HUNGARIAN FOREIGN POLICY UNDER FIRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 001157 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC FOR ADAM STERLING E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/15/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV HU SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN FOREIGN POLICY UNDER FIRE Classified By: ACTING DCM ERIC V. GAUDIOSI; REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D) ¶1. (U) Just over a year since the second Gyurcsany administration took office, parties, think tanks and the media are evaluating the performance of the government during a turbulent year that many say has changed the dynamics of politics more than any other since the system change. Although the country,s foreign affairs are not scrutinized by the public as much as some other areas of government, criticism of this aspect of the Gyurcsany administration,s work has been remarkably steady and uniform while support has been remarkably muted. This cable examines some of this criticism and introduces some of the new players on the government,s foreign policy team. -------------- The Vision Thing -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Commenting on a year of foreign policy, the conservative online journal Budapest Analyses concurs with several other, mainly opposition, sources when it suggests that Hungary,s foreign policy remains invisible and passive. Going further, Budapest Analyses speaks of &the devastation of the Foreign Ministry8 by the current administration: &the essence of the prime minister,s foreign policy is exhausted in the creation of good PR for his government abroad and in providing lucrative diplomatic positions for his (business partners).8 ¶3. (SBU) Budapest Analyses complains, in general, of a lack of vision in foreign policy; and specifically, of unclear goals in certain key issues. &Hungary does not have a view on the deployment of an American missile defense system in Europe. It is not clear either whether the Hungarian government supports the Nabucco, or the Blue Stream pipelines, or both. (() There is no Hungarian stance with regard to the Ahtisaari-plan and the issue of Kosovo's independence. As regards the issue of Turkey joining the European Union - no Hungarian point of view exists,8 says Budapest Analyses. Conservative commentator Anita Orban (no relation - as she hastens to add) agrees, dismissing the MFA's public silence on the Kosovo issue as "ridiculous." ¶4. (C) In contrast to the frequent and pointed criticism from opposition figures such as Parliamentary Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Zsolt Nemeth, support for the government's policy is both rare and tepid. Nemeth's Deputy, MSZP MP Vilmos Szabo, privately sighs and grimaces in discussing the government's missteps on foreign policy, and European Affairs Committee Chair Matyas Eorsi (SzDSz) believes Hungary is "wandering in the desert like Moses." -------------- New Faces on the Team -------------- ¶5. (U) After long months of rumored changes in the Prime Minister's Office, Gyurcsany has tapped Karoly Banai as Chief Foreign and Security Policy Advisor. Forty-four year old Banai previously served as Hungary,s ambassador on the European Union,s Political and Security Committee and as DCM at their NATO Mission; he will now work out of the Office of the Prime Minister with responsibility for "all issues related to foreign and security policy." A soft-spoken career diplomat who, since his appointment, makes frequent appearances with the Prime Minister, Banai has made a very favorable first impression all around for his candor and for his strong Atlanticist views. (Note: On CFE, for example, Banai has commented that he is "only too happy to disagree with Russia" in order to demonstrate that "we stand unequivocally with our Allies. End Note.) Nonetheless, assuming a position that has essentially been vacant for a number of years, he has what one observer called &an impossible job.8 ¶6. (SBU) With no independent political power, no real staff - or even a permanent office, and a boss prone to impromptu remarks on important questions, Banai may be doomed to failure, some believe. The scope of responsibilities listed as belonging to Banai has also raised the question, &what will the MFA do?8 (To which many in the diplomatic community rejoin &what are they doing now?8) An Embassy contact at the MFA familiar with Banai has indicated that their work will not change following the appointment of Banai. &Karoly Banai will serve more to orient the Prime Minister8 and is, our contact claimed, actually good for the MFA, providing an added channel to the Prime Minister. ¶7. (C) Another variable in the Gyurcsany foreign policy equation is Alexandra Dobolyi, Member of the European BUDAPEST 00001157 002 OF 002 Parliament ) and recently named International Policy Director and International Secretary of the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP). As an MEP since 2004, thirty-five year old Dobolyi certainly brings a much higher profile ) and considerable baggage - to the position. Despite her obvious ambition, there will likely be limits on how much she can get done at the MSZP while shuttling between Brussels and Budapest. Though she considers the Foreign Minister a feeble opponent for influence over Hungarian policy, Dobolyi has herself been weakened by long-standing and widespread rumors re personal life, and by recent public charges that she falsified her CV. -------------- And New Teams in the Game -------------- ¶8. (U) On an institutional level, the Prime Minister receives help from several different bodies. The Teleki Laszlo Institute ) Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a conservative-leaning organization, has metamorphosed into the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, albeit working with a slightly different staff. It receives central funding, is loosely affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and conducts research on basically every aspect of Hungary,s Foreign Policy. Pal Dunai, the Institute,s sardonic director, notes that most of his time is spent writing to the Foreign Minister to follow through on funding commitments. He has been frustrated by his lack of traction, commenting that he only gets two responses: the ones that say &I,m sorry I can,t help ( and the ones that say I,m very sorry I can,t help.8 ¶8. (U) In March, the Prime Minister announced the creation of a Council on Foreign and Security Policy. Headed by mild-mannered international lawyer Laszlo Valki, the group of eight noted scholars, with expertise covering the Arab world, security policy, economics, Russia and the Balkans, is understood to meet regularly with the Prime Minister. Valki has also been used with some frequency to undertake special missions for the PM, such as his recent trip to Washington. He and Banai appear to have a good rapport, with Banai jokingly describing Valki's role as "recommending solutions ... and then recommending solutions to the problems his original recommendations cause." -------------- Comment: What Does Gyurcsany Want? -------------- ¶9. (C) Our contacts are divided on the question of just what type of foreign policy Gyurcsany really wants. Opposition sources including FIDESZ faction leader Tibor Navracsics suggest that the government's statement and actions on Russia result from "a deal" with Moscow to include funding for the MSZP. Even on issues such as Afghanistan and Cuba, FIDESZ has positioned itself to outflank the government by taking even more forward-leaning positions. Constructive critics like Eorsi and Dunai believe that Gyurcsany genuinely wants an activist foreign policy but is now "too isolated personally and eroded politically" to take action. Always inclined to see foreign policy as an extension of domestic politics, under pressure at home he has been willing to sacrifice substance for stylistics. (His recent statements on the EU constitution, for example, angered Poland in exchange for a brief visit by German Chancellor Merkel.) Others in the MFA believe that the PM has concentrated power in his own office at the Ministry's expense, getting "the foreign policy he wants." Critics across the political spectrum believe, however, that it is not necessarily the foreign policy Hungary needs. As Gyurcsany prepares for another trip to Russia and another meeting with Putin, he will carry with him A/S Fried's recent message that "Hungary needs to find its voice." First, it will have to find its bearings. End Comment. FOLEY