PAY ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN:

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000947 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2012 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR HU SUBJECT: PAY ATTENTION TO THE MAN BEHIND THE CURTAIN: FIDESZ FACTION LEADER TIBOR NAVRACSICS Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) FIDESZ Parliamentary Faction Leader Tibor Navracsics is rapidly emerging from relative obscurity to national political prominence. He is amassing influence within the party for his mastery of the issues and assuming a higher public profile as the opposition's spokesperson in Parliament. THE QUIET MAN ¶2. (C) Since FIDESZ announced its "excommunication" policy of walking out on PM Gyurcsany's remarks in Parliament, Navracsics has remained the party's sole representative and single voice on the floor. Though long seen - and largely underestimated - as a policy wonk, he has done the job quite deftly, combining confrontation and compromise. He gave an impassioned rebuttal to the Prime Minister's imputations of anti-Semitism among the opposition, for example, openly defying Gyurcsany to "name one member of this party whom you believe to be an anti-Semite." ¶3. (C) At the same time, members of the MSZP and SZDSZ have let us know privately that Navracsics is someone they can - and do - work with behind the scenes. Such moderation is rare within Orban's party, which often demands more personal loyalty than substantive consistency. Indeed, politicians rarely run to the center here, and Navracsics is aware that his attempts to find a moderate position are the exception rather than the rule. As he himself quipped recently to the Ambassador, "you only like me because I'm moderate." ¶4. (C) But there is more to like. Navracsics has clearly taken advantage of his unique position as FIDESZ's sole voice in Parliament to master a host of legal, economic, and foreign policy issues. In a party that tends to stove-pipe its substantive responsibilities, Navracsics is as comfortable talking about taxation as he is military reform. He is widely credited with pressing the party to do more than simply oppose the government's initiatives, and FIDESZ's latest campaign platform, a 100-page volume entitled "Our Future," is seen as his brain-child. His popularity has grown, and he is now among Hungary's ten most popular political figures, far outstripping the PM and others within his own party. THE QUOTABLE MAN ¶5. (C) He is also comfortable talking to the media. With Orban often "unavailable" for comment, Navracsics is increasingly in the domestic and foreign press. He is also markedly more visible on the Budapest circuit, and is one of the few FIDESZ officials who will come to meetings unaccompanied. He is also clinical and exceptionally candid in conversation, as when he openly previewed the party's political strategy - and likely leadership line-up - in a meeting with Ambassador Foley months before the event. ¶6. (C) A recent day-long tour of his native Dunatul region gave us new insights into Navracsics' style. Navracsics joined Ambassador Foley at a panel discussion on women's empowerment, discussed foreign investment opportunities with municipal and regional officials, toured the American Corner, and focused on the need to improve coordination among the resort communities around Lake Balaton to attract more tourism revenue. Always soft-spoken and low-key, Navracsics let others take the lead but subtly guided the conversation to underscore FIDESZ's key themes. Though not in the spot-light, Navracsics was clearly in the lead. SURPRISE, SURPRISE ¶7. (C) Navracsics is hardly an overnight sensation. Indeed, his rise has been a long time coming. A university classmate of Orban's and a fellow founding member of FIDESZ, he has served almost exclusively in staff and think-tank positions and was elected to parliament from the party list rather than as a representative of an electoral district. His selection as FIDESZ's parliamentary faction leader after the 2006 elections came as a surprise and was only made possible by the deterioration in the relationship between Orban and the incumbent, Janos Ader. ¶8. (C) The surprises have kept coming. As FIDESZ insiders and outside observers survey the field, Navracsics' name is being mentioned seriously as a potential Prime Ministerial candidate. Some believe he will receive Orban's blessing to run if FIDESZ's prospects look dim, thus sparing Orban from a third electoral defeat. Others, including FIDESZ MP and Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Zsolt Nemeth, suggest that Navracsics might be the party's candidate in the BUDAPEST 00000947 002 OF 002 event of early elections. (Comment: Although both scenarios seem improbable, neither is impossible and Navracsics' stock is clearly on the rise. End Comment.) ¶9. (C) Biographic Notes: Tall and spare, Navracsics collapsed on the floor of Parliament earlier this year due to what was described as a "viral illness." Though he returned to the office within a week, his friends note that he works 60 - 80 hours a week and observe that he "always looks tired." He is reserved and almost courtly, but has a sharp sense of humor and was the only prominent FIDESZ politician to leave the convention center to mingle with the general public during their recent party congress. His family's roots are in Hercegovina (a region he refers to as being "famous for two things: snakes and Ustashe"),and he chatted comfortably in Croatian with a translator and emboff during the Dunatul trip. He is frequently sighted on the Budapest trams on his way to Parliament, often grading student papers from a class he teaches at a local university. Navracsics has visited the US and speaks excellent though slightly accented English. FOLEY