BLUE DANUBE: POLITICAL COMMENTATORS' MEETING WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000992 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/17/2012 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM HU SUBJECT: BLUE DANUBE: POLITICAL COMMENTATORS' MEETING WITH FORMER SECRETARY ALBRIGHT Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI: REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Former Secretary Albright's breakfast with Hungarian political commentators June 14 reflected consensus across the political spectrum that Hungary is still struggling practically and psychologically with the responsibilities of its accession into the Euro-Atlantic mainstream. ¶2. (C) Opening discussion by looking back on her long connection to the region, Secretary Albright asked for candid views as to whether Hungary still regarded the future with the same optimism as it had in the 90s. ¶3. (C) Despite their broad spectrum of political affiliation, invitees were unanimous in expressing concern over Hungary's present direction. Political Science Professor (and FIDESZ foreign policy advisor) Tamas Magyarics commented that the parties, the media, and academia have all been complicit in creating "2 Hungaries" by exacerbating Hungary's deep political schism. He believes Hungarians remain "educated provincials," uncomfortable looking forward, "underwhelmed" by the benefits of membership in NATO and the EU, and unable to rely on civil society to bridge the yawning gap between the left and the right. ¶4. (C) Former Hungarian Representative in Brussels Peter Balazs commented that "Hungary looks terrible from the EU's perspective." "Violence in the streets" had sullied Hungary's reputation, and both the European Peoples Party and the Socialist International had strong reservations about their local political affiliates. Balazs described the present government as "undistinguished at best," assessing that "only the Minister of Agriculture is respected by all parties." He warned in closing that integration into Euro-Atlantic structures "is making things worse" because now "Hungarians feel insignificant both within Europe and within a globalizing world." ¶5. (C) Istvan Gyarmati, Director of the International Center for Democratic Transition (ICDT),observed that Hungary continues to suffer from "institutional and individual immaturity" as it attempts to develop a sense of "national and personal sovereignty" on a "foundation of paternalism." Referring to the "delicate balance of lustration," Gyarmati highlighted the sense that Hungary had not demanded appropriate accountability from the old regime in 1989 and "cannot do so 17 years later." He emphasized the stylistic similarities between PM Gyurcsany and Viktor Orban, describing both as products of "the breakdown of the system." ¶6. (C) This pessimism contrasted in part with Secretary Albright's meeting with FM Goncz, who expressed her opinion that Hungary is still "strongly rooted" in the Euro-Atlantic community and working to expand NATO and the EU, especially in the Balkans. Expressing concern over "perfectly horrible" behavior by Moscow, Secretary Albright commented that "the saddest thing of all would be for Hungary to neutralize itself by being more concerned about Russia's interests than your own." She appealed to Hungary to play an important part in "managing Russia's devolution" and avoiding the "return to spheres of influence." FM Goncz joked in closing that she would "move Hungary someplace else in the world" if she could. x. (C) Comment: As one participant in the breakfast later joked, "we're always pessimistic ... but this time we're right." There is something to that: Hungarian contacts across the political spectrum are talking increasingly - though not often to each other - about the dividing lines between the right and the left, between the rich and the poor, and between the capital and the regions. As they concede, these are all issue of long-standing. As they warn, however, Hungary's current malaise contrasts with economic improvements in the region. Even when the pessimism flies in the face of the objective statistics, unreasonably dark perceptions and unreasonably high expectations continue to drive the debate. As contacts on both sides of the aisle have observed, this trend may also be driving Hungarians away from political participation. With frustration on the rise, popular disaffection is directed less at the opposing party and increasingly at "the system" writ large. End Comment. FOLEY