ARGENTINA: FIRST LADY LAUNCHES CANDIDACY FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001414 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL AR ECON SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: FIRST LADY LAUNCHES CANDIDACY FOR PRESIDENT REF: BUENOS AIRES 01286 Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: First Lady and Senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner officially launched her candidacy for president of Argentina at a ceremony in her home town on July ¶19. Fernandez's speech outlined three "pillars" that have served as the foundations of her husband President Nestor Kirchner's mandate and will serve as the basis for her term in office: reconstruction of the state, continuing with the current economic model, and changing Argentine culture. She highlighted how her husband brought Argentina out of the economic crisis of 2001 and how she believes that by following the same priorities and policies she can help the country continue to move forward. The entire cabinet of ministers attended the ceremony, as well as many governors, labor union leaders, and business leaders friendly to the Kirchners. This was the first indication of what a Fernandez presidency might bring in Argentina, and it suggests a continuing commitment to the current economic policy and to concentration of power in the executive branch. Argentine press coverage of the speech was mostly positive. Fernandez's claims of respect for the constitution's separation of power seems to contradict the actual record of her husband's presidency and her own political career. She gave no indication of openness to forging a broader political consensus. Nevertheless, barring a catastrophic government scandal or significant economic troubles, Fernandez is expected to win easily in October over a diffuse opposition. END SUMMARY. -------------- The Road to Success -------------- ¶2. (U) First Lady and Senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner officially launched her candidacy for president of Argentina at a ceremony in her home town of La Plata in Buenos Aires province on July 19. She is running as candidate for the Front for Victory (FPV),a party her husband President Kirchner founded to offer a Peronist alternative to the Justicialist Party. After a short video reviewing her life and political career (in which both Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Senator Hilary Clinton were featured),Fernandez took the stage and presented a 45 minute speech on how she believes Argentina should continue on its current path. The scenario was distinct from traditional Peronist party political acts, completely lacking party regalia, flags, and iconic images of Juan and/or Evita Peron--perhaps because Fernandez is not running as a Peronist candidate. The entire cabinet of ministers attended the ceremony, as well as many governors, labor union leaders, and business leaders friendly to the Kirchners. According to State-run news agency Telam, Fernandez's vice president running-mate will be announced on July 28, after the "Radicals K" vote on which of their governors will be the candidate. (NOTE: The Radicals K are a Kirchner-supporting faction of the traditional Argentine political party Radical Civic Union (UCR). END NOTE.) --Reconstructing the State ¶3. (U) Fernandez's speech outlined three "pillars" that have served as the foundations of her husband President Nestor Kirchner's mandate and that she said will serve as the basis for her term in office: reconstruction of the state, continuing with the current economic model, and changing Argentine culture. She claimed that the first Kirchner administration has "reconstructed the state" and returned the country to following the constitution with regard to the powers of the three main branches of government. She said that President Kirchner is the first president in years to actually make decisions and that he has restored the power of the presidency by doing so. Fernandez praised Kirchner's ability to create consensus among legislators and for his reform of the courts. She said that Kirchner had taken office during a time of "pre-democracy" and that under his administration the government has finally begun to operate as the constitution intended. She stressed that institutional reconstruction is not just the responsibility of the government, but also of the opposition, labor leaders, industry, and the media. --Accumulation and Inclusion: An Economic Model ¶4. (SBU) Fernandez's second pillar is the "economic and social model of accumulation and inclusion." She explained that social issues cannot be treated separately from economic issues, upon which they are dependent, and that they will be treated together in Argentina. She noted that the Kirchner economic model is the exact opposite of what she called the model of "accumulation and exclusion" of the 1990s in Argentina that concentrated wealth in the hands of the few and ignored quality of life issues for the greater population. Fernandez mentioned that the money-hungry "bourgeoisie" of the 1930's received its just rewards when it lost its wealth after World War II. She said that Brazil represented another example of how building a "bourgeois" class does not help to raise the quality of life standards of the common people. ¶5. (SBU) Fernandez said that "there are no Argentine mysteries for how the country reduced unemployment, raised wages, cut debt, and got rid of the International Monetary Fund." In an Argentine version of U.S. President Bill Clinton's famous line "it's the economy, stupid," Fernandez said that the economic model is the reason behind Argentina's successes. She said that although Argentina still has work to do on reducing poverty and indigence, the government's model is working. Fernandez also promised that Argentina would be spending a full six percent of GDP on education by 2010, if not sooner. --Changing the Culture of "Failure" ¶6. (SBU) Fernandez called her third pillar "cultural reconstruction." She said that Argentine society was suffering from a "culture of failure," in which no one invests in the long-term benefit of the country. She said that Argentines need to be more positive and focus their efforts on working to improve the country, not just live through its various ups and downs. She transitioned into a discussion of the merits of female leadership, explaining that women are "biologically designed to handle pain and adversity" and are better at multi-tasking than men. According to Fernandez, the reason behind the dissolution of families in Argentina is that men cannot handle being incapable of taking care of their families due to poverty or unemployment, so they leave--but women persevere. -------------- Praise for Kirchner -------------- ¶7. (SBU) Fernandez closed her speech with an homage to her husband President Nestor Kirchner's accomplishments as president and as a man. She praised him for "betting" on a different Argentina, one that was better than it had been in the past. She said that together they are betting on life, on a social contract to improve the lives of Argentine citizens. She thanked Kirchner for being the rare kind of person who would not seek reelection despite approval ratings over 70 percent and intended votes of over 50 percent. She said to Kirchner, "you have authority not because you get angry, but because of all that you have done and the way in which you have done it." She closed with a humorous: "the Argentines are going to miss you, I just hope they don't miss you too much." -------------- Violent Clashes Outside -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Just outside of the La Plata theater where Fernandez launched her campaign, supporters clashed over who could stand in certain spots, their support for mayoral candidates in the province of Buenos Aires, and other issues. "Militants of the Argentine Malvinas" (a social group) ended up in a violent brawl with militants from La Plata over who had arrived first at a supposed strategic spot downtown where both groups wished to display their flags. Supporters of congressmen Osvaldo Mercuri (Justicialist party, PJ) and Fernando Navarro (Victory Front, FPV),who both wish to succeed Lomas de Zamorra Mayor Jorge Rossi, engaged in a fist fight. Violent leftist protest group Quebracho is credited with violent incidents in the train station, where they were protesting for the release of members jailed earlier for violence. -------------- Press Coverage -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The initial Argentine press coverage of Fernandez's campaign launch was mostly positive. The speech was broadcast live on all of the main direct-access news channels and was a significant story in all of the major newspapers. According to one embassy press contact, Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez had contacted media giant Clarin CEO Hector Magnetto to negotiate positive coverage of the First Lady's speech. Clarin is the largest newspaper in Argentina and has rocky relations with the government, focusing much of attention recently on government corruption scandals. The same source indicated that the administration was hoping to have full, front-page coverage of the First Lady's launch, but the death of beloved Argentine writer and humorist Roberto Fontanarrosa received more front-page billing than Fernandez's speech. One Brazilian press outlet described Fernandez's candidacy as "more of the same, but with botox." -------------- The Opposition's Take -------------- ¶10. (SBU) The three main opposition candidates for president -- Elisa Carrio, Roberto Lavagna, and Ricardo Lopez Murphy -- had little to say about Fernandez's speech. Center-left leader Elisa Carrio said that she is too focused on her campaign to have watched the speech, but added she was glad that the Argentine people had a chance to see what the Kirchners are, saying "what you saw is what they are, pure theater." Ex-Kirchner Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna shrugged his shoulders when asked about Fernandez and said that he was not convinced by the resignation of tainted Economy Minister Felisa Miceli. Center-right politician Ricardo Lopez Murphy described Fernandez as "elegant," with a lot of experience as a congresswoman, senator, and vice president of the political block that had supported the reelection of former President Carlos Menem (whom she now attacks). Lopez Murphy said that he plans to ask the government for the same facilities that it had approved for Fernandez, the use of theaters and the state-run television channel, for his campaign. If he is not granted access to these things, he said he plans to file legislative or penal complaints against the Kirchners for "abuse of public resources." -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Fernandez's speech managed to contradict itself and the actual record of her husband's government. She waved the constitution (figuratively),yet has championed causes in the Senate that have represented attacks on the separation of powers. Her lauding of the President's concentration of power flies in the face of her claims of respect for the constitution's separation of powers. ¶12. (C) Nevertheless, Fernandez's official campaign launch was the first indication of what a Fernandez presidency might bring in Argentina, and it suggests a continuing commitment to the current economic policy and to concentration of power in the executive branch. Her impassioned praise of the current economic model and insistence that Argentina needs to continue to follow it indicate that we are not likely to see any significant changes in the economic policies or tools in a Fernandez administration. Her comments about Kirchner's strong grip on power and his return of decision-making to the presidency suggest that Fernandez will continue to concentrate power in the executive branch of the government. Her aggressive criticism of former administrations, though she did not mention names, suggests an environment of exclusion for dissenting views. ¶13. (C) There were very few indications of how Fernandez might differ from her husband as president, except for a brief mention of strategic planning for the mid- to long-term and support for a social dialogue. However, she is an experienced politician in her own right and has developed her own style during her terms as Senator and Congresswoman. She was more well known than her husband in 2003 when he ran for president against former President Carlos Menem. She is known for an aggressive demeanor and for following her own convictions. Her confident composure during the speech signals that, while substantive changes from her husband's presidency are not expected, the style of Fernandez's presidency may be very different. Barring a catastrophic government scandal or significant economic troubles, most pollsters expect Fernandez to win easily in October over a diffuse opposition. END COMMENT. WAYNE