lavagna, Jorge Sobisch (current governor of Neuquen),
Lopez Murphy, and Lavagna have already confirmed their
attendance.

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Cordoba and Chaco: Still Not Finalized
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4. (SBU) Second-place finisher in Cordoba, Luis Juez, is
still demanding a vote-by-vote recount on the grounds of
fraud in that province's September 2 election. His lawyers
appealed to the Cordoba Superior Court for judicial
intervention, but the court ruled on September 18 that a
manual recount was neither necessary nor legal in this case.
The court mandated that the review of the voting-station
tallies that began on September 6 continue. The court noted
that manual recounts can be ordered by the elections
observers at each voting station where they detect fraud or
irregularities. (Juez's camp reportedly had observers
present at each voting station, but they did not signal any
irregularities or fraud at the time of vote tallying.)
Despite the ruling, Juez held a march in the provincial
capital on September 20 to demand a recount. Nominal winner
Juan Schiaretti's camp held counter-marches in the capital
and other provincial towns.


5. (SBU) In Chaco, UCR candidate and second-place finisher
in the September 16 gubernatorial race Angel Rozas has
announced he will not ask the courts to mandate a manual
recount. According to the preliminary review of the voting
station tallies, Rozas lost to FPV candidate Senator Jorge
Capitanich by 0.39%. Rozas' camp has recognized that there
were no complaints of irregularities nor manipulation by the
electoral officials or the Correo Argentino, which totals the
voting station tallies. Rozas said that according to
(unspecified) UCR data, he should be declared the eventual
winner by 2,700 votes after the final revision of the voting
station tallies. He urged the public not to worry saying,
"the system is transparent. There are no possibilities of
tricks." Nominal winner Senator Jorge Capitanich, meanwhile,
traveled to Buenos Aires to celebrate his presumed victory
and have an official photo with President and First Lady
Kirchner. Capitanich got his photo, but only after waiting
several hours until he was seen by the Kirchners at 9 pm.
The final revision of the voting station tallies was stopped
on September 20 after Capitanich raised concerns over
discrepancies in the computer printouts and screen displays.
The provincial electoral authorities stopped the review
indefinitely due to insufficient security as both camps have
taken to the streets of Chaco to demonstrate. President of
the Chaco electoral board Ramon Avalos has said he does not
know when the recount will be finished.

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Carrio: "We will have a Run-Off"
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6. (SBU) Despite what various local polls report, Elisa
Carrio announced this week that she remains certain that she
will force Cristina Kirchner into a run-off in October. In
order to win outright in the first round, Senator Kirchner
needs to receive 45% of the vote or 40% with at least a
margin of 10 percentage points over the next-closest
competitor. All of the local polling firms are reporting
that the First Lady's poll numbers indicate she will win in
the first round easily, with none of the other candidates
able to pull more than 20% of the total votes. However,
Carrio insisted in press reports this week that she is
leading rival candidate former Kirchnerista Economy Minister
Roberto Lavagna by at least ten points -- a fact not
reflected in the polling numbers -- and that she will receive
enough votes on October 28 to force a run-off against
front-runner Cristina Kirchner. Carrio is quoted as saying,
"in the published polls, you have to take five points from
the official (FPV) party and give them to us." Carrio has
not explained how she arrived at these numbers.

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UCR: Down for the Count?
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7. (SBU) For much of the past century, the Radical Civic
Union (UCR) alternated with the conservatives and
subsequently with the Peronists as one of the dominant

political forces in Argentina. After its defeat in Chubut
and possibly Chaco provinces, the UCR is struggling to
maintain national relevance in Argentine politics. The UCR
had enjoyed periods of strong support in Chubut, alternating
power with the Peronists since 1983. The 71.64% victory of
FPV candidate and incumbent Governor Mario Das Neves over the
UCR's 12.59% share of the votes is the party's worst finish
since the return of democracy in 1983. However, the apparent
defeat in Chaco province is more worrisome to the national
party structure, as it was the only Radical governorship not
co-opted by Kirchner. Suspicions have emerged that sitting
UCR Governor Roy Nikisch, who has publicly maintained his
loyalty to the UCR, had secretly made a deal with Kirchner to
join the faction that supports President Kirchner, known
locally as the K Radicals. Party president Gerardo Morales
said of Nikisch, "during the campaign there he attended more
campaign events for Peronist mayors than he did for (UCR
candidate) Rozas." Chaco was also considered the main
bastion of support for presidential candidate Roberto
Lavagna, who is running mainly with the UCR's support. Two
weeks prior to the gubernatorial elections, Nikisch secured a
spot on Lavagna's list as candidate for national senator.
Nikisch was eligible for reelection, but was reportedly
convinced by the party to cede the UCR candidacy to Rozas,
perhaps in exchange for the chance to become senator. One
party source admitted in the press that it was naive of the
party not to realize Nikisch's changing loyalty after he was
received by Kirchner at the Casa Rosada and introduced as a K
Radical. In an apparent attempt at retribution for his
support of President Kirchner, the UCR expelled Governor of
Mendoza and vice presidential running-mate of Cristina
Kirchner Julio Cobos from the party.

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Comment
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8. (C) With just six weeks of campaigning left, the
national race for president remains uneventful. Former Vice
President and Radical leader Chacho Alvarez commented to the
ambassador September 21 how little political activity and
debate was taking place, a sad commentary he noted on the
weak political parties and the egotism of opposition leaders.
The opposition continues to promote its competitiveness in
the October elections, but polling numbers show no
significant improvement in their projected votes. Cristina
Kirchner remains around 45% in poll measuring intended votes,
with Carrio and Lavagna hovering between 10 and 13%. Carrio
has managed to keep her name and image in the press with
heavy criticisms of the current administration and
allegations of corruption. However, the GOA is unlikely to
forward to the OAS an official request for election
observers. The Kirchner ticket has been bolstered by two
more provincial wins and, in the process, apparently deprived
Argentina's traditional UCR party of its last executive
position and bastion of support. END COMMENT.

WAYNE