MEDIA REACTION; US-LED GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM; US VIEWS ON

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 001051 SIPDIS STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, WHA/EPSC CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION; US-LED GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM; US VIEWS ON UPCOMING ARGENTINE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS; TIES BETWEEN LATIN AMERICAN GOVERNMENTS AND MEDIA; US REPORT ON TOURIST SAFETY IN ARGENTINA; 05/29/07 ¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT Weekend international stories focus on the US-led Global War on Terrorism; a US experts' views on the outcome of upcoming Argentine presidential elections; the relationship between the media and governments in Latin America; and comments on the US State Department's Consular Information Sheet on Argentina. ¶2. OPINION PIECES AND EDITORIALS - "What lies ahead in Bush's war on terrorism" Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," opines (05/29) "Just a few months ago, Audrey Kurth Cronin, head of the War Studies Program, University of Oxford, published an essay in the prestigious International Security, a M.I.T. publication, analyzing the future of Al Qaeda in light of background information about the cycles of growth and decline of several terrorist organizations. One of the conclusions of her work was that 'the war against Al Qaeda will end even when the global war on terrorism prevails. "In other words, Al Qaeda will also suffer - eventually, it will not be able to escape its own decline and devastation. However, a pending problem is assessing how much damage it will be able to inflict until then and how to prevent it. According to Cronin, the US overacted vis-`-vis the September 11 threat largely because it lacked experience regarding terrorism in its own territory. One sign of this is that it was not able to act except to manifest its reaction in terms of a 'war without a deadline in sight.' "It is necessary to clarify that Kurth Cronin is not one of the increasing number of experts that are convinced that the terrorist threat today is continually being 'inflated' through the White House's lies or imbecility. According to Cronin's essay, 'the threat is real and undeniable.' However, she believes it is a serious mistake for the US to stick to the war approach in response to the challenge. "... It is relevant to analyze her essay now that we have information that US and Iranian delegates discussed yesterday in Baghdad types of cooperation to resolve the chaos in Iraq. There is a bit of humility on the edge of humiliation for Washington in this meeting - sitting to see whether it can achieve some conclusion from the Iranian theocracy which it has promised at minimum to wipe off from earth." - "Washington is concerned over Kirchner's back and forth moves" Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for daily-of-record "La Nacion," penned (05/28) "Will he or will she be the one who will stay after October? This is the first riddle intriguing government officials, academia and analysts in this city and on Wall Street. The second riddle is about what has happened in Argentina in recent weeks as the Government seems to have lost control of a few political and social threats after four years in office. And they wonder until what point the Kirchner administration's back and forth moves will continue. "... The US Department of State keeps silent. In public, it only emphasizes its 'excellent' ties to the Argentine Government in the struggle against terrorism and (non) nuclear proliferation, among other topics of common interest... But in private, high-ranking sources of the Bush administration express doubts and lament the 'opportunities' the Government is reportedly missing to consolidate the country's economic growth and attract investment instead of 'experimenting' 'erroneous' prescriptions, such as price controls. "... In any event, some experts in Latin American affairs, such as Riordan Roett, Michael Shifter and Peter DeShazo, agree that the Government has high chances of winning in October, whether with Kirchner or Senator Cristina Fernandez. But, just like Mark Falcoff, from the American Enterprise Institute, they have made some warnings. Falcoff said 'Argentina's history tends to be cyclical.' He recalled that all governments 'enjoyed a moment of euphoria and backing by the masses, and ended up suffering a loss of prestige and collapse.' And he added 'Kirchner is at a high curve of a cycle. He can only hope to land more softly than all his predecessors did.'" - "South America's media in the loop" Ines Capdevila, international columnist for daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (05/27) "In the South America of recent decades, the relationship between governments and the media has always been changing. Sometimes, it was a hate relationship, with journalists chased and murdered. At other times, it was a love relationship with presidents elected in part, thanks to the support of the media. "Today, far from that marriage of convenience, the relationship has another increasingly common feature. "Mistrustful and suspicious, regional governments are increasingly adopting confrontation as a strategy with the media. "The confrontational strategy takes different forms. One is Michelle Bachelet's closed off posture toward the media, then we have Lula's irony, which verges on contempt. And the third, Hugo Chavez's outright war on the media, a road also followed by Evo Morales and Rafael Correa. "... According to Marcelino Bisbal, a Caracas expert in communication, with his recent revocation of RCTV's license, Chavez (an admirer of the Cuban regime, which is renowned for its censorship of freedom of expression) has opened a course already being followed by Correa and Morales, although at an initial stage." - "Yankees go home?" Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" (05/25) editorializes "Reacting or overacting? The government's testy response to a routine report on tourist safety from Washington's State Department was surely timed with an eye to the City elections now only nine days away - a district where the left-leaning and anti-US component of the electorate is numerous. In any report on any nation the US is always going to place the safety of its own travelers above the feelings of that country as a matter of professional responsibility but most of the dangers listed in the report are real enough... Perhaps the only area where the report strays from strict objectivity into gratuitous alarmism is in highlighting terrorism in the Triple Frontier where terrorist activity takes farm more the form of possible fund-raising by Islamic fundamentalist groups rather than the certainty of suicide-bombers - i.e., nothing which threatens the tourist directly. "But perhaps the most unfortunate aspect is the way the US doubts are perceived as an insult to t he government rather than the country as a while with the FM speaking of 'unjustified alarms which displease the Argentine Government.' The Government is only making itself ridiculous when it splutters over a report containing such definitions as 'Argentina is a middle-income country which suffered a severe economic crisis in 2001-2'... But, how can a Washington report refrain from any crime alert when US President George W. Bush's own daughter was mugged in San Telmo only six months ago? "Government reactions to the US travel safety report are yet another example of shooting the messenger - the rational response is to seek to remove the reasons for criticism. If this government prides itself on being socially progressive and if poverty is one of the main roots of crime, why not take this report as an invitation to intensify the quest for social justice?... Yet all in all, the reactions to Washington's report should be seen as cheap electioneering rather than as even a blip in bilateral relations." To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our classified website at: http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires WAYNE