ARGENTINA: MACRI IS NEW BUENOS AIRES MAYOR:

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001240 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: MACRI IS NEW BUENOS AIRES MAYOR: OPPOSITION BEATS ADMINISTRATION REF: BUENOS AIRES 01088 Classified By: Ambassador E. Anthony Wayne for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: President Kirchner's image of political invulnerability has been shaken by two local elections, but he is still far ahead in presidential election polls. Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO) is the new mayor of Buenos Aires city, having won the runoff election on June 24 by a margin of 21 percent over his competitor, national Education Minister Daniel Filmus. The Kirchner administration is also claiming victory of sorts, saying that Filmus's results represent an important showing for Peronism in the capital, but this is the first center-right victory in Buenos Aires since 1911. The national impact of the June 24th results in Buenos Aires is mostly on whether the opposition can unite to present a real alternative to officialism. The province of Tierra del Fuego also held a runoff election for governor on the 24th with the surprise defeat of the current "Kirchnerista" Governor by center-left ARI candidate Fabiana Rios (Argentina's first elected female governor). Both election results represent a defeat for President Kirchner's Victory Front party (FPV). Neither is expected to affect significantly the President's or First Lady's chances of an easy reelection in October, but they have set off a wave of speculation about how the President will respond. END SUMMARY. -------------- Buenos Aires Runoff Results -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO) will be the new mayor of Buenos Aires in December, after winning 60.96 percent of the votes in the runoff elections for mayor on June 24. Macri's win represents the first time since 1911 that a center-right candidate has won in the capital. Of the four mayoral elections held since the city's autonomy in 1994, Macri finished with the largest advantage over his competitor in both the first and second rounds of voting. While Macri's campaign espoused the ideals of efficiency, security, and order, these center-right principles were tempered by vice-mayoral candidate Gabriela Michetti, who is widely viewed as representing more center-left ideals such as "sensibility," solidarity, and equality. Several analysts here have said that the vice-candidate has never had such an important role in campaigning as did Michetti. ¶3. (C) The Kirchner administration's candidate National Education Minister Daniel Filmus finished with 39.04 percent. The administration is claiming that Filmus's strong finish in the historically non-Peronist capital represents a victory in and of itself. Although Filmus and his Casa Rosada supporters had tried to nationalize the campaign, Filmus tried to minimize the effect of his defeat on the President, saying the election had been about local issues and that it was he who lost and not the administration. President Kirchner and First Lady Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner each called Filmus to congratulate him on reaching 40 percent, but there was a noticeable toning down of the administration's support of Filmus after his final defeat and the more obvious support after Filmus's win of second place on June 3. ¶4. (U) The celebration at Macri's "bunker" was predictable exuberant. When the crowd began chanting "this is for Kirchner to watch on TV," Macri stopped them immediately saying, "that is not PRO." Macri has already begun negotiations with current Mayor Jorge Telerman (who lost in the first round on June 3) (reftel) on facilitating the transition of power, which takes place on December 10. (NOTE: Macri will need this time to find people to fill the approximately 1000 political position in the city government. According to a PRO legislator, PRO has about 500 people now to fill these positions, but needs to recruit about 500 more. END NOTE.) So far, Macri has confirmed only three members of his future cabinet: Horacio Rodriguez Larreta, PRO vice-president and campaign chief, has been chosen as chief of staff; Nestor Grindetti, current director of the City Bank, will be the Tax Minister; and Mariano Narodowski, who headed the PRO list for city legislators, will not assume the position of legislator but rather will serve as Minister of Education. -------------- -------------- Surprise in Tierra del Fuego: Argentina's First Female Governor -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) The southern-most province of Tierra del Fuego held its runoff elections for governor on June 24th, resulting in the surprise win of center-left Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic party (ARI) candidate Fabiana Rios. Rios will be the first elected female governor in the history of Argentina and will assume her new position on January 10, ¶2008. This is also the first executive position for the ARI party, whose voter base has widely been considered to be in the city of Buenos Aires. Rios's win has also been called a redemption of ARI and its former leader, presidential candidate Elisa Carrio, who suffered a political blow after her civic coalition with Buenos Aries Mayor Telerman failed to win a place in the Buenos Aires runoff. ¶5. (C) Although Rios's win is not expected to affect President Kirchner's chances of reelection (or his wife's chances of being elected (reftel)) in October, it does indicate that Kirchner has lost the invincible image he seemed to have had. His support for current Governor Hugo Coccaro was not enough to guarantee reelection. This echoes a trend started last October when a Kirchner-backed proposal to allow indefinite reelections in Misiones province was soundly defeated. ¶6. (C) Rios's win must be put into context of her opponent's persona. Coccaro is accused of trying to have the former Governor Jorge Colazo of the UCR party assassinated while Coccaro served as vice-governor. Several emboffs have described Coccaro as a crime-boss like figure and their encounters with him as "scary." He took over as governor in 2005 after Colazo was removed from office--he was not elected to the position. The other "Kirchnerista" candidate, Jorge Garramuno, suffered a major blow in the polls just days before the first round when a video of one of his associates accepting a bribe was aired. This created a unique circumstance that allowed for Rios's election. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶7. (C) Macri is the clear winner of the June 24 Buenos Aires mayoral elections. He not only maintained his lead from the first round, but now becomes the de facto leader of the dispersed opposition and strong potential contender for 2011 presidential elections. It will not be easy for the opposition to capitalize on Macri's sound victory before October, as the three current opposition candidates for president--Elisa Carrio, Roberto Lavagna, and Ricardo Lopez Murphy--have so far been unable to unite into one cohesive entity. ¶8. (C) Five months before the presidential election, Kirchner already had plenty of issues that could prove to be damaging to his standing in the polls, with energy shortages most recently added to the list of public complaints. The new question that has begun to surface is: what if the official candidate does not reach 40 percent in October, thus requiring a runoff against the second-place candidate and giving the opposition a real motive to unite that it lacks today. The advantage for the October presidential elections still rests strongly with President Kirchner, but Macri's sound victory and the surprise opposition win in Tierra del Fuego may significantly impact Kirchner's decision to run himself or run First Lady Senator Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner as the official candidate. This is a decision we are now not likely to see until some time in August or early September, rather than the late July time frame earlier predicted by many. (NOTE: According to Argentine electoral law, presidential candidates must legally register their candidacies between 90 and 50 days prior to the election. In this case, that window is between July 28 and September 8. END NOTE.) END COMMENT. WAYNE