MEDIA REACTION; US-LED GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM; US VIEWS ON

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001051

SIPDIS

STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC,
WHA/EPSC
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; US-LED GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM; US VIEWS ON
UPCOMING ARGENTINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS; TIES BETWEEN LATIN
AMERICAN GOVERNMENTS AND MEDIA; US REPORT ON TOURIST SAFETY IN
ARGENTINA; 05/29/07


1. SUMMARY STATEMENT

Weekend international stories focus on the US-led Global War on
Terrorism; a US experts' views on the outcome of upcoming Argentine
presidential elections; the relationship between the media and
governments in Latin America; and comments on the US State
Department's Consular Information Sheet on Argentina.


2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS

- "What lies ahead in Bush's war on terrorism"

Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin,"
opines (05/29) "Just a few months ago, Audrey Kurth Cronin, head of
the War Studies Program, University of Oxford, published an essay in
the prestigious International Security, a M.I.T. publication,
analyzing the future of Al Qaeda in light of background information
about the cycles of growth and decline of several terrorist
organizations. One of the conclusions of her work was that 'the war
against Al Qaeda will end even when the global war on terrorism
prevails.

"In other words, Al Qaeda will also suffer - eventually, it will not
be able to escape its own decline and devastation. However, a
pending problem is assessing how much damage it will be able to
inflict until then and how to prevent it. According to Cronin, the
US overacted vis-`-vis the September 11 threat largely because it
lacked experience regarding terrorism in its own territory. One sign
of this is that it was not able to act except to manifest its
reaction in terms of a 'war without a deadline in sight.'

"It is necessary to clarify that Kurth Cronin is not one of the
increasing number of experts that are convinced that the terrorist
threat today is continually being 'inflated' through the White
House's lies or imbecility. According to Cronin's essay, 'the threat
is real and undeniable.' However, she believes it is a serious
mistake for the US to stick to the war approach in response to the
challenge.

"... It is relevant to analyze her essay now that we have
information that US and Iranian delegates discussed yesterday in
Baghdad types of cooperation to resolve the chaos in Iraq. There is
a bit of humility on the edge of humiliation for Washington in this
meeting - sitting to see whether it can achieve some conclusion from
the Iranian theocracy which it has promised at minimum to wipe off
from earth."

- "Washington is concerned over Kirchner's back and forth moves"

Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for
daily-of-record "La Nacion," penned (05/28) "Will he or will she be
the one who will stay after October? This is the first riddle
intriguing government officials, academia and analysts in this city
and on Wall Street. The second riddle is about what has happened in
Argentina in recent weeks as the Government seems to have lost
control of a few political and social threats after four years in
office. And they wonder until what point the Kirchner
administration's back and forth moves will continue.

"... The US Department of State keeps silent. In public, it only
emphasizes its 'excellent' ties to the Argentine Government in the
struggle against terrorism and (non) nuclear proliferation, among
other topics of common interest... But in private, high-ranking
sources of the Bush administration express doubts and lament the
'opportunities' the Government is reportedly missing to consolidate
the country's economic growth and attract investment instead of
'experimenting' 'erroneous' prescriptions, such as price controls.

"... In any event, some experts in Latin American affairs, such as
Riordan Roett, Michael Shifter and Peter DeShazo, agree that the
Government has high chances of winning in October, whether with
Kirchner or Senator Cristina Fernandez. But, just like Mark Falcoff,
from the American Enterprise Institute, they have made some
warnings. Falcoff said 'Argentina's history tends to be cyclical.'
He recalled that all governments 'enjoyed a moment of euphoria and
backing by the masses, and ended up suffering a loss of prestige and
collapse.' And he added 'Kirchner is at a high curve of a cycle. He
can only hope to land more softly than all his predecessors did.'"

- "South America's media in the loop"

Ines Capdevila, international columnist for daily-of-record "La
Nacion," writes (05/27) "In the South America of recent decades, the
relationship between governments and the media has always been
changing. Sometimes, it was a hate relationship, with journalists



chased and murdered. At other times, it was a love relationship with
presidents elected in part, thanks to the support of the media.

"Today, far from that marriage of convenience, the relationship has
another increasingly common feature.

"Mistrustful and suspicious, regional governments are increasingly
adopting confrontation as a strategy with the media.

"The confrontational strategy takes different forms. One is Michelle
Bachelet's closed off posture toward the media, then we have Lula's
irony, which verges on contempt. And the third, Hugo Chavez's
outright war on the media, a road also followed by Evo Morales and
Rafael Correa.

"... According to Marcelino Bisbal, a Caracas expert in
communication, with his recent revocation of RCTV's license, Chavez
(an admirer of the Cuban regime, which is renowned for its
censorship of freedom of expression) has opened a course already
being followed by Correa and Morales, although at an initial
stage."

- "Yankees go home?"

Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" (05/25)
editorializes "Reacting or overacting? The government's testy
response to a routine report on tourist safety from Washington's
State Department was surely timed with an eye to the City elections
now only nine days away - a district where the left-leaning and
anti-US component of the electorate is numerous. In any report on
any nation the US is always going to place the safety of its own
travelers above the feelings of that country as a matter of
professional responsibility but most of the dangers listed in the
report are real enough... Perhaps the only area where the report
strays from strict objectivity into gratuitous alarmism is in
highlighting terrorism in the Triple Frontier where terrorist
activity takes farm more the form of possible fund-raising by
Islamic fundamentalist groups rather than the certainty of
suicide-bombers - i.e., nothing which threatens the tourist
directly.

"But perhaps the most unfortunate aspect is the way the US doubts
are perceived as an insult to t he government rather than the
country as a while with the FM speaking of 'unjustified alarms which
displease the Argentine Government.' The Government is only making
itself ridiculous when it splutters over a report containing such
definitions as 'Argentina is a middle-income country which suffered
a severe economic crisis in 2001-2'... But, how can a Washington
report refrain from any crime alert when US President George W.
Bush's own daughter was mugged in San Telmo only six months ago?

"Government reactions to the US travel safety report are yet another
example of shooting the messenger - the rational response is to seek
to remove the reasons for criticism. If this government prides
itself on being socially progressive and if poverty is one of the
main roots of crime, why not take this report as an invitation to
intensify the quest for social justice?... Yet all in all, the
reactions to Washington's report should be seen as cheap
electioneering rather than as even a blip in bilateral relations."

To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our
classified website at:
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires

WAYNE