BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000226 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC HU SUBJECT: BEWARE THE IDES OF MARCH REF: A) BUDAPEST 199 AND PREVIOUS B) BUDAPEST DAILY 2/14 C) 06 BUDAPEST 2531 Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Never at a loss for a national holiday fraught with historical significance, Hungary approaches the March 15 anniversary of its 1848 Revolution with many in the opposition eager to cast their own confrontational policies as resistance to an unjust government. Although PM Gyurcsany has assured the public that there is light at the end of the tunnel on his austerity measures (ref a),a record 72% of Hungarians remain pessimistic about the future. THE RIGHT TO BEAR ARMS? ¶2. (C) Beyond this general sense of negativity, there is heightened concern regarding press reports and internet messages regarding extremist groups acquiring weapons. The authorities are investigating a February 13 incident during which automatic weapons fire was directed at a Pest police station, and have increased security around selected government buildings. As they did with the recent attempt by opposition MPs to dismantle the security fence around Parliament, the government has characterized this incident as "an attack on the fundamental institutions of the Republic" (ref b). Much as the government may perceive political advantage in heightening public concerns - and implicitly tarring political opposition in the process, the far right may seek to inflate the threat in order to make itself appear more than an extremist fringe. FIDESZ spokesmen have disavowed violence, suggesting in Parliament's opening session that the Gyurcsany government is using the pretext of security concerns to create an "imperial executive" (ref a). ¶3. (C) Whatever the political calculation, moderates like Ambassador Istvan Gyarmati, Director of the International Center for Democratic Transition (ICDT),are concerned. Expressing alarm over the prospect of a far right both inclined and equipped for violent actions, Gyarmati has also criticized "our stupid Prime Minister" and questioned the authorities' preparedness for renewed demonstrations in the weeks ahead. MDF party leader Ibolya David has long warned that "the spring will be worse than the fall," predicting demonstrations across the nation rather than just in Budapest. Our other contacts point out that the mild winter and early thaw that helped the government by keeping heating costs down may now hurt them by encouraging larger crowds at upcoming events. Although the government is now indicating that the PM may not officiate at any major commemorations on March 15 - likely in hopes of depriving the opposition of an event to protest - this may not deter either legitimate demonstrators or the smaller, more violent fringe. ALONE IN THE CROWD? ¶4. (C) FIDESZ's evening rally at Budapest's Millenium Park February 16 may serve as a dress rehearsal for March. The party is billing the event as Orban's "state of the nation" address, and rumors have rental buses bringing their supporters in from their provincial strongholds to attend. 5.. (C) Orban's ultimate intentions remain unclear even to many within the party. Moderate FIDESZ members are disturbed by his repeated brinksmanship; MP Gabor Tamas Nagy, for example, could only smile ruefully as foreign ambassadors discussed the opposition's continued "excommunication" policy at a recent dinner hosted by Ambassador Foley. By contrast, more extreme members of FIDESZ are discontented with Orban's seeming unwillingness to go beyond the point of no return. One right-wing figure recently commented that the party should "just change its name to the party of traitors." As some within the party have pointed out, Orban's last major public address failed to draw a significant crowd ... or please those who did show (ref c). ¶6. (C) Comment: Both the February 16 event and the party's strategy for March highlight Orban's fundamental dilemma: his uncertainty regarding his continued appeal to draw large crowds out into the streets ... and his ability to send the faithful and fringe home if they do turn out. End Comment. FOLEY