MEDIA REACTION KIRCHNER-LULA'S ROLE IN MODERATING CHAVEZ;

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 000106

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION KIRCHNER-LULA'S ROLE IN MODERATING CHAVEZ;
CHINA AND THE SPACE ARMS RACE; THE US AND LATIN AMERICA; 2007 DAVOS
WEF; TRI-BORDER AREA; EVO MORALES' FIRST YEAR IN POWER; CHAVEZ; US
AMBASSADOR WAYNE MEETING WITH VP DANIEL SCIOLI; 01/22/07; BUENOS
AIRES



1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend stories include Argentine President Kirchner and Brazilian
President Lula da Silva's role in moderating Chavez in favor of
Mercosur's interests; fears of China re-launching its space arms
race; the two highest-ranking Democratic leaders of Congress
criticizing the White House for having "disregarded other 'threats'
and 'challenges', such as those posed by Cuba and Venezuela;" the
2007 Davos World Economic Forum vis-`-vis "uncontrolled
globalization;" US intelligence reports on the Tri-Border area; the
USG's priorities in Latin America; Bolivian President Evo Morales'
first year in power; Venezuelan President Chavez' project; and US
Ambassador Wayne's statement that Argentine President Kirchner's
leadership has a positive impact on the region.


2. OPINION PIECES

- "Kirchner and Lula agree to keep Chavez 'in check'"

Natasha Niebieskikwiat, political columnist of leading "Clarin,"
writes (01/20) "... Kirchner and Lula agreed on the need to moderate
Chavez's speech in favor of Mercosur's interests, which could be
affected by the Bolivarian president's rhetoric.

"This is an irritant for the two countries vis-`-vis this wealthy
and powerful new Mercosur full member, whom they consider a
strategic partner in spite of his rebuffs."

- "The uncomfortable partner"

Walter Curia, political columnist of leading "Clarin," comments
(01/20) "The only strategy Kirchner and Lula have available in order
to deal with the uneasiness generated by Chavez is that one counts
on the other one. The radicalization of Chavez's regime, which is
now verging autocracy, posed a tough challenge to both Lula and
Kirchner at the Mercosur Summit...

"Chavez was included among the security 'challenges' to be met by
Washington by US Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and the Leader
of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi...

"In a not too distant future, Chavez could be declared an open
threat, which perhaps he wishes at some deeper level. Then, the
balance will hardly be reached. It is difficult to imagine that
Kirchner and Lula are not thinking about that."

- "Fears of China re-launching its space arms race"

Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin,"
comments (01/20) "With the destruction of one of its weather
satellites, China has just demonstrated that it is in a position to
destroy any of the hundreds of US space espionage and military
satellites.

"Until now, only two countries have had this ability - the US and
Russia... On January 12, the US Pentagon secretly watched the
destruction of the Chinese satellite step by step...

"As predictable, the Bush administration raised an outcry stating
that China is jeopardizing Washington-Beijing cooperation in arms
control...

"The truth is that the US has systematically refused to sign a
global space demilitarization treaty in order to have freedom of
action in this regard. Some experts like Michael Krepon, from the
Henry L. Stimson Center, believe that the Chinese test could mean
the beginning of a diplomatic offensive from Beijing to negotiate
arms space banning.

"However, others, like Theresa Hitchens, head of the Defense
Information Center, warn that 'China decided to become a heavyweight
threat for US satellites.'"

- "Bush is warned on Latin America's tilt to the left"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/20) "For the first time
since they took over, the two highest-ranking Democratic leaders of
Congress criticized the White House for having disregarded other
'threats' and 'challenges', such as those bogged down in Iraq.

"US Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and the Leader of the US
House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, focused all their criticism
on Iraq and, to a lesser extent, on Iran and North Korea, but they




also criticized the (USG's) 'overlook' of Latin America.

"According to Reid, Cuba and Venezuela are some of the 'world
critical challenges that the US should meet.' For him, Fidel Castro
and Hugo Chavez pose a threat because the two of them want 'to leave
a leftist mark on young Latin American democracies.'

"Reid was sorry that the two leaders are still broadening their
influence on the hemisphere because US President George W. Bush is
so 'absorbed' and 'overwhelmed' by the war in Iraq that he cannot
focus on these and other 'challenges,' like those of Iran and North
Korea.

"... For her part, Nancy Pelosi, said that the US should 'pay more
attention to our neighbors, with whom we share the hemisphere.'
However, she did not mention any concrete proposal aimed at
rebuilding bridges with them. She only emphasized the 'social and
cultural' ties between the US and its 'neighbors' in the region."

- "2007 Davos - an outlook on uncontrolled globalization"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin,"
opines (01/20) "... The roughly 2000 academicians, economists,
business leaders and political leaders in Davos who will attend a
new World Economic Forum meeting should leave aside extreme
simplicity and dogmatic tautologies on the abstract concept of
'market' and reflect that even ideological systems that could appear
obsolete could unexpectedly revive while others that seem eternal
could be broken to pieces in the same bronze on which we attempted
to perpetuate them.

"... We witness a reaction against the damaging effects of
globalization...

"There is a growing resentment over asymmetries... Protectionism is
gaining roots again in developed countries, but not only through the
claim to protect certain products but for the governments to
safeguard working positions."

- "The Tri-Border area concerns the US"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/21) "Based on information
gathered on the Tri-Border area, US intelligence services concluded
there is no evidence of terrorist groups related to Hezbollah and
Hamas in the area, but that funds are being collected in the region
to finance the operations of the two groups, which are termed as
'terrorist' and 'enemies' of the US.

"US intelligence conclusions appear on the latest report submitted
by the head of the UN Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican
Richard Lugar... Its conclusions are in line with the Bush
administration's prevailing view.

"Entitled "Embassies as posts of command in the antiterrorist
campaign,' the senatorial report analyzes the ordinary challenges to
be met by US diplomats and government officials all around the world
while they plead for the Bush administration's goals in the
so-called 'war on terror.'

"When speaking about Latin America, Lugar emphasizes that 'there is
no global terrorist organization in the region posing a direct
threat to the US.' He submits a 2005 US State Department report,
according to which no 'terrorist Islamic groups' are acting in the
hemisphere,' except in the US and Canada.

"However, Lugar immediately focuses on the Tri-Border: 'There are
isolated groups, particularly on theTriple Frontier, as well as in
Venezuela and Guyana, that are ideological, financial and logistical
supporters of Middle East terrorist groups."

- "This will be the 'year of commitment'"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (01/21) "(A/S) Tom Shannon, the
visible face of the Bush administration for the hemisphere, said
during his latest 2006 press conference that '2007 will be the year
of commitment' between the US and Latin America... He actually
emphasized US policies. However, others outside of the Republican
administration are skeptical.

"Everyone acknowledges that Shannon represents conciliatory
diplomatic practices. However, committing to such diverse countries
as Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador,




Venezuela or Nicaragua will pose a major challenge... The reasons
for this are diverse.

"Democrats will promote some slight changes on the US policy on Cuba
and will hinder trade with the region, thereby blocking the Bush
administration's goals...

"Latin American countries that wanted to have closer ties with the
US have already built their bridges to achieve this goal. And those
who have not been interested in this up to now will maintain their
distance... All leaders of the region know that Bush is... already a
'lame duck.'

"The White House has a top international priority that will cloud
everything else for years... - Iraq. And if this was not enough,
there are other challenges surpassing Latin America - North Korea
and Iran's nuclear ambitions, the war in Afghanistan and Lebanon's
disintegration.

"Such a panorama turns Latin America into 'a new Atlantis, the lost
heartland.'

"Shannon trusts, as well as diplomats from Argentina and other Latin
American countries, that there will be more opportunities for a
frank dialogue behind the scenes. He knows that Democratic leaders
on Capitol Hill could well claim trade and immigration changes, but
that the Executive Branch will retain day-to-day US foreign policy.

"Then, what will be the (US) priorities for Latin America until
January 2009 presidential change? Will those priorities change
vis-`-vis previous years? Not much.

"The Bush administration's priorities include approving FTAs with
Colombia, Peru and Panama. Only after that, tackling with Cuba,
Venezuela and Nicaragua will come...

"Elections in Peru and Mexico appeased Washington, marked a brake on
the hemispheric trend toward the left and also played down Ortega's
return to Managua...

"... To al this, one should add the Bush administration's public
diplomacy', which in Buenos Aires is implemented by US Ambassador
Earl Anthony Wayne (more active than his predecessor Lino Gutierrez
in the public arena).

"... Washington will make progress with Argentina on its topic of
most interest - the fight against terror. Americans acknowledged the
(Argentine) Government's alignment in this regard. But they want
more - they take the AMIA case investigation as a conclusive piece
of evidence with regard to the Iranian threat. When the time comes,
they will use it to promote a diplomatic and military escalation
against Tehran. This is why they are making progress on this without
keeping Buenos Aires posted."

- "Evo Morales - one year between heaven and hell"

Ignacio Colo, on special assignment in La Paz for daily-of-record
"La Nacion," writes (01/22) "... After one year marked by calling a
Constituent Assembly, the hydrocarbon nationalization legislation
and multiple popular outbursts in Bolivia, President Evo Morales has
been in power for twelve months and he opens the doors to a second
stage, which is marked by a new riddle - how to guarantee governance
in this rocked and unpredictable country.

"During the first year of his administration, and supported by
almost 54 percent of the vote, Morales has launched transformational
measures that have unleashed serious controversy in Bolivia, the
region and even among foreign investors.

"... Regarding hydrocarbon nationalization, Cayetano Llobet,
Bolivian political analyst, said 'No one can deny that
nationalization is a merit of the government.'

"The expert emphasized that it was a publicity win for the
government because the long-standing claim for nationalization was
used as a strategy to renegotiate the agreements - in this way, the
president was able to satisfy multinational companies as well as his
followers.

"Nonetheless, while the hydrocarbons nationalization issue no longer
hits the Bolivian papers' headlines, it will have to overcome
important challenges this year for it to be considered a really
successful measure.




"... The Morales administration's major Achilles' heel is the
Constituent Assembly, whose main objective was to 're-found' the
country. After five months of work, it is completely blocked due to
internal reasons.

"The controversy is focused on the voting system - either the
two-thirds or the absolute majority."

- "A new socialism or better democracy"

Leading "Clarin" carries an op-ed story by Mario Toer, professor of
Latin American Policy, Political Sciences, National University of
Buenos Aires, who writes (01/22) "... Chavez has promised
Venezuelans that he wants to lead the country toward 'Socialism of
the 21st century'...

"... The high Venezuelan growth rate has encouraged the emergence of
something like 'a Bolivarian bourgeoisie.' Chavez also promised to
revisit the territorial division and strengthen new communities to
foster the participation of the social sectors that have recently
entered the political scenario.

"Chavez should attend to the complicated political configuration in
the South of the country, which will compel him to be less blunt and
more thoughtful with his Mercosur allies. Others have chosen more
prudent statements. For instance, Bolivian VP Alvaro Garcia Linera
said that what is taking place in his country and the region is
'some deepening of the democratic revolution.'"

- "Argentine VP Scioli receives the US Ambassador"

Atilio Bleta, columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (01/20) "VP
Daniel Scioli received credentials from six ambassadors, among them,
US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne and Spanish Ambassador Rafael
Estrella Pedrola. The US and Spain are two of the countries on which
Argentina places priority in its international relations.

"... The most important visit was that of US Ambassador Wayne, whose
dynamic attitude surprised the diplomatic circles ever since he
arrived in the country. Wayne has already held meetings with most of
the members of the National Cabinet, but he has not met with
Kirchner so far.

"... According to sources close to VP Scioli, Wayne surprised Scioli
because he was informed about Scioli's conversation with US
Secretary of Commerce Carlos Gutierrez during Ecuadorian President

SIPDIS
Rafael Correa's swearing in ceremony.

"Both in his meeting with Gutierrez in Quito and with Wayne
yesterday, VP Scioli insisted that the US 'should not think in terms
of FTAA or no FTAA.' And that, on the contrary, it should have 'a
view of self-criticism and acknowledgement of Latin America,'
because, according to Scioli, 'there have never been so many
democratic governments in the region.'"

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

WAYNE