MEDIA REACTION KIRCHNER-LULA'S ROLE IN MODERATING CHAVEZ;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000106 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION KIRCHNER-LULA'S ROLE IN MODERATING CHAVEZ; CHINA AND THE SPACE ARMS RACE; THE US AND LATIN AMERICA; 2007 DAVOS WEF; TRI-BORDER AREA; EVO MORALES' FIRST YEAR IN POWER; CHAVEZ; US AMBASSADOR WAYNE MEETING WITH VP DANIEL SCIOLI; 01/22/07; BUENOS AIRES ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend stories include Argentine President Kirchner and Brazilian President Lula da Silva's role in moderating Chavez in favor of Mercosur's interests; fears of China re-launching its space arms race; the two highest-ranking Democratic leaders of Congress criticizing the White House for having "disregarded other 'threats' and 'challenges', such as those posed by Cuba and Venezuela;" the 2007 Davos World Economic Forum vis-`-vis "uncontrolled globalization;" US intelligence reports on the Tri-Border area; the USG's priorities in Latin America; Bolivian President Evo Morales' first year in power; Venezuelan President Chavez' project; and US Ambassador Wayne's statement that Argentine President Kirchner's leadership has a positive impact on the region. ¶2. OPINION PIECES - "Kirchner and Lula agree to keep Chavez 'in check'" Natasha Niebieskikwiat, political columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (01/20) "... Kirchner and Lula agreed on the need to moderate Chavez's speech in favor of Mercosur's interests, which could be affected by the Bolivarian president's rhetoric. "This is an irritant for the two countries vis-`-vis this wealthy and powerful new Mercosur full member, whom they consider a strategic partner in spite of his rebuffs." - "The uncomfortable partner" Walter Curia, political columnist of leading "Clarin," comments (01/20) "The only strategy Kirchner and Lula have available in order to deal with the uneasiness generated by Chavez is that one counts on the other one. The radicalization of Chavez's regime, which is now verging autocracy, posed a tough challenge to both Lula and Kirchner at the Mercosur Summit... "Chavez was included among the security 'challenges' to be met by Washington by US Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and the Leader of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi... "In a not too distant future, Chavez could be declared an open threat, which perhaps he wishes at some deeper level. Then, the balance will hardly be reached. It is difficult to imagine that Kirchner and Lula are not thinking about that." - "Fears of China re-launching its space arms race" Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," comments (01/20) "With the destruction of one of its weather satellites, China has just demonstrated that it is in a position to destroy any of the hundreds of US space espionage and military satellites. "Until now, only two countries have had this ability - the US and Russia... On January 12, the US Pentagon secretly watched the destruction of the Chinese satellite step by step... "As predictable, the Bush administration raised an outcry stating that China is jeopardizing Washington-Beijing cooperation in arms control... "The truth is that the US has systematically refused to sign a global space demilitarization treaty in order to have freedom of action in this regard. Some experts like Michael Krepon, from the Henry L. Stimson Center, believe that the Chinese test could mean the beginning of a diplomatic offensive from Beijing to negotiate arms space banning. "However, others, like Theresa Hitchens, head of the Defense Information Center, warn that 'China decided to become a heavyweight threat for US satellites.'" - "Bush is warned on Latin America's tilt to the left" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/20) "For the first time since they took over, the two highest-ranking Democratic leaders of Congress criticized the White House for having disregarded other 'threats' and 'challenges', such as those bogged down in Iraq. "US Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and the Leader of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, focused all their criticism on Iraq and, to a lesser extent, on Iran and North Korea, but they also criticized the (USG's) 'overlook' of Latin America. "According to Reid, Cuba and Venezuela are some of the 'world critical challenges that the US should meet.' For him, Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez pose a threat because the two of them want 'to leave a leftist mark on young Latin American democracies.' "Reid was sorry that the two leaders are still broadening their influence on the hemisphere because US President George W. Bush is so 'absorbed' and 'overwhelmed' by the war in Iraq that he cannot focus on these and other 'challenges,' like those of Iran and North Korea. "... For her part, Nancy Pelosi, said that the US should 'pay more attention to our neighbors, with whom we share the hemisphere.' However, she did not mention any concrete proposal aimed at rebuilding bridges with them. She only emphasized the 'social and cultural' ties between the US and its 'neighbors' in the region." - "2007 Davos - an outlook on uncontrolled globalization" Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," opines (01/20) "... The roughly 2000 academicians, economists, business leaders and political leaders in Davos who will attend a new World Economic Forum meeting should leave aside extreme simplicity and dogmatic tautologies on the abstract concept of 'market' and reflect that even ideological systems that could appear obsolete could unexpectedly revive while others that seem eternal could be broken to pieces in the same bronze on which we attempted to perpetuate them. "... We witness a reaction against the damaging effects of globalization... "There is a growing resentment over asymmetries... Protectionism is gaining roots again in developed countries, but not only through the claim to protect certain products but for the governments to safeguard working positions." - "The Tri-Border area concerns the US" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/21) "Based on information gathered on the Tri-Border area, US intelligence services concluded there is no evidence of terrorist groups related to Hezbollah and Hamas in the area, but that funds are being collected in the region to finance the operations of the two groups, which are termed as 'terrorist' and 'enemies' of the US. "US intelligence conclusions appear on the latest report submitted by the head of the UN Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Richard Lugar... Its conclusions are in line with the Bush administration's prevailing view. "Entitled "Embassies as posts of command in the antiterrorist campaign,' the senatorial report analyzes the ordinary challenges to be met by US diplomats and government officials all around the world while they plead for the Bush administration's goals in the so-called 'war on terror.' "When speaking about Latin America, Lugar emphasizes that 'there is no global terrorist organization in the region posing a direct threat to the US.' He submits a 2005 US State Department report, according to which no 'terrorist Islamic groups' are acting in the hemisphere,' except in the US and Canada. "However, Lugar immediately focuses on the Tri-Border: 'There are isolated groups, particularly on theTriple Frontier, as well as in Venezuela and Guyana, that are ideological, financial and logistical supporters of Middle East terrorist groups." - "This will be the 'year of commitment'" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/21) "(A/S) Tom Shannon, the visible face of the Bush administration for the hemisphere, said during his latest 2006 press conference that '2007 will be the year of commitment' between the US and Latin America... He actually emphasized US policies. However, others outside of the Republican administration are skeptical. "Everyone acknowledges that Shannon represents conciliatory diplomatic practices. However, committing to such diverse countries as Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela or Nicaragua will pose a major challenge... The reasons for this are diverse. "Democrats will promote some slight changes on the US policy on Cuba and will hinder trade with the region, thereby blocking the Bush administration's goals... "Latin American countries that wanted to have closer ties with the US have already built their bridges to achieve this goal. And those who have not been interested in this up to now will maintain their distance... All leaders of the region know that Bush is... already a 'lame duck.' "The White House has a top international priority that will cloud everything else for years... - Iraq. And if this was not enough, there are other challenges surpassing Latin America - North Korea and Iran's nuclear ambitions, the war in Afghanistan and Lebanon's disintegration. "Such a panorama turns Latin America into 'a new Atlantis, the lost heartland.' "Shannon trusts, as well as diplomats from Argentina and other Latin American countries, that there will be more opportunities for a frank dialogue behind the scenes. He knows that Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill could well claim trade and immigration changes, but that the Executive Branch will retain day-to-day US foreign policy. "Then, what will be the (US) priorities for Latin America until January 2009 presidential change? Will those priorities change vis-`-vis previous years? Not much. "The Bush administration's priorities include approving FTAs with Colombia, Peru and Panama. Only after that, tackling with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua will come... "Elections in Peru and Mexico appeased Washington, marked a brake on the hemispheric trend toward the left and also played down Ortega's return to Managua... "... To al this, one should add the Bush administration's public diplomacy', which in Buenos Aires is implemented by US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne (more active than his predecessor Lino Gutierrez in the public arena). "... Washington will make progress with Argentina on its topic of most interest - the fight against terror. Americans acknowledged the (Argentine) Government's alignment in this regard. But they want more - they take the AMIA case investigation as a conclusive piece of evidence with regard to the Iranian threat. When the time comes, they will use it to promote a diplomatic and military escalation against Tehran. This is why they are making progress on this without keeping Buenos Aires posted." - "Evo Morales - one year between heaven and hell" Ignacio Colo, on special assignment in La Paz for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/22) "... After one year marked by calling a Constituent Assembly, the hydrocarbon nationalization legislation and multiple popular outbursts in Bolivia, President Evo Morales has been in power for twelve months and he opens the doors to a second stage, which is marked by a new riddle - how to guarantee governance in this rocked and unpredictable country. "During the first year of his administration, and supported by almost 54 percent of the vote, Morales has launched transformational measures that have unleashed serious controversy in Bolivia, the region and even among foreign investors. "... Regarding hydrocarbon nationalization, Cayetano Llobet, Bolivian political analyst, said 'No one can deny that nationalization is a merit of the government.' "The expert emphasized that it was a publicity win for the government because the long-standing claim for nationalization was used as a strategy to renegotiate the agreements - in this way, the president was able to satisfy multinational companies as well as his followers. "Nonetheless, while the hydrocarbons nationalization issue no longer hits the Bolivian papers' headlines, it will have to overcome important challenges this year for it to be considered a really successful measure. "... The Morales administration's major Achilles' heel is the Constituent Assembly, whose main objective was to 're-found' the country. After five months of work, it is completely blocked due to internal reasons. "The controversy is focused on the voting system - either the two-thirds or the absolute majority." - "A new socialism or better democracy" Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed story by Mario Toer, professor of Latin American Policy, Political Sciences, National University of Buenos Aires, who writes (01/22) "... Chavez has promised Venezuelans that he wants to lead the country toward 'Socialism of the 21st century'... "... The high Venezuelan growth rate has encouraged the emergence of something like 'a Bolivarian bourgeoisie.' Chavez also promised to revisit the territorial division and strengthen new communities to foster the participation of the social sectors that have recently entered the political scenario. "Chavez should attend to the complicated political configuration in the South of the country, which will compel him to be less blunt and more thoughtful with his Mercosur allies. Others have chosen more prudent statements. For instance, Bolivian VP Alvaro Garcia Linera said that what is taking place in his country and the region is 'some deepening of the democratic revolution.'" - "Argentine VP Scioli receives the US Ambassador" Atilio Bleta, columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (01/20) "VP Daniel Scioli received credentials from six ambassadors, among them, US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne and Spanish Ambassador Rafael Estrella Pedrola. The US and Spain are two of the countries on which Argentina places priority in its international relations. "... The most important visit was that of US Ambassador Wayne, whose dynamic attitude surprised the diplomatic circles ever since he arrived in the country. Wayne has already held meetings with most of the members of the National Cabinet, but he has not met with Kirchner so far. "... According to sources close to VP Scioli, Wayne surprised Scioli because he was informed about Scioli's conversation with US Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez during Ecuadorian President SIPDIS Rafael Correa's swearing in ceremony. "Both in his meeting with Gutierrez in Quito and with Wayne yesterday, VP Scioli insisted that the US 'should not think in terms of FTAA or no FTAA.' And that, on the contrary, it should have 'a view of self-criticism and acknowledgement of Latin America,' because, according to Scioli, 'there have never been so many democratic governments in the region.'" To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE