SCENE-SETTER FOR WHA P/DAS SHAPIRO'S VISIT TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 000177 SIPDIS SIPDIS WHA FOR P/DAS SHAPIRO; EUR/SCE FOR MICHELLE LABONTE E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/06/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV HU SUBJECT: SCENE-SETTER FOR WHA P/DAS SHAPIRO'S VISIT TO HUNGARY Classified By: POL/C ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (C) Your visit coincides with the first parliamentary session of the year, which will likely bring renewed friction between the center-left coalition government of Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany and the opposition, led by former PM Viktor Orban. The running battle over the government's reform program prompted large demonstrations in the fall, and there is the broad sense that 2007 will be a year of economic challenges and political conflict. ¶2. (C) Foreign policy has been largely shielded from this rancorous debate, with strong consensus behind NATO and EU membership across the political spectrum, including support for Hungary's leadership of a Provincial Reconstruction Team in Afghanistan. But interest in foreign affairs is neither broad nor deep. Hungary has shown little interest in issues where it does not perceive a direct national interest; Budapest is often content to join the EU consensus ... and subject to criticism from the traditional EU powers when it does not. This attitude contrasts sharply with the activism of the Hungarian Ambassador in Washington, and you should be prepared to find more yellow lights than green in your meetings here. Your visit will help bring the GoH out of its shell and to encourage its constructive engagement in the international community by making the example of its transition available to others. ¶3. (C) Cuba is a rare issue on which Budapest has left the herd, moving quietly and cautiously to promote a democratic transition. They regard their diplomatic presence in Havana and their long-standing ties to Cuba as their best assets in this endeavor, and have resisted initiatives they believe will win "applause from Washington" at the expense of their ability to engage on the ground. Their modest steps to date have aroused considerable ire in Havana, including the recent withdrawal of the Cuban Ambassador. They have also met with criticism from other EU capitals. They have pinned considerable hopes on their ambassador-designate for Cuba, a former reporter with a strong regional background, who they believe will bring both a new activism and strong PD experience to their mission ... if he receives agrement. You will have the opportunity to meet with him during your call at the MFA. ¶4. (C) Venezuela will be another issue of interest in your meetings. The Hungarian opposition does include anti-American voices, and Chavez has captured the attention of those who are concerned by perceived American hegemony or nostalgic for the Non-Aligned Movement. ¶5. (C) Your schedule will include the following: Lunch with Ambassador Istvan Gyarmati: An informal but influential advisor to the both the MFA and MOD as well as Director of the International Center for Democratic Transition (ICDT),Gyarmati jokes that he "has so many hats I forget which one I'm wearing." He is a committed trans-Atlanticist, but aware of the importance of keeping the ICDT distinct from US policy initiatives. The ICDT was formed in 2005 to serve as a non-partisan source of expertise for countries in transition, and has become the second-larget NGO in Hungary, with projects planned in Europe, Asia, and Africa. It has received strong endorsement from President Bush and Secretary Rice, but is now focusing on the challenges of implementing its ambitious agenda. Its attempts to undertake projects in Cuba have been star-crossed, with the Cuban government protesting their project proposals and European partners objecting to both their focus on Cuba and their perceived collusion with the U.S. The ICDT is accordingly shifting its focus to a less controversial proposal in Bolivia, but Gyarmati remains an excellent source of information regarding both the GoH and the broader European scene. Meeting with MPs Janos Horvath (FIDESZ) and Jozsef Kozma (MSZP): Representing the opposition and the majority, respectively, Horvath and Kozma will welcome your overview of Latin American issues with particular focus on Cuba and Venezuela. Both are members of the Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee, which has generally left its partisan disputes at the door and worked to establish an informed voice in the foreign policy debate. Horvath, who ran for office in Indiana in the 1970s, is staunchly anti-communist ... and rather long-winded. Kozma is a mathematician by training and serves as one of the Committee's Deputy Chairs. Both have agreed to take time away from a meeting with their Bundestag counterparts and a formal committee hearing to meet with you. Meeting with MFA State Secretary Laszlo Varkonyi: An E extremely effective career diplomat, Varkonyi has been our primary contact on Cuba in keeping with his "extra-European Affairs" portfolio, and served until very recently as the MFA's de facto Political Director during the prolonged illness of the incumbent. PM Gyurcsany, for example, deferred to Varkonyi's expertise in a meeting with ASEAN Ambassadors February 8. He is planning to visit Mexico (and then the U.S.) in March to meet with the Hungarian Ambassadors to Mexico, the U.S., and Brazil and will welcome your take on the perceived "shift to the left" in the region. (Note: Hungary maintains permanent diplomatic missions only in selected Latin American countries and has recently appointed a "roving Ambassador" to travel to five countries in the region periodically. End note.) He can review Hungary's current assessment of the situation in Cuba and the state of play within the EU. He can also update on Hungary's plans to increase the size of its diplomatic mission in Havana and its ongoing projects to reach out to the opposition. Janos Horvat, their Ambassadorial nominee for Cuba, will join this meeting. Remarks: We are finalizing plans for you to address a group of students specializing in foreign policy at Central European University (CEU),which also enjoys accreditation in New York State. You should have some down time between your MFA meetings and this event. The audience will include students from CEU, from Corvinus University's International Relations Department, from the North American Studies Department at Karoli Gaspar College, and from local American Fulbright scholars and recent IV recipients. They will welcome your informal remarks on U.S. policy in Latin America and responses to questions from the audience. We are also arranging your availability with representatives of the media, likely with Peter Vass of the publication HVG, who has written on Cuba. Questions will likely focus on Cuba, on perceptions of heightened anti-American sentiment in the region, and on whether the U.S. can play a robust international role given our efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Dinner at the Ambassador's Residence: We have invited key Ambassadors including Spanish Ambassador Rafael Valle Garagorri, Mexican Ambassador Jose Luis Martinez Hernandez, and Brazilian Ambassador Jose Augusto Lindgren Alves to discuss the full range of regional issues. Our goal is to highlight the constructive role Hungary can play by offering its experience in political and economic transition and to demonstrate to the Spanish Ambassador that our position on Cuba in particular is consonant with regional views. You will have time to meet with Ambassador Foley for drinks before the dinner in order to review your visit. ¶6. (U) We are working on the requests forwarded by your staff and look forward to your arrival. FOLEY