AN ISLAND OF CONSENSUS: CODEL SIRES FINDS STRONG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001487 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE; WHA FOR SULLIVAN, SHAPIRO, AND MCCARRY E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2012 TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM HU SUBJECT: AN ISLAND OF CONSENSUS: CODEL SIRES FINDS STRONG AGREEMENT ON CUBA Classified By: P/E COUNSELOR ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Senior officials across Hungary's political spectrum pledged strong support for efforts to "bring democracy to Cuba and to bring Cuba to democracy" in meetings with Codel Sires August 29 ) 30. Members of the delegation encouraged Hungary to take an active role within the EU and to use the unique credibility born of its own transition to reach out directly to the Cuban people. The visit helped encourage further cooperation with the GoH and further competition among the parties on the issue. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Throughout their meetings, members of the delegation emphasized the complete support of Members of Congress, the Cuban opposition, and diaspora community for a democratic transition. In meetings and in press appearances, they encouraged continued Hungarian activism within the EU, applauded the GoH's recent decision to accept protected migrants from Guantanamo and expressed appreciation for efforts by the parties to adopt political prisoners. They warned that the regime might attempt "an absolutist transition" with Fidel Castro's death, and underscored the importance of a united international stand in demanding: release of all political prisoners; respect for the freedom of the press; and, rapid, free elections. The delegation urged Hungary to play a sustained and special role in this process by making use of its strong personal ties to Cuba as well as the example of its peaceful transition. A STRONG COMMITMENT BUT A GRADUAL CONCEPT ¶3. (SBU) Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany affirmed his government's commitment to "move forward together" on Cuba. He emphasized the rapid progress made in one year since the government's decision to take a more active role, noting that "a long journey must begin with a single step." ¶4. (SBU) Gyurcsany discussed the prospect of "slow changes" rather than a "dramatic landslide" in Cuba, referring to a "Chinese model" of "permissive economic conditions but no political competition." Drawing on Hungary's experience and touching on "Putin's path" in Russia, he commented that a successful transition would require both a deep social commitment to democracy and talented leadership to manage the process. The challenge, he remarked, is "not making an omelet from the egg ( but remaking the egg from the omelet." "Political changes take six months and economic changes take six years," he concluded, "but social changes take six decades." ¶5. (SBU) Although the PM noted continued differences of opinion within the EU, he also emphasized the strong domestic political consensus behind the GoH's efforts. This was confirmed in meetings with the senior leadership of both coalition and opposition parties. PREPARING FOR A COMMON FUTURE ¶6. (SBU) Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) President Ibolya David voiced her personal commitment to supporting political prisoners in Cuba and noted her efforts with the MFA to press for a reexamination of the UN Human Rights Committee's position on Cuba. Turning to Hungary's experiences in the 1990s, she urged the Cuban opposition to "prepare itself now" in order to "meet popular expectations" and thus "prevent nostalgia for the old system." Ultimately, the opposition must meet the challenge of demonstrating that "a common future is more important than a divided past." FOLLOWING THROUGH ON HUNGARY'S "MORAL OBLIGATION" ¶7. (SBU) Foreign Minister Goncz reiterated her commitment to meeting Hungary's "moral obligation" to provide its experience to the people of Cuba. Although she noted continued "aftershocks" from Hungary's transition and consistent criticism from the Cuban regime, she believes that the example of peaceful change will send a powerful message both to the Cuban opposition and to those now in the government. She also noted that Hungary's new Ambassador in Cuba is proving to be a powerful messenger. The delegation hailed the "immediate change" at Hungary's embassy in Havana, and encouraged outreach to the Cuban military to let them know that "there will be a future for those who do not have BUDAPEST 00001487 002 OF 002 Cuban blood on their hands." ¶8. (SBU) SzDSz MP and MEPP Istven Szent-Ivanyi assured the delegation of his party,s full support for a transition to full democratic rule in Cuba. Noting his own party began with dissidents receiving international support, Szent-Iveny also raised Hungary,s moral obligation to do the same for the Cubans. As a member of the European Parliament, Szent-Ivanyi also highlighted Hungary,s cooperation with Czech and Polish MPs on the issue and called the British good allies. He was optimistic the French may be increasingly sympathetic and termed the Germans &ambivalent. Szent-Ivanyi strongly agreed with the delegation,s message that Spain should not be allowed to dictate EU policy on Cuba. BE CAREFUL AND BE TOUGH ¶9. (C) FIDESZ Party President Viktor Orban welcomed the opportunity to engage in support of the Cuban opposition, an issue "made doubly important" as an example of cooperation with the US. ¶10. (C) Drawing on his own experience and in sharp contrast to PM Gyurcsany's remarks, Orban emphasized that: Free elections must be the first priority, in large part to "prevent the regime from reorganizing itself." The transition will be incomplete and in doubt without steps to address the issue of the former elite's responsibility, specifically by establishing conditions regarding its right to participate in public life. Efforts to address the secret services will be of paramount importance and must "start at the top." The question of restitution must be addressed immediately in order to "legitimize capitalism" and promote entrepeneurship. In sum, the transition will have to "leave the Communists no room to maneuver ) even underground." The new leadership, he continued, "must be careful and must be tough" because regime loyalists will "always sense weakness ( and never change their hearts." "The game," he concluded, "must end." He pledged his personal efforts within the European Peoples Party (EPP) and the Christian Democrat International to increase the public profile of the issue. ¶10. (C) In closing, Orban pledged his cooperation with the Gyurcsany government on this issue, emphasizing that "the solution is the priority" and that the opposition should "accept help from any quarter." Although he is convinced the government is using the issue for its own "international legitimacy," the cause of freedom demands that "the opposition make use of them." ALL THINGS TO ALL PARTIES ¶12. (C) Comment: The issue of Cuba has moved from obscurity to open and active consensus in a matter of months. Indeed, the parties are in clear competition to establish their bona fides on this issue ) a competition we will continue to encourage. That said, Hungarian officials are bringing plenty of baggage on this journey. For the Gyurcsany government, a transition is a gradual ) if not generational ) process. Although the PM's own journey ("from Red to riches" in the words of one observer) may provide a useful example in the Cuban context, it will also make the GoH's approach more cautious and consensual. For the opposition, the issue is in large part a question of principle but also an opportunity to refight Hungary's own transition in preparation for its next elections. ¶13. Codel Sires did not have the opportunity to review this cable before departure from Post. FOLEY