LET THE GAMES BEGIN: PARLIAMENT RETURNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000199

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DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2012
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON HU
SUBJECT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN: PARLIAMENT RETURNS

REF: BUDAPEST 155 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI


1. (C) Summary: Parliament returned for its first session of
2007 on February 12. Although the formal docket called for
discussion of issues ranging from the Riga Summit to the
confirmation of Constitutional Court judges, the event was
dominated by Prime Minister Gyurcsany's opening address and
responses across the political spectrum. When substance
intruded, it often revolved around initiatives for middle
class Hungarians, who are increasingly seen as potential
swing voters. With the PM relying more on rhetorical
flourishes than facts and the opposition resorting
immediately to a walk-out, MDF leader Ibolya David summed up
the day by commenting to the gallery "Happy New Year ... and
what has really changed?" End Summary.

GYURCSANY PITCHES; OPPOSITION WALKS


2. (C) Pre-empted by a walk-out by the opposition bloc,
Gyurcsany underscored the necessity of reform to ensure
Hungary's future, emphasizing that "a day of reckoning is
inevitable" but promising that "a bright future is within our
reach." The government's austerity measures are working, but
reforming the economy is the first step of reforming
Hungarian society. Describing delay as "taking a pain-killer
rather than real medicine, he called for (largely
unspecified) investment in eduction, research and
development, anti-poverty programs, transportation, and
health care. "The real scandal," he asserted in an oblique
reference to his infamous speech last year, is Hungary's
record in foreign language fluency, life expectancy, and
child poverty." Though he cited full European integration
as the goal, he stated that he will "fight anyone - even
Brussels - to safeguard our market and our products."


3. (C) In brief references to foreign policy, Gyurcsany
reiterated his commitment to increasing military capabilities
to engage in the GWOT and to decreasing Hungary's dependence
on foreign energy supplies. He pledged to release detailed
plans on pensions, and referred to five "flagship"
initiatives including pre-kindergarten and continuing
education, regional development, research communities, and
small and medium enterprises.

HUNGARIAN POLITICS; AMERICAN REFERENCES


4. (C) Reaction was predictable and often pointed. Speaking
for FIDESZ, parliamentary faction leader Tibor Navracsics,
compared the PM to "a foreigner who arrives, takes a look
around, tells us what all the answers are ... and then
leaves." He accused the government of creating an atmosphere
of fear in order to avoid accountability, and suggested that
Gyurcsany views "governing merely as a preparation for the
next campaign." MSZP faction leader Ildiko Lendvai responded
that the opposition has cornered the market on
fear-mongering, but warned that "throwing fruit and waving
(nationalist) Arpad flags" won't stop the government from
fulfilling its mandate. "We have months," she continued,
"not years" to "avoid national suicide." If the opposition
wishes to explain to its voters why they are pursuing
"rebellion" instead of reform, she concluded "the majority
will go ahead and govern ... with the assistance of those
members of the opposition who are willing to cooperate with
us." Ibolya David, leader of the moderate opposition MDF,
attacked in both directions. Warning of disastrous
consequences to continued gridlock, she denounced both
FIDESZ's tactics and the government's "eloquent but empty"
rhetoric.


5. (C) American political references echoed throughout the
day. Gyucsany's called on a "silent majority" to support
reform, asserted that "fear is all we have to fear, and
pledged to "leave no child behind." For its part, the
opposition seized on his passing reference to Hungarian
founding father Lajos Batthany by retorting "Ferenc Gyurcsany
is no Lajos Batthany."

"YOU WERE RIGHT, FERI"


6. (C) Gyurcsany enters the spring season partially
recovered but not fully rejuvenated after a long 2006
campaign, and his speech started slowly. In a meeting with
ASEAN Ambassadors February 8, a composed but joyless
Gyurcsany reviewed the political state of play. He
reiterated the major themes of his recent "text" on reform
(while apologizing for the "long boring document"),casting
his goal as fundamental economic, political, and social
change. Although he emphasized his interest in results
rather than "a beauty contest," he stated several times that

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he looks forward to the public "forgiving and forgetting" and
admitting "you were right, Feri" before the next elections.
(Comment: Despite the PM's repeated protestations that he is
indifferent to his popularity, SZDSZ MP Matyas Eorsi remains
convinced that "Gyurcsany really wants to be loved." End
Comment.)

OPPOSITION "IRON FISTED" ... BUT EMPTY HANDED?


7. (C) Gyurcsany enters the political season with some
confidence that "the worst is over." He believes that
reforms have been successful but remain insufficient. He is
prepared to adjust his "methodologies" in order to complete
the process, and believes the "trajectory" of the
demonstrations is headed down while the authorities are
better prepared for all contingencies. He believes that
Hungary "turned back from the abyss" last year and hopes the
"complicated year" of 2007 will lead to a "year of
consolidation" in 2008. He perceives growing discord within
the opposition, commenting that Orban's "iron fist" may not
be able to surpress his growing number of critics. Indeed,
the decision to walk out before Gyurcsany's speech was
preceeded by a split vote in the opposition caucus. The
FIDESZ leader, Gyurcsany continued, had been disappointed by
the tepid response to his recent protest at Parliament
(reftel),and will be further disappointed if he thinks he
can "force the government to step down." The opposition he
concluded, is too consumed with its "romantic nationalism" to
realize that "Hungary has never had a successful revolution."

SEEMS WE'VE TALKED THIS WAY BEFORE ...


8. (C) Comment: Both the government and the opposition view
the coming year as decisive, whether as the low point to
negotiate before an economic turn-around or as the last
chance to topple a government that is still vulnerable in
this "year of sacrifice." Working to project confidence,
Gyurcsany set new goals but provided few details in his
address, and the opposition's walk-out dashed the faint hopes
of a new start in the New Year. If today's opening session
is any indicator, all parties are beginning to focus on the
middle class, where Hungary's swing voters reside. Today's
opening salvoes will be the first of many; with Orban
scheduled to address an outdoor rally in Budapest February
17, the exchanges will not be confined to Parliament. End
Comment.
FOLEY