MEDIA REACTION; LEBANON; ARGENTINE DEBT TO PARIS CLUB;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001879 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; LEBANON; ARGENTINE DEBT TO PARIS CLUB; ARGENTINE FOREIGN POLICY; 09/20/07 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Major international stories today include the implications of yesterday's attack on Lebanon; First Lady/Senator and presidential candidate Cristina Kirchner's economic agenda; and expected changes in Argentina's foreign policy. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS - "A scenario with too many actors" Leading "Clarn" (09/20) carries an opinion piece by its international columnist Paula Lugones, who writes "Lebanon has always been the battlefield for regional confrontations and for the settlement of disputes among major powers... Yesterday's attack is not an exception to the rule. It occurred only a few days before a crucial leader will be elected both for neighboring countries and the West. The US and Israel want an anti-Syrian president who will put an end to Hezbollah's growing clout. Obviously enough, Syrians want a loyal government, just like Iran, an ally of Damascus and Lebanese Shiites. "The attack occurred in the context of escalating threats of war between Tehran and the West. In this regard, the car-bomb that murdered the anti-Syrian deputy is a devastating message for the region, and an alert signal to any attempt to form a democratic and independent government in Lebanon." - "Cristina's agenda includes public service rates and a 'light' deal with the IMF" Daniel Fernndez Canedo, senior editor of leading "Clarn," comments (09/20) "... The IMF is analyzing a new credit line (RAL) that could be the key to Argentina's reaching a deal aimed at renegotiating its six-billion-dollar debt with the Paris Club... "This credit line has an advantage for the (Argentine) Government - it does not include IMF monitoring, which President Kirchner considers unacceptable. "... The Argentine Government has already begun delineating the economic steps forward in a future government led by Cristina Kirchner. And one of them, which the Government considers a priority, is reaching a deal with the Paris Club. "Until now, an important obstacle was that any deal with the Paris Club calls for IMF approval... and Kirchner does not want even to talk about an IMF program. "However, a future Cristina administration could include such a deal and the country reportedly already fulfills the main conditions -there is no immediate need for using the money; the country has implemented sound macro-economic policies...; its public debt has a schedule of payment that can be met; and the country must prove transparency in its statistical data. "The Government believes it easily meets the first three criteria, and, although no one mentions it, it is aware that its credibility on statistics, is very low due to the crisis at INDEC, the national statistics agency. "Another unwritten point is that the IMF bureaucracy is deeply mistrustful of Argentine promises. "In addition to the resumption of the Paris Club debt negotiations, the public service rates issue is one of the first initiatives that will be undertaken. "(The Government) is planning to significantly reduce subsidies for energy generation and transport. "Some estimates are that public service rates could be increased by 15 percent starting in February, which could allo for a 50-percent reduction in electrical subsidies. "... As a matter of fact, the Government wants to make Cristina appear more austere than Nestor. The message the Government wants to convey is that after one year of almost 50 percent increases in public expenditure, next year's public expenditures will only increase by 25 percent or less." - "The tragedy of a country that does not solve its problems" Joaqun Morales Sol, political analyst of daily-of-record "La Nacisn," opines (09/20) "... According to a reliable source from the Argentine Government, the Kirchner administration and a future government led by Cristina Kirchner, will make some changes to the country's foreign policy. The list of friendly countries includes three priority nations - Germany, Spain and the US. "The country's new (foreign) policy is focused on the need to reach a deal for the repayment of the Paris Club debt. The same source said 'If one has to have friends in the world, then one should look for them among the powerful.' Germany is the country that has most emphasized the need for Argentina to repay its Paris Club debt. Washington could veto any unorthodox solution of the problem, even the one that the Government has already started to negotiate with... Dominique Strauss-Kahn. And Spain is important because the EU does not decide anything about Latin America without Madrid's approval. "... In the US, any debt negotiation should be approved by Congress. The US Congress will hardly accept a renegotiation that does not include an assessment of the IMF. The problem is more complicated, then, than the Kirchner administration's easy optimism..." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE