ARGENTINA: SHOWDOWN FOR BUENOS AIRES MAYOR:

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUENOS AIRES 001088 SIPDIS SIPDIS EMBASSY VILNIUS FOR THOMAS P. KELLY EMBASSY GUATEMALA FOR ALEX FEATHERSTONE E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL AR SUBJECT: ARGENTINA: SHOWDOWN FOR BUENOS AIRES MAYOR: OPPOSITION VS. ADMINISTRATION REF: BUENOS AIRES 00906 Classified By: ACDA Michael Matera for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO) was the clear winner of the first round of voting for mayor of Buenos Aires city on June 3, but the Kirchner administration can also claim victory, as its candidate, National Education Minister Daniel Filmus came in second. This has pushed current Mayor Jorge Telerman out of the run-off election set for June 24, and seriously damaged the image of his campaign partner presidential candidate Elisa Carrio. Long-thought to have no chance in the city elections, Filmus's win of a spot in the run-off is a win for the Kirchner administration, but could set him up for a significant defeat in the second round. The national impact of the June 3rd results in Buenos Aires is mostly on internal struggles within the Kirchner camp and on the pole positions of the opposition candidates for president. Macri's "ample" margin of victory in the first round sets him up as the likely winner of the second round, although nothing is guaranteed. President Kirchner now must decide whether the administration will make an all out effort (including an aggressive anti-Macri campaign that runs the risk of backfiring) to increase support for Filmus, which will likely fall well short, or to consider it victory enough to have pushed Telerman out of the runoff and weakened Carrio as a national candidate. END SUMMARY. -------------- Election Results -------------- ¶2. (U) Center-right leader Mauricio Macri (PRO) was the clear winner with 45.6 percent of the votes in the first round for mayor of Buenos Aires city on June 3, but the Kirchner administration can also claim victory, as its candidate, National Education Minister Daniel Filmus came in second with 23.8 percent. Third place went to current Mayor Jorge Telerman and his Civic Coalition with 20.7 percent. Telerman and Filmus had been polling at nearly the same numbers for most of May in the lead-up to the elections, but strong support from President Nestor Kirchner seems to have given Filmus the extra push his campaign needed to pull ahead of Telerman. ¶3. (U) Macri's party gained six seats in the city legislature, giving them 28 of the 60 total seats and a near majority. Both Filmus' and Telerman's parties lost seats (one and two respectively),while leftists Patricia Walsh and Claudio Lozano each picked up one legislative seat. The new distribution of seats in the city legislature will become effective on December 10. -------------- Filmus in Second Round -------------- ¶4. (C) Filmus's win of a spot in the run-off is a win for the Kirchner administration. Long-thought to have no hope of posing a serious challenge to Telerman's chances of facing Macri in the second round, Filmus obtained a three point victory over Telerman. Both Telerman and Filmus are Peronist but Telerman never enjoyed the support of the Casa Rosada and there was a long-running struggle between Telerman and Kirchner Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez, who is also the Peronist party leader in the City. Telerman had come to represent a Peronist alternative to Kirchner (and Fernandez) in the city and the first round election became a de facto Peronist primary with Macri content to take the high ground and let the two PJ party rivals slug it out. Filmus's campaign began to improve its standing after the personal support of Kirchner, indicating that although the city is considered to be anti-Peronist, Kirchner can count some strong supporters among the city's voters. ¶5. (C) While Filmus's finish in the first round is a triumph of sorts for Kirchnerism in the city, it has potentially set Filmus up for a significant defeat in the run-off. Even with the full support of the GOA behind him in the next three weeks, it will be difficult for Filmus to reverse the 22 point lead that Macri achieved in the first round. Months of mudslinging and bitter rivalry between the Filmus and Telerman camps could have a negative impact on encouraging Telerman supporters to support Filmus. Macri only needs one-quarter of the Telerman voters to support him in the second round to defeat Filmus--a very viable scenario. While Filmus's supporters would have been expected to vote en masse for Telerman in the second round, not all of Telerman's supporters can be counted in support of Filmus. -------------- National Consequences -------------- ¶6. (C) The national impact of the June 3rd results in Buenos Aires is mostly on internal struggles within the Kirchner camp and on the pole positions of the opposition candidates for president. Cabinet Chief Alberto Fernandez played a major role in supporting Filmus's candidacy and vilifying Telerman. As Kirchner's first presidential term draws to an end rumors of cabinet level changes in personnel are swirling and, while Fernandez is believed by many to be one of the few not in risk of losing his position, he has always been outside the inner circle of cronies from the Kirchner's home province of Santa Cruz. Filmus's place in the run-off is a victory not just for officialism but for Fernandez's political capital. ¶7. (C) Filmus's win has pushed Telerman out of the run-off election set for June 24, but many analysts here see this as a bigger defeat for Telerman's coalition partner center-left leader and presidential candidate Elisa Carrio. Carrio, with little chance in the national election, is nevertheless Kirchner's most vocal critic and a general pain in the neck for the administration. By marginalizing her importance in the city--her strongest district of support--this election has significantly weakened her position as a presidential candidate and given an advantage to ex-Economy Minister Roberto Lavagna, who is running at the head of an anti-Kirchner Peronist and Radical Civic Union (UCR) alliance. None of this, however, is expected to have much of an impact on whether the official candidate for president in October will be Nestor or Cristina Kirchner, or on the eventual outcome of the election. -------------- Neuquen Province also Goes to Opposition -------------- ¶8. (C) In gubernatorial elections held the same day as the Buenos Aires elections, the party of current Governor and one-time presidential candidate Jorge Sobisch won over the Kirchner-supported Radical candidate. Popular Movement of Neuquen (MPN) candidate Jorge Sapag faced overcoming the stigma of the scandal Sobisch suffered for his management of a teachers union strike that resulted in the death of a teacher (reftel). Sapag won by a margin of fourteen points over the Kirchner-supported Radical Civic Union-K candidate Horacio Quiroga. Sapag's win in Neuquen is more likely the result of decades of MPN control of the province than it is a true defeat for Kirchner's Front for Victory Party (FPV). (COMMENT: One analyst here has suggested that Argentine elections are trending towards maintaining the incumbency of the ruling parties, with Neuquen as the fifth province to follow this pattern in local elections, following Corrientes, Catamarca, Entre Rios, and Rio Negro. END COMMENT.) -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Macri is the clear winner of the June 3 Buenos Aires mayoral elections. He not only won enough votes in the first round to position himself as the probable winner of the second round, but has become the potential leader of the center-right opposition and potential contender for 2011 presidential elections. Macri's comfortable lead is strengthened by his win in every voting district in the city--the lowest of which he won with 39 percent of the votes. It will be difficult for Filmus to bridge the 22 point gap currently between him and front-runner Macri. It is unclear how support from Kirchner for Filmus's campaign will help or hurt his chances of winning on the 24th, as city voters have shown themselves to be unpredictable in their opinions about the administration. Some analysts estimate that Kirchner/Filmus support would top out at 40 percent. ¶10. (C) Five months before the presidential election, Kirchner has plenty of issues that could prove to be damaging to his standing in the polls. Domestic shortages of electricity, natural gas, and gasoline have begun to affect large sectors of the country in the form of rolling black-outs and fuel shortages, and to weaken the position of National Infrastructure Minister Julio DeVido, who is also plagued by the specter of the Skanska scandal that threatens to implicate his office in alleged corruption. Kirchner has so far supported DeVido, perhaps, as analysts here suggest, perceiving that a change in his support for DeVido could be seen as political weakness. Given all of this, President Kirchner could consider that his job in the city is done and begin distancing himself somewhat from a candidate with little chances of beating the main political opposition leader. This president is hard to predict, however, and he could decide to go for it all, double his bet, and pull out all the stops for Filmus for the June 24 run-off. END COMMENT. MATERA