MAN OF THE HOUR: MSZP CONGRESS ELECTS PM GYURCSANY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000276 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU ASEC SUBJECT: MAN OF THE HOUR: MSZP CONGRESS ELECTS PM GYURCSANY PARTY LEADER Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) PM Gyurcsany asked for and received a strong mandate to lead the MSZP, winning the party presidency with over 89 percent of the vote during the February 24-25 party congress. As predicted, Defense Minister Imre Szekeres and Gyurcsany confidante Ference Juhasz were elected as the party's vice-presidents, with outgoing party president and Minister of Education and Culture Istvan Hiller, Minister of Labor and Social Affairs Peter Kiss, and Istvan Ujhelyi elected to the party's third-tier leadership positions. TOUGH TALK FROM GYURCSANY ... ¶2. (C) The convention hewed closely to the script, with the only major surprise coming when Gyurcsany called for "at least 75 percent support" in the voting as a de facto vote of confidence in his leadership. In a strong 55-minute address February 24, Gyurcsany called on the party to discuss its setbacks as well as its successes in order to "cut the Gordian knot" of problems confronting Hungary. Strongly criticizing the forces of "anti-modernism" and "authoritarian nationalism," he emphasized the contrast between "the forces of reform and regression." Echoing FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban's recent slogan of "one nation, one flag," Gyurcsany asked the party delegates to choose "which flag and what kind of nation." Vowing "not to shy away from confrontation" but to "stand up for moderation and modernity," he vowed to govern "through the parliament and not the beer hall." The choice, he concluded, is between those who believe in "homeland over progress" and those who will work toward "progress for the homeland" (not incidentally the MSZP's new party slogan). ¶3. (C) Other speakers followed Gyurcsany's lead, with party steering committee member Peter Simon decrying "a fight in which one party wears gloves and the other brass knuckles." "If the opposition insists on making this a fight between good and evil, between right and wrong," he noted, "let us have the courage to say that we are good and we are right." AND ABOUT HIS CHALLENGERS ¶4. (C) Gyurcsany's decision to throw down the gauntlet to the convention prompted a flurry of rumors regarding a challenge to his candidacy by Parliamentary Speaker Katalin Szili, whose weekend editorial proposed a more conciliatory approach. Gyurcsany's supporters rallied to the PM, with MSZP parliamentary faction leader Ildiko Lendvai referring to the Szili piece in her observation that "of course there are other paths ... but not that of Hugo Chavez." Another Gyurcsany loyalist questioned whether Szili - who is dismissed as a lightweight by some in the party - "had even written her own editorial." Discussion on the margins was also highlighted by the events in Heves county, where the defection of a local FIDESZ official tipped the local government to the MSZP's favor, and to the death of party delegate of a heart attack on the floor of the convention. GUESTS OF HONOR ¶5. (C) Gyurcsany returned to a more familiar tone in his address on February 25. In a shorter but denser speech, he pledged to renew the party through activist leadership committed to building consensus. Austrian Chancellor Alfred Gusenbauer and Serbian President Boris Tadic made guest appearances, congratulating Gyurcsany on his election and his commitment to reform. (Comment: These invitations were a deft touch, framing reform in Hungary in the European continuum while helping associate Gyurcsany with Tadic's party and its supporters in Serbia's ethnic Hungarian community. End Comment.) WHEN WILL IT END? ¶6. (C) At a private dinner February 25, a tired but upbeat Gyurcsany told Ambassador Foley that "no one" knew about his plans for the congress in advance other than his wife. She expressed considerable consternation at the gamble, pressing him to "at least settle for two-thirds," and both were clearly relieved at their success. Still feeling poorly from an illness that forced him to cancel his schedule late in the week, Gyurcsany looked back on his rousing address Saturday, commenting that "my passion is not just from my fever." Both he and his wife noted, however, that his election will not resolve the government's running battle with the opposition. Citing demonstrations earlier in the day to commemorate the victims of the communist regime, recent vandalism of MSZP headquarters in Eger, and crowds throwing fruit and eggs at her husband at stops in the provinces, she concluded that "I BUDAPEST 00000276 002 OF 002 only wish I could be confident that it will end." GYURCSANY HOLDS SERVE ¶7. (C) Comment: The MSZP achieved its primary purpose of maintaining a united front behind Gyurcsany's personal leadership and his reformist policies. Although his calculated gamble grabbed headlines, some in the party believe he would have received more support without what some perceived as a command and even faction leader Lendvai referred to as scare tactics. Even with the party's broad endorsement, support for Gyurcsany is not necessarily deep. Defense Minister Szekeres confides to us that the PM is widely regarded in the party as "difficult," and former PM Horn has commented publicly that his approach of "alienating all elements of society" has gotten the MSZP into "a hell of a lot of trouble. Although Gyurcsany has now packed the party leadership with members of his cabinet, he still has as many rivals as allies at senior levels. Significantly, the party did not extend additional powers to the party leadership, as Gyurcsany had reportedly sought. That leaves him the man of the hour, but well aware that the path ahead remains long and difficult. End Comment. FOLEY