HUNGARIAN VIEWS ON UPCOMING GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 001179 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/NCE MICHELLE LABONTE E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2017 TAGS: EUN ENRG ETRD ETTC KPAL PGOV PREL SOCI HU SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN VIEWS ON UPCOMING GAERC REF: STATE 98749 Classified By: Acting DCM Eric Gaudiosi. Reason: 1.4(b) and (d) -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Hungarian preparations for the upcoming GAERC finds significant harmony with US positions on key issues. Kosovo remains in the Hungarian spotlight with concerns over possible impact on ethnic Hungarians in the Vojvodina with the inevitability of Kosovo's independence. Encouraging the EU to reinforce Serbia's way forward to future EU membership, as well as efforts to enhance democratic reforms with "our strategic partner" Ukraine, highlight Hungary's approach with their two neighbors. Iran is not a promising situation. Praising the President's recent speech on the Middle East, Hungary supports increased international action now; on Lebanon, France leads an EU effort as well as the EU crisis response in Darfur. Hungary believes a New EU Treaty may be possible by December. End Summary ¶2. (C) On July 19, POLOFF discussed anticipated agenda items for the upcoming GAERC on 23 July with Zsolt Pataki, MFA EU Foreign and Security Policy Department Head. His responses by subject follow. -------------- KOSOVO IN THE HUNGARIAN SPOTLIGHT -------------- ¶3. (C) Kosovo: The GOH would like to see a UNSC resolution as the legal basis for any ESDP mission in the region. That said, a unilateral declaration of independence appears more likely at this point and "we have to get prepared for it." The GOH promotes the approach used with Montenegro last year; a referendum, followed by a common EU position and bilateral recognition by individual EU member states. A common EU/NATO position would provide an umbrella under which Hungary could move forward on recognition of Kosovo independence, although preferably not in the first wave. ¶4. (C) Continuing his discussion of Kosovo, Pataki noted that Hungarian minorities living in the Vojvodina express concern about the situation in Kosovo, fearing that Kosovo independence will further radicalize nationalistic groups in Serbia against minorities. Pataki stressed that relations between Hungarians and Serbs living in the Vojvodina are good. He noted however, in the past, when Serbs from other areas of the Balkans moved into the area tensions increased. With repatriation efforts under for those Serbs coming back from Western Europe, and with the Vojvodina as an attractive location due to favorable economic factors, the potential for ethnic confrontations in the region increases. (Note: FIDESZ sources tell us that their contacts in the Hungarian community in the Vojvodina are advising them that "Hungary should not be the first" to recognize Kosovo, but have not argued that Budapest should not do so. End Note.) ¶5. (C) Hungary's message to its EU partners: send further clear messages to Serbia that it has a future in the EU by accepting, in Pataki,s words, "the inevitability of Kosovo independence." Signing the Stabilization and Association Agreement several weeks ago was a good first step; implementation of the agreement and a roadmap to EU integration must follow. ¶6. (C) On Albania, the GoH prefers to await upcoming election results, evaluate the situation, and then decide on next steps. -------------- UKRAINE, A STRATEGIC PARTNER -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite the current state of affairs, Hungary views Ukraine as a strategic partner. Hungary believes that the possibility for EU membership provides an incentive for democratic change but the Ukrainians must decide how this relationship develops. With the current Partnership and Cooperation Agreement expiring next year, development of an enhanced agreement should be a priority EU goal. -------------- IRAN, LITTLE PROGRESS -------------- ¶8. (C) The GOH awaits results of recent Iranian commitments to cooperate with the IAEA, but sees little hope for progress. -------------- -------------- MIDDLE EAST AND LEBANON, SEPARATE AGENDA ITEMS -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) While the recent developments in the Middle East Peace process are not promising, recognition of the new Palestinian government, support for Abbas and unacceptability of Hamas, is the only way forward. Pataki expressed a very positive response to the President's 16 July speech and stated the GOH fully supports increased efforts by the international community, in particular, through the auspices of the Quartet to convince regional leaders to take a positive role in these efforts while encouraging Israel to modify its policies and financially support the Abbas regime. Pataki concurred with the US view that deployment of an international force to the area would be premature in advance of any new diplomatic efforts. ¶10. (C) On Lebanon, Pataki stated it will be separate agenda item, commenting that it is on the brink of civil war. Noting the current constitutional crisis with the presidential mandate about to expire, the EU position is to support the Siniora government. France is leading the EU effort and this week held a meeting outside Paris with representatives of the various parties to work out a way forward on the process to select the next president. Whether they will have any clout on return to Lebanon to influence their parties remains a question. Pataki also stated the international community needs to make a greater effort to cu supply lines supporting Hezbollah. -------------- SUDAN/DARFUR -------------- ¶11. (C) Pataki stated the GOH supports the hybrid UN/AU force and emphasized that the Sudanese government must keep its commitments to the peace plan. Pataki noted that the EU is currently working on a crisis management concept and plans are in the works for an EDSP mission in Chad. According to Pataki, France will provide about half of the planned 2000-3000 troops, opining that, although no commitments yet made, any Hungarian contribution would be fairly small, most likely consisting of medical personnel and forces involved in border monitoring tasks. -------------- CHRISTMAS PRESENT - NEW EU TREATY? -------------- ¶12. (C) Noting the official opening of the conference to work on a new EU treaty, Pataki stated his belief that a new treaty will be signed by the end of the current Portuguese Presidency and ready for ratification in 2008. While Hungary would most likely accomplish the ratification process through the parliament, Pataki stated several countries, among them France, the Netherlands, Denmark, the UK and possibly Ireland, would face the prospects of a national referendum. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶13. (C) During a very busy final week preparing the FM for the upcoming GAERC, Pataki committed almost an hour outlining for the POLOFF the GOH position on the agenda items. Although not the largest member in the choir of 27, Hungarian EU interlocutors appear ready have their voice heard on the issues at hand, singing for the most part from the same sheet of music as the US as MFA State Secretary Varkonyi recently assured Assistant Secretary Fried (reftel). FOLEY