CANDID IN CAMERA: FIDESZ FACTION LEADER NAVRACSICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000282 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2012 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU SUBJECT: CANDID IN CAMERA: FIDESZ FACTION LEADER NAVRACSICS ON OPPONENTS IN AND OUT OF THE PARTY REF: A) BUDAPEST 226 AND PREVIOUS B) 06 BUDAPEST 2229 Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: FIDESZ Parliamentary Faction Leader Tibor Navracsics outlined his ongoing efforts to shift the party's focus from politics to policies in a meeting with Ambassador Foley February 23. Navracsics downplayed the prospects for "fireworks" initiated by FIDESZ on March 15, detailed the emerging factions within his own party, and shared his candid assessment of the "reform communist" MSZP leadership. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In a private meeting with Ambassador Foley, an expansive and thoughtful Navracsics minimized the chances of violence on March 15 (ref a),stating that any "excitement" would be "started by the authorities." He added that FIDESZ is planning to have its rally in the evening, in part to avoid any conflict with government-sponsored events. In subsequent public statements, Navracsics indicated that FIDESZ officials might even attend the official ceremonies. FROM ELECTORAL WALK-OVER TO PARLIAMENTARY WALK-OUT ¶3. (C) Reviewing his nearly one year as parliamentary faction leader, Navracsics confided that he had found the party "defeated in mind and in spirit" after last year's parliamentary elections. Although the overall picture remains "somber and tense," he is positive regarding the progress made in moving the party's focus from politics to policy. He conceded that the present political gridlock is likely to remain, however, noting that "the government can use its majority to have its own way and the opposition sees no reason to ease the government's burden." He predicted that the current "excommunication" policy of walking out on PM Gyurcsany's speeches in Parliament ("and then walking right back in") will continue, but explained that the practice was "more symbolic than practical" in its impact and is "the least disruptive step we could have taken." WHO'S WHO IN FIDESZ ¶4. (C) Analyzing his own party, Navracsics described FIDESZ's evolution from a small cadre from the same generation to a broader spectrum of membership. He cited MP Laszlo Kover as an example of the party's more "radical" members and MPs Mihaly Varga and Zoltan Pokorni as "moderates," though he sees Pokorni as "fading." Orban, he concluded, is "shifting ... as always." When asked about the party's process of identifying and promoting talent from the local to the national level, Navracsics described popular Debrecen Mayor Lajos Kosa and Budapest District V Mayor Antal Rogan as "local heroes," noting that they are not "new faces" but had focused on local governance to date. He sees no reason why "Kosa couldn't be Prime Minister one day." ¶5. (C) Navracsics described a simple party structure with "limited spin doctors." He said the party's executive committee, including himself, Pokorni, Varga, and Kosa, strove for consensus but recognized diverse views. He demurred regarding his own future, commenting that "I can stay if I want to," but noting that he would not need to make a decision until the summer. KNOWING YOUR ENEMY ¶6. (C) Turning to the other parties, Navracsics saw the upcoming race for the SZDSZ presidency as a battle "between the party's head (Economy Minister Janos Koka) and its soul (MP - and former FIDESZ member - Gabor Fodor)." Koka, he continued, would make the SZDSZ "the business branch of the MSZP" and blur any distinction between the parties, while the more passionate and doctrinaire Fodor is "a good guy ... but not a doer." ¶7. (C) Surveying the MSZP, Navracsics readily conceded that the Gyurcsany government "appears stable." Although the majority could "reconsider" its support for the PM, Navracsics believes the elections of 2010 are the "realistic" focal point for FIDESZ's efforts. Not that the opposition will mute its criticism in the meantime: Navracsics described the MSZP as "Bolshevik in its organization culture" and in its practice of "always asking the public for more time for its policies to achieve success." Even many in the MSZP's "new generation," he added, focus solely on controlling the bureaucracy rather than mastering the issues. Of the most frequently discussed alternatives to Gyurcsany, Navracsics described Defense Minister Imre Szekeres as the "master apparatchik," Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Peter Kiss as an "ideologue" and an "eternal candidate," and BUDAPEST 00000282 002 OF 002 Parliamentary Speaker Katalin Szili as "the most popular." ¶8. (C) As for the independent opposition MDF, Navracsics ruefully remarked that he would "like them as a coalition partner" but that personal conflict with party leader Ibolya David makes rapprochement unlikely. He believes that the MDF's official line of "neither Orban nor Gyurcsany" will be sustainable and that the party will have to "get off the fence" before the next elections. As far as he is concerned, "the door to a coalition remains open." THE UPHILL BATTLE ¶9. (C) In a brief reference to the potential referenda on various aspects of the government's reform package (ref b), Navracsics minimized their chance of success, commenting "7 questions are just too many." He expressed greater confidence in longer-term efforts to build a "new majority" of those who had been disappointed by the Gyurcsany government's policies. His optimism is tempered, however, by the realization that "the people and the press are still more interested in who refused to shake who's hand" than in the substance of policy. MILES TO GO ¶10. (C) Comment: Rising to his present position largely through his role as a policy advisor, Navracsics is a relative newcomer to Parliament. As FIDESZ faction leader, his formal interventions articulating the party's hard line often strike us as strained. He revealed a far more moderate and cerebral side in private, particularly in assessing the relative strengths of his allies and his adversaries. He is correct in assessing the continued focus on politics and personalities, but that is nowhere a greater problem than in FIDESZ. Although he has changed the party's slogan to "A New Majority" (from the short-lived "Democracy without Compromise"),he has miles to go in changing the party's culture to realize that vision. End Comment. FOLEY