LET THE GAMES BEGIN: PARLIAMENT RETURNS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 000199 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/13/2012 TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON HU SUBJECT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN: PARLIAMENT RETURNS REF: BUDAPEST 155 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI ¶1. (C) Summary: Parliament returned for its first session of 2007 on February 12. Although the formal docket called for discussion of issues ranging from the Riga Summit to the confirmation of Constitutional Court judges, the event was dominated by Prime Minister Gyurcsany's opening address and responses across the political spectrum. When substance intruded, it often revolved around initiatives for middle class Hungarians, who are increasingly seen as potential swing voters. With the PM relying more on rhetorical flourishes than facts and the opposition resorting immediately to a walk-out, MDF leader Ibolya David summed up the day by commenting to the gallery "Happy New Year ... and what has really changed?" End Summary. GYURCSANY PITCHES; OPPOSITION WALKS ¶2. (C) Pre-empted by a walk-out by the opposition bloc, Gyurcsany underscored the necessity of reform to ensure Hungary's future, emphasizing that "a day of reckoning is inevitable" but promising that "a bright future is within our reach." The government's austerity measures are working, but reforming the economy is the first step of reforming Hungarian society. Describing delay as "taking a pain-killer rather than real medicine, he called for (largely unspecified) investment in eduction, research and development, anti-poverty programs, transportation, and health care. "The real scandal," he asserted in an oblique reference to his infamous speech last year, is Hungary's record in foreign language fluency, life expectancy, and child poverty." Though he cited full European integration as the goal, he stated that he will "fight anyone - even Brussels - to safeguard our market and our products." ¶3. (C) In brief references to foreign policy, Gyurcsany reiterated his commitment to increasing military capabilities to engage in the GWOT and to decreasing Hungary's dependence on foreign energy supplies. He pledged to release detailed plans on pensions, and referred to five "flagship" initiatives including pre-kindergarten and continuing education, regional development, research communities, and small and medium enterprises. HUNGARIAN POLITICS; AMERICAN REFERENCES ¶4. (C) Reaction was predictable and often pointed. Speaking for FIDESZ, parliamentary faction leader Tibor Navracsics, compared the PM to "a foreigner who arrives, takes a look around, tells us what all the answers are ... and then leaves." He accused the government of creating an atmosphere of fear in order to avoid accountability, and suggested that Gyurcsany views "governing merely as a preparation for the next campaign." MSZP faction leader Ildiko Lendvai responded that the opposition has cornered the market on fear-mongering, but warned that "throwing fruit and waving (nationalist) Arpad flags" won't stop the government from fulfilling its mandate. "We have months," she continued, "not years" to "avoid national suicide." If the opposition wishes to explain to its voters why they are pursuing "rebellion" instead of reform, she concluded "the majority will go ahead and govern ... with the assistance of those members of the opposition who are willing to cooperate with us." Ibolya David, leader of the moderate opposition MDF, attacked in both directions. Warning of disastrous consequences to continued gridlock, she denounced both FIDESZ's tactics and the government's "eloquent but empty" rhetoric. ¶5. (C) American political references echoed throughout the day. Gyucsany's called on a "silent majority" to support reform, asserted that "fear is all we have to fear, and pledged to "leave no child behind." For its part, the opposition seized on his passing reference to Hungarian founding father Lajos Batthany by retorting "Ferenc Gyurcsany is no Lajos Batthany." "YOU WERE RIGHT, FERI" ¶6. (C) Gyurcsany enters the spring season partially recovered but not fully rejuvenated after a long 2006 campaign, and his speech started slowly. In a meeting with ASEAN Ambassadors February 8, a composed but joyless Gyurcsany reviewed the political state of play. He reiterated the major themes of his recent "text" on reform (while apologizing for the "long boring document"),casting his goal as fundamental economic, political, and social change. Although he emphasized his interest in results rather than "a beauty contest," he stated several times that BUDAPEST 00000199 002 OF 002 he looks forward to the public "forgiving and forgetting" and admitting "you were right, Feri" before the next elections. (Comment: Despite the PM's repeated protestations that he is indifferent to his popularity, SZDSZ MP Matyas Eorsi remains convinced that "Gyurcsany really wants to be loved." End Comment.) OPPOSITION "IRON FISTED" ... BUT EMPTY HANDED? ¶7. (C) Gyurcsany enters the political season with some confidence that "the worst is over." He believes that reforms have been successful but remain insufficient. He is prepared to adjust his "methodologies" in order to complete the process, and believes the "trajectory" of the demonstrations is headed down while the authorities are better prepared for all contingencies. He believes that Hungary "turned back from the abyss" last year and hopes the "complicated year" of 2007 will lead to a "year of consolidation" in 2008. He perceives growing discord within the opposition, commenting that Orban's "iron fist" may not be able to surpress his growing number of critics. Indeed, the decision to walk out before Gyurcsany's speech was preceeded by a split vote in the opposition caucus. The FIDESZ leader, Gyurcsany continued, had been disappointed by the tepid response to his recent protest at Parliament (reftel),and will be further disappointed if he thinks he can "force the government to step down." The opposition he concluded, is too consumed with its "romantic nationalism" to realize that "Hungary has never had a successful revolution." SEEMS WE'VE TALKED THIS WAY BEFORE ... ¶8. (C) Comment: Both the government and the opposition view the coming year as decisive, whether as the low point to negotiate before an economic turn-around or as the last chance to topple a government that is still vulnerable in this "year of sacrifice." Working to project confidence, Gyurcsany set new goals but provided few details in his address, and the opposition's walk-out dashed the faint hopes of a new start in the New Year. If today's opening session is any indicator, all parties are beginning to focus on the middle class, where Hungary's swing voters reside. Today's opening salvoes will be the first of many; with Orban scheduled to address an outdoor rally in Budapest February 17, the exchanges will not be confined to Parliament. End Comment. FOLEY