ARGENTINA'S FIRST COUPLE VISITS NEW YORK: HE SAYS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001883 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2007 TAGS: PGOV PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA'S FIRST COUPLE VISITS NEW YORK: HE SAYS GOOD-BYE, SHE SAYS HELLO REF: BUENOS AIRES 01777 Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: President Nestor Kirchner and First Lady, Senator, and presidential candidate Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will travel to New York September 23-29, where Kirchner will address the UNGA and Cristina will address the Council of Americas. (Septel reports Senator Kirchner's September 20 conversation with the Ambassador on the bilateral relationship and her policy priorities.) Argentine political analysts speculate that the trip will serve as a farewell for Kirchner, who is promoting the candidacy of his wife to replace him as the next president of Argentina, and as an opportunity for Senator Kirchner to reveal some of the "change" upon which she is campaigning. We can expect much continuity on many policies in a Cristina Kirchner administration, but foreign policy outside the southern cone region is expected to improve somewhat under Senator Kirchner, who clearly enjoys international relations more than her husband. The Kirchners' agenda includes private meetings with Israel's Foreign Minister, former President Clinton, the New York Federal Reserve's leadership, and "Time" magazine. Kirchner's UNGA speech is expected to focus on familiar themes: a summary of his mandate, a critique of the current international situation, sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (aka Malvinas),and the terrorist attacks against the Israeli embassy and the Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) building here in the 1990s. (A delegation from AMIA and victims families are accompanying the Kirchners.) End Summary. -------------- The New York Agenda -------------- ¶2. (C) President Nestor Kirchner and First Lady, Senator, and presidential candidate Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will travel to New York September 23-29, where Kirchner will address the UNGA and Fernandez de Kirchner will address the Council of Americas. The Kirchners are scheduled to arrive in New York on September 23. The next day, Kirchner will participate in the World Presidents' Forum on Climate Change. Senator Kirchner will meet privately with the leadership of "Time" magazine for an in-depth interview and profile. She will also participate in a panel discussion at New York University on human rights with Spanish Judge Baltasar Garzon and will receive an award from NYU. On the 25th, Kirchner will deliver his last speech as president to the 62nd General Assembly of the United Nations. The Kirchners will also meet that day with Argentine scientists and intellectuals living in the United States. The GOA has not confirmed Kirchner's attendance at President Bush's reception for visiting heads of government that night. Citing a previous commitment, Cristina declined First Lady Laura Bush's invitation to a luncheon to discuss health and literacy issues. One MFA official told us privately that at least part of the reason for declining was that this event was viewed as not sufficiently "presidential" for the virtual next president of Argentina. On the evening of the 25th, the Council of the Americas is arranging a small private dinner for Senator Kirchner. On Wednesday the 26th, Cristina is scheduled to address the Council of the Americas at a lunch in her honor. Kirchner is reportedly not planning to attend the COA event in order to give his wife the full spotlight. That afternoon, the couple will have a private meeting with former President Bill Clinton. On the 27th, the Kirchners will participate in the plenary session dedicated to Latin America at the annual meeting of Clinton's Global Initiative on climate change. Cristina told the Ambassador that she will meet with Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni on September 27 as well. ¶3. (C) The Kirchners have also accepted an invitation from New York Federal Reserve President Geithner to a small private lunch along with Argentine Central Bank President Radrado. According to press reports, the Kirchners may also join the families of victims of the 1994 AMIA bombing at a wreath-laying ceremony at Ground Zero. Cristina told the Ambassador September 20 that the GOA is paying the family members' travel expenses. ¶4. (C) Sometime during the week of the 23rd, Spanish Foreign Minister Miguel Angel Moratinos will reportedly facilitate a meeting between Argentine Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana, Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez, and Uruguayan Presidential Chief of Staff Gonzalo Fernandez. The meeting is ostensibly to discuss the bilateral dispute over the construction and operation of a paper pulp plant on the banks of the river that separates the neighboring countries. Foreign Minister Jorge Taiana, Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez, Planning Minister Julio De Vido, and Education Secretary Daniel Filmus, among others, are accompanying the SIPDIS Kirchners to New York. -------------- What Kirchner is Expected to Say -------------- ¶5. (C) Kirchner's UNGA address is expected to focus on familiar themes: a summary of his mandate, a critique of the current international situation, the question of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (aka Malvinas),and the terrorist attacks against the Israeli embassy and the AMIA building here in the 1990s. Local analysts anticipate Kirchner will touch on Argentina's complicated relations with Iran, whose former president and former foreign minister were implicated in the Argentine investigation into the 1994 bombing of the Argentine-Israeli Mutual Association (AMIA) building. However, Kirchner is not expected to say much more on Iran beyond denouncing Iran's lack of collaboration in investigating the attack. He reportedly will be joined by AMIA president Luis Grynwald, Delegation of Argentine Jewish Associations (DAIA) president Aldo Donzi, and representative of the families of the victims of AMIA Luis Burstein. (The Argentine Jewish community called for Kirchner to break relations with Iran and will be looking for how tough he will be in his speech.) ¶6. (C) At the Latin America session of Clinton's Global Initiative, analysts speculate that Kirchner will raise points similar to those he highlighted at a European Union-Mercosur summit in Vienna in 2005. At that meeting, Kirchner denounced the environmental double standard that separates rich countries from developing countries. Kirchner may also make a reference to the environmental bilateral dispute with Uruguay over the Finnish-owned Botnia paper pulp plant. -------------- What Cristina Can Be Expected to Say -------------- ¶7. (C) Cristina told the Ambassador September 20 that her New York schedule is full, but that she feels prepared. The main points of Cristina's speeches at the Council of the Americas and New York University are not known, but Argentine political analysts speculate that the trip will serve as an opportunity for her to elaborate on some of the "change" upon which she is campaigning as well as her openness to dialogue. We can expect much continuity on many policies in a Cristina administration, but foreign policy outside the southern cone region is expected to receive more attention under Mrs. Kirchner, who clearly enjoys international relations more than her husband. She has been traveling extensively in the past six months, demonstrating her presidential mettle and promoting Argentina as an attractive market for foreign investment. Cristina has just returned to Argentina after a successful visit to Germany and Austria, where she met with Angela Merkel, business leaders, and the President and Chancellor of Austria. Mrs. Kirchner is quoted by the German press as saying, "I'm well aware that some situations must change, must be corrected. I'm talking of economic, institutional and social issues, but whatever the changes I propose, they will be gradual." She is also reported to have said, "Don't expect any shock policies or tremors...Argentina is doing far better. Whoever does not accept this is acting foolishly." ¶8. (C) In her meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Mrs. Kirchner is reported to have engaged in polite conversation, avoiding controversial topics. But in a meeting with German Economy Minister Michael Glos, Mrs. Kirchner reiterated Argentina's intentions to negotiate the Paris Club debt without the intervention of the International Monetary Fund, expressing "moderate optimism" about improving Argentina's relation with the IMF if Frenchman Dominique Strauss-Kahn becomes the new Managing Director. The Argentine delegation reportedly told the Argentine press that Cristina did not discuss the Paris Club debt with either Merkel or Glos. ¶9. (C) In Austria, Mrs. Kirchner highlighted Argentina's wishes to increase ties to Europe and inquired about Austria's plans to compensate Holocaust victims, of which there are 4000 in Argentina. She is quoted to have said, "in Argentina, we are in a 'virtuous circle' in which we have linked economic growth with inclusion -- something we believe is fundamental." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Cristina Kirchner began signaling several months ago that she wants to use a different approach to dealing with other countries through her extensive recent travel. Mrs. Kirchner's performance in New York should provide a glimpse into how a Cristina administration might regard U.S.-Argentine relations in the future. We suspect she will be more open to dialogue but will also speak frankly when her views differ. Although we expect Cristina to continue many of her husband's policies and to defend his economic model, we expect this visit to demonstrate how the style of Argentina's presumptive next president differs from her husband's. END COMMENT. WAYNE